Is Liberal Peace Likely in Nuclear Asymmetry?

이진명 한국국제정치학회 2015 The Korean Journal of International Studies Vol.13 No.1

This paper mainly aims to address the question of whether liberal peace is likely in situations of nuclear asymmetry. I assume that a non-nuclear state enters into a trade alliance with a nuclear state to obtain security that the nuclear state is capable of offering. I further assume that a nuclear state enters into trade linkages with a non-nuclear state to obtain trade gains. When nuclear and non-nuclear states engage in disputes, the two states lose security or trade gains. Accordingly, while states in nuclear asymmetry are highly conflict-prone, economic ties in nuclear asymmetry could promote peace by promoting the sharing and exchanging of both economic and security gains. Based on these assumptions, I construct primary hypotheses in a situation of nuclear asymmetry and test these during the period of 1950-2001 under analysis by adopting a logit statistical model. The results support that economic relations in situations of nuclear asymmetry have a significant effect in reducing the likelihood of dyadic disputes, but only when the trading linkages are especially valuable and extensively and mutually dependent. To capture negative evidence, I also construct and examine a rival hypothesis that trade linkages in situations of nuclear symmetry are less likely to lead to reduced conflict. Overall, as expected, the results reveal that economic relations in nuclear symmetry have an insignificant effect on conflict.

Is Liberal Peace Likely in Nuclear Asymmetry?

Jin Myoung Lee 한국국제정치학회 KJIS 2015 The Korean Journal of International Studies Vol.13 No.1

Nuclear Belligerence to Perpetuate Security Dominance

Jinmyoung Lee 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2019 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.26 No.1

This paper aims to examine whether nuclear states are belligerent by using three analytical dimensions which are nuclear asymmetry, enduring rivalry, and major power status. I argue that nuclear states gain an absolute advantage over nonnuclear and tend to perpetuate security dominance by employing military means. My multinomial logit regression analysis using the directed-dyad sample of 1816-2001 reveals that nuclear states are far more likely to initiate threat and use of force against nonnuclear states. In addition, when major powers obtain nuclear weapons, they are more likely to initiate display, use of force, and war against nonnuclear minor targets. Finally, nuclear states are much more likely to initiate display and use of force against their nonnuclear enduring rivals.

북한 3차 핵 실험과 한국 안보의 과제

박헌옥 한국군사학회 2013 군사논단 Vol.73 No.-

The international community is coping jointly with North Korea's provocative act by adopting UN Security Council Resolution 2094 (March 8, 2013) in response to the third nuclear test of North Korea on February 12, 2013. For this refuting UN Security Council Resolution North Korea is escalating security tension on the Korean Peninsula with large-scale military exercises including the live fire training, the cancelation declaration of Korean Armistice Agreement, the abolition of the inter-Korean nonaggression declaration, additional provocative threats, and so on. This study is aimed at drawing the subjects for the security in South Korea regarding the third nuclear test of North Korea. ln chapter 2, the ultimate goal of North Korea's nuclear and missile strategy is analyzed, in chapter 3, the third nuclear test of North Korea is evaluated in terms of the North Korean internal cause, strategy on the Republic of Korea, foreign policy strateg and technical aspects and in chapter 4, the subjects for the security in the Republic of Korea are drawn. The following conclusions have been reached through this study. First, North Korea's nuclear and missile strategy is proceeding 10 terms of the asymmetry strategic weapon, political and psychological threats and negotiation power. Second, North Korea performed the third nuclear test in order to reinforce the weak leadership of a young and inexperienced leader, Kim Jong-eun and raise morale in its military power and hard-liners. Third, North Korea selected the replacement time of the Republic of Korea's President to achieve the essential goal of the communist unification of the Korean Peninsula. Forth, North Korca conducted a nuclear test in time for President Obama's second inauguration in order to negotiate with the U.S. about the nuclear armament reduction by riding on China's coattails. Fifth, increase in the explosive power has been technically identified, but miniaturization, weight reduction and diversification have not been proven yet. Sixth, the subjects for the security in the Republic of Korea arc to realize North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and take all the necessary military and diplomatic steps and to be aware of the capacity of the military reconnaissance, detection and attack and reinforce the Korca-U.S. military alliance and extended deterrence.

Disillusioning Pyongyang’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy: Nuclear Asymmetry, Conventional Posture, and Overdeterrence

황지환 한국국방연구원 2023 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.35 No.4

Does Kim Jong Un need nuclear weapons to deter the United States? Pyongyang has long insisted that nuclear weapons prevent the United States from invading North Korea. But, do nuclear weapons provide Pyongyang with as much deterrent effect as it expects? Has the conventional military posture failed in deterring the U.S.–ROK alliance? This article challenges conventional wisdom on North Korean nuclear deterrence and raises the question of why nuclear weapons do not help Pyongyang improve its deterrence capability. Pyongyang’s pursuit of nuclear deterrence is an overdeterrence. Pyongyang’s presumably assured retaliation is not credible given the United States’ superb nuclear capability. Rather, conventional deterrence has worked on the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang may have other reasons to build up its nuclear capability, but the risks and costs are too high to take. This article also suggests highly important and timely theoretical and policy implications about how to deal with a nuclear North Korea.

북핵 문제와 동아시아 담론

윤여일(Yoon, Yea-Yl) 고려대학교 아세아문제연구소 2018 亞細亞硏究 Vol.61 No.2

본 논문은 북핵 문제와 동아시아 담론의 생산적 접점을 탐색하기 위한 시론이다. 1990년대 초 탈냉전의 국면으로 접어들자 한국지식계에서는 동아시아 담론이 부상했다. 그런데 같은 시기에 북한은 북중동맹이 이완되자 자위 차원에서 핵개발을 서둘렀다. 즉 동아시아 담론과 북핵 문제는 탈냉전과 한중수교라는 시대적 배경을 공유하며 발생했다. 그리고 지난 20여 년 동안 북핵 문제는 한반도의 범위를 초과해 국제화되었다. 그럼에도 그간 동아시아 담론에서 북핵 문제는 전면적인 의제로 부각된 적이 없이 다양한 안보 이슈 중 하나로 나열되는 양상이었다. 북핵 문제는 단순한 무기 개발을 둘러싼 안보 문제만이 아니라 국가 형태의 상이성, 국가 간·국가관계 간 비대칭성, 탈냉전의 추세에도 불구한 동아시아 분단체제의 지속 등 동아시아적 조건과 상황을 집약해 표출하는 문제다. 따라서 동아시아 담론이 축적한 학술적 성과를 활용할 때 북핵 문제에 접근하는 시야는 점증하는 북핵 위기를 현상추수적으로 따라가며 기술하는 데서 그치지 않고 확장될 수 있을 것이다. 아울러 동아시아 담론 역시 북핵 문제를 한반도 문제와 결부시키고 그것을 동아시아의 과제로 전환시키는 과정에서 지역의 학술적 자산이 될 수 있는 계기를 마련할 수 있을 것이다. This study is the current view to search a productive point of contact in the North Korean nuclear issue and the East Asian discourse. With the beginning of the Cold War phase from the early 1990s, the East Asian discourse emerged in the Korean intellectual circle. However, during the same period, North Korea rushed the development of nuclear weapons as a self-defense after the Sino-North Korea alliance was relaxed. That is, the East Asian discourse and the North Korean nuclear issue occurred while sharing the backgrounds of the age - the end of the Cold War and the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China. In addition, the North Korean nuclear issue has become an international affair in the last two decades. Nonetheless, in the East Asian discourse so far, the North Korean nuclear problem was listed as one of various security issues and has not been pointed out as one full agenda. The North Korean nuclear problem is not merely the security issue surrounding weapon development but the issue which expresses the East Asian conditions and situations including the continuance of the East Asian division in spite of different state forms, asymmetry between nations, and the end of the Cold War trend. Therefore, when the academic outcomes accumulated by the East Asian discourse are utilized, the vision toward the North Korean nuclear issue will not remain at chasing the steadily increasing North Korean nuclear problem based on the status quo but can be expanded. Moreover, the East Asian discourse can arrange the opportunity for it to become the local academic asset in the course of connecting the nuclear problem with the Korean Peninsula and converting it into the task for East Asia.

The Republic of Korea Presents a Strong Case to Go Nuclear, A Perspective from Pakistan

( Khurshid Khan ) 한국국방연구원 2023 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.35 No.2

The Ukraine crisis proves that unless a state is militarily strong, it is liable to be quashed if it fails to toe its line with that of a strong neighboring state. The present fiasco in Europe/Asia Pacific is a clear indicator that the future lies with states that can defend themselves independently. It also endorses the realist school which considers the international system, an anarchic system, meaning no higher authority sits above the state that can be relied on. Like Russia against Ukraine, North Korea enjoys a “double asymmetry of power” and maintains an aggressive posture towards the Republic of Korea (South Korea). Due to uncertain American assured backup support with nuclear weapons, South Korea presents a strong case to go nuclear for its survival. Still, one may suggest that in the long-term interests of the region, Pyongyang may be persuaded to roll back its nuclear weapons program and extend greater cooperation towards Seoul. From a theoretical angle, this study has been conducted from the prism of the “rational choice theory” (RCT), focusing on the security concerns of South Korea.

The US-North Korean asymmetrical security dilemma: Past the point of nuclear no return?

Tan Erwin,Park Jae Jeok 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2020 International Area Studies Review Vol.23 No.2

The bulk of literature on the security dilemma has examined the phenomenon within the context of rivalry between great powers of roughly equal strength (for instance, the United States-Soviet nuclear arms race). Yet no study has examined the implications of power asymmetry between a strong power and a weak one when they are facing the security dilemma in their interaction. This manuscript shall examine how the asymmetry of interaction in the United States-North Korean security dilemma has presented repeated obstacles for the United States in seeking the denuclearization of North Korea. The asymmetry of their rivalry has significant implications for how Washington and Pyongyang view one another in their interaction. This asymmetry has created challenges for Washington as well as Pyongyang, as illustrated through this empirical case study’s analysis of how successive United States White House administrations since 1993 have responded to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. In this regard, it is possible the asymmetry of their interaction has become so deeply internalized that North Korea is, effectively, past a “point of no return” insofar as its nuclear program is concerned.

일반논문 : 북한(北韓) 군사전략(軍事戰略)에 관한(寬限) 연구(硏究) -핵개발 이후를 중심으로-

박용환 ( Yong Hwan Park ) 동국대학교 북한학연구소(구 동국대학교 안보연구소) 2010 북한학연구 Vol.6 No.1

남북한은 1950년 한국전쟁이 발발한 이후 지금까지 정전상태를 유지하면서 군사적으로 대치하고 있다. 따라서 북한의 군사적 도발은 언제라도 발생 가능하며 우리는 이러한 위협에 노출되어 있다. 북한은 김정일 정권 등장이후 가장 큰 변화로 볼 수 있는 것은 2006년과 2009년 두 번의 핵실험을 통해 핵무기 제조능력을 국제사회에 공포한 것이다. 북한이 가지고 있는 핵무기 보유 수량은 정확히 파악되지 않고 있지만 북한이 핵실험을 실시한 이상 그 보유 능력에 대해서 국제사회에서도 부인하지 않고 있다. 하지만 우리는 지금까지 북한의 핵문제 대해 정치적 시각으로만 접근했지 군사적으로 우리에게 어떻게 작용할 것인가에 대해서는 소홀히 다루어 왔다. 군사전략 역시 과거 재래식전력을 바탕으로 한 군사전략을 상정하여 북한의 군사도발에 대비하고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 북한이 핵을 보유한 상태에서 군사전략이 어떻게 변화되었고 우리는 여기에 어떻게 대비해야 하는가에 대해 알아보았다. 북한이 핵을 보유한 상태에서 사용 가능한 군사전략으로는 비대칭전략, 대량보복전략, 공세적 공격전략, 중심타격전략, 사이버전략 등을 구사할 것으로 보며 진다. 북한이 핵을 개발하게 된 배경과 핵개발 이후 변화된 군사전략, 그리고 이에 대한 우리의 대응책을 제시하였다. In 1950. South and North Koreas have maintained a state of cease-fire and are confronting each other militarily. Thus, we are exposed to dangerous North Korean military provocations that can occur anytime. After Kim Jong Il`s rise to power, North Korean struck fear into nations abroad through their nuclear tests and nuclear arms manufacturing in 2006 and 2009. The amount of nuclear arms North Korea possess is unknown but after their nuclear bomb testing, the international communities no longer doubt that North Korea actually possesses them. Until now we have dealt with the nuclear issue only from a political point of view, but militarily we have handled the case negligibly in case of an attack. In preparation for further North Korean provocation, a military strategy bill, based on past behavior, has been introduced, Thus, this thesis explores how military strategy has changed and how we ought to prepare in this current state of North Korea possessing nuclear alms. It appears that the military strategies North Korea can use are asymmetric strategy, massive retaliation, offensive strategy, striking the heart strategy, and cyber attacks, ect. This paper illustrates the background on North Korean nuclear development, the military strategies that have changed accordingly, and our countermeasures.

중이온 충돌에서의 상태방정식 및 대칭에너지

홍병식 한국물리학회 2016 새물리 Vol.66 No.12

The RAON is expected to provide extremely rare isotope beams with unprecedented isospin asymmetry for studies of nuclear structure, nuclear astrophysics, and nuclear reaction dynamics. Neutron-rich isotope beams are useful for investigating in detail the nuclear equation of state and the symmetry energy, which are essential for understanding astronomical objects like neutron stars and supernovae. At the RAON, low beam energies below 18.5 MeV/u are suitable for symmetry-energy research at subsaturation densities, and high beam energies around 250 MeV/u are ideal for such research at supra-saturation densities. Some examples of representative observables for studying the symmetry energy are the electric dipole emission, isospin diffusion of charged hadrons, collective-flow parameters, and pion yield ratio. This review article describes a plan for studying the nuclear equation of state and the symmetry energy that can be pursued in heavy-ion collisions at the RAON. RAON은 핵의 구조와 핵천체물리, 핵반응 동역학 연구를 위하여 지금까지 생산한 적이 없는 매우 희귀한 아이소스핀 비대칭 동위원소 빔을 제공해 줄 것으로 기대된다. 중성자 과잉 동위원소 빔은 핵의 상태방정식과 대칭에너지 연구에 매우 유용하며, 이들은 중성자별이나 초신성과 같은 천체물리학적 대상을 이해하는데 필수적이다. RAON에서 낮은 빔에너지 영역인 핵자 당 18.5 MeV 이하는 정상 핵자밀도 이하의 대칭에너지 연구에 적당하며, 높은 빔에너지 영역인 핵자 당 250 MeV는 압축된 고밀도 핵물질의 대칭에너지를 연구하는데 매우 이상적인 조건을 제공해 준다. 대칭에너지 연구를 위한 대표적인 물리분석량의 예로써 이중극 감마선 방출, 하전 강입자의 전하확산 변수, 유체흐름 변수, 파이온 생성비 등을 들 수 있다. 이 해설논문은 RAON의 중이온 충돌에서 계획 중인 핵의 상태방정식과 대칭에너지 연구에 대해 기술한다.