심층 시나리오

윤기영(KeeYoung Yoon),이광형(Kwang Hyung Lee) 미래학회 2019 미래연구 Vol.4 No.2

세상은 끊임없이 변전한다. 미래예측도 끊임없이 변전하는 역동성을 적극적으로 고려해야 한다. 그럼에도 불구하고 대표적인 미래예측 기법의 하나인 시나리오는 미래 역동성을 고려하는 데 한계가 있었다. Three Horizons가 미래 역동성을 고려하기 위한 시각틀을 제공하기는 하나 구체적 방법을 제공하지 않는다. 최근 전쟁게임 등의 방법을 원용하여 미래 역동성을 고려하는 방법론 체계가 미래학계에서 제시되었으나, 하나의 단일 시나리오를 제시하는 데 그친다. 미래의 역동성을 적극적으로 고려하기 위해서는 미래 시나리오는 얕은 시나리오와 깊은 시나리오로 심층적으로 접근해야 한다. 이 연구에서는 심층 미래 시나리오를 작성하기 위한 Deep Scenarios 방법론을 제시했다. Deep Scenarios는 얕은 시나리오, 통합 미래전개도, 깊은 미래 시나리오의 3단계로 구성된다. Deep Scenarios는 맥락성, 역동성, 미래 주체성을 통합적으로 고려하는 3차원 미래예측의 체계를 근간으로 한다. 논문의 후반에 Deep Scenarios를 적용한 사례로 ‘한반도 미래전략’을 들었다. Deep Scenarios는 그 특성상 그 쓰임에 제약이 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 미래전략과 정책의 도출과 계획된 학습에서 일정한 기능을 할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. The world is ceaselessly changing. Thus, it should be taken into account the ever-changing dynamics of the world in futures studies and foresight. Nevertheless, scenario methods, as foresight methods, have not done well in considering future dynamics. Three Horizons do provide a perspective framework for considering future dynamics, but that is all. It fails to perform the method for future dynamics. A methodological framework for considering future dynamics by using methods such as war games has recently been proposed in the futures studies, but only to present a single layer of scenario and couldn’t fold the multi-layer of futures scenarios. To actively consider future dynamics, future scenarios should be approached in depth with shallow and deep scenarios. This paper presented a Deep Scenario methodology for creating in-depth future scenarios. Deep Scenario consists of three stages: shallow, integrated future development, and deep future scenarios. Deep Scenario is based on a three-dimensional foresight methodology that consists of holistic context, futures dynamics, and future sovereignty. This paper includes “the future strategy of the Korean Peninsula” as a case study. The scope of application of Deep Scenario might be limited. Nevertheless, it is contended that Deep Scenarios would be useful in creating futures strategies and policies, and planned learning.

Five 2030 Scenarios for the Family and Related Policy Implications

Hye-kyung Chang,Eun-ji Kim,Young-ran Kim,So-young Kim,Bo-young Sun 한국여성정책연구원(구 한국여성개발원) 2014 Gender Studies and Policy Review Vol.7 No.-

This research has been designed as the second-year project of the four-year Special Research (2011-2014) effort. The main purpose of this current project is to develop potential scenarios regarding families of the future by predicting directions of change. In order to elaborate these scenarios, the five areas of demographic environment, labor and economic environment, science and technology, political environment, and perceptions of the family were singled out as major areas affecting the outlook on the future family. Next, the Delphi technique was applied in order to identify key drivers behind future changes in the family for each respective area. Next, the trend in changes was forecasted for each area and hypotheses were crafted regarding the impact of these changes on the lives of women and their families. Caretaking, inequality, and family values were selected as the main axes of the scenarios, based on a combination of the hypotheses. Next, the three axes were juxtaposed, resulting in a total of eight scenarios from which five were selected. These five scenarios include the conflict between personal values and family life scenario, the polarization of family life scenario, the loose but intimate family scenario, the coexistence of equal society and unequal family scenario, and the maximized familial burden scenario. According to a nation-wide survey of 5,000 people regarding these five scenarios, the loose but intimate family scenario was identified as the most preferred. In order for South Korea to progress toward this scenario, this research suggests reinforcement of social security policy, evaluation of overall care policy and future directions, and refinement of laws and institutions in accordance with the strengthening perception of an individual-oriented family.

수도권 성장관리를 위한 시나리오 플래닝 (Scenario Planning) 기법의 활용방안에 관한 연구

한홍구,장준호 안양대학교 수도권발전연구소 2010 수도권연구 Vol.7 No.-

For urban growth management, we need to forecast and evaluate the volume and location of future developments. Scenario planning is one of the most effective planning tools for the forecast and evaluation. Scenario planning is also helpful as it can diminish the complexity and uncertainty of future, and consider a few plausible futures together by modeling reasonable scenarios. This study aims to draw urban growth scenarios for Seoul metropolitan area in 2025, and to forecast land use changes by scenarios. In conclusion, four scenarios are drawn through the phased processing model and experts interview. The scenarios are divided depending on the difference of population growth pattern or trends, and the spatial density of developments. Urban growth forecasting models are constructed into two types: macro and micro scale, so that they can forecast future growth by scenarios. The macro scale model uses a transformed Shift-Share model using population and employment of 2025(KOSTAT), land use raster map and multinomial logit model. This study suggests pragmatic strategies depending on each of scenarios through literature study on the issues and problems of the existing urban growth management tools, so that they can help forthcoming studies or relevant efforts. This study is meaningful as the following reasons. First, it introduces scenario planning as a growth management tool for Seoul metropolitan area, and suggests possible application forms. Second, this study adopts processing model and establishes four scenarios so as to pragmatically help the Seoul metropolitan area's growth management plans. Third, this study suggests forecasted land use changes in the future based on the each of the four scenarios. They can provide fundamental information also helpful to the plans. Lastly, this study suggests political or pragmatic strategies to actualize or systemize the growth management.

대졸 미취업 청년들의 미래 : 미래 콘텍스트 시나리오 방법론을 중심으로

박승재(Sung Jae Park) 미래학회 2021 미래연구 Vol.6 No.1

기존의 시나리오 방법론은 구체성의 결여와 국가정책의 형성과 추진에 필요한 명확한 방향성을 제시해 주지 못해 국민들의 삶에 중대한 영향을 미치는 5년 내외의 중기 국가정책 수립에 활용하는 데에는 어려움이 있었다. 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해 본 연구는 청년정책 사례를 중심으로 심층 인터뷰를 통해 수집한 담화 콘텍스트를 토대로 수요자 중심의 정책 방안 도출에 유용하게 사용할 수 있는 미래 콘텍스트 시나리오(context scenarios) 방법론을 제시하고자 한다. 즉, 미래 콘텍스트 시나리오라는 방법론적 접근에 중점을 두고 한국의 대졸 미취업 청년들의 미래를 구상하고 설명해 보려는 것이다. 대졸 미취업 청년들의 생활을 질적으로 분석하는 연구에서는 미래사회를 예측하는 거시적인 시나리오보다 청년들의 일상을 반영하는 미시적 콘텍스트 시나리오 기법을 적용하는 것이 더 유의미한 결과를 도출할 수 있다. 청년들의 목소리를 반영한 미래 콘텍스트 시나리오는 불확실한 변수보다 이미 정해진 몇몇 주요 미래 변수들을 통해 상당히 실행가능성이 높은 정책과 미래전략들을 도출해 낼 수 있기 때문이다. 본 논문에서는 대졸 미취업 청년들과 관련한 장기 미래예측보다는 5년 내외의 중기 정책 아이디어를 미래 콘텍스트 시나리오를 토대로 도출하였다. The existing scenario planning lacks specificity and does not provide a clear direction, so it was difficult to use it for mid-term national policy establishment, which has a significant impact on people’s lives. In order to solve these problems, this study intends to present a methodology for context scenarios that can be used to derive consumer-oriented policies based on the discourse context collected through in-depth interviews focusing on the policy of unemployed college graduates. In other words, it is intended to envision and explain the future of unemployed college graduates in Korea, focusing on the methodological approach of the context scenarios. In a study that qualitatively analyzes the lives of unemployed college graduates, it is possible to derive more meaningful results by applying the micro-context scenarios that reflect the daily life of young people rather than the macro-scenarios that forecast the future society. This is because future context scenarios that reflect the voices of young people can derive policies and future strategies that are highly practicable through some key future variables that are already set rather than uncertain variables. In this paper, mid-term policy ideas of 5 years or less are derived based on future context scenarios related to unemployed college graduates.

산림경관천이모델(LANDIS-II)를 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 산림의 생물량 장기변화 추정 연구 -충청북도 영동군 학산면 봉소리 일대 산림을 중심으로-

최영은,최재용,김휘문,김성열,송원경 한국환경복원기술학회 2019 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.22 No.5

This study applied the LANDIS-II model to the forest vegetation of the study area in Yeongdong-gun, Korea to identify climate effects on ecosystems of forest vegetation. The main pur- pose of the study is to examine the long-term changes in forest aboveground biomass(AGB) under three different climate change scenarios; The baseline climate scenario is to maintain the current cli- mate condition; the RCP 4.5 scenario is a stabilization scenario to employ of technologies and strat- egies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; the RCP 8.5 scenario is increasing greenhouse gas emis- sions over time representative with 936ppm of CO 2 concentration by 2100. The vegetation survey and tree-ring analysis were conducted to work out the initial vegetation maps and data for operation of the LANDIS model. Six types of forest vegetation communities were found including Quercus mongolica - Pinus densiflora community, Quercus mongolica community, Pinus densiflora community, Quercus variabilis-Quercus acutissima community, Larix leptolepis afforestation and Pinus koraiensis afforestation. As for changes in total AGB under three climate change scenarios, it was found that RCP 4.5 scenario featured the highest rate of increase in AGB whereas RCP 8.5 scenario yielded the lowest rate of increase. These results suggest that moderately elevated temperatures and CO 2 concen- trations helped the biomass flourish as photosynthesis and water use efficiency increased, but huge in- crease in temperature (above+4.0°C) has resulted in the increased respiration with increasing temperature. Consequently, Species productivity(Biomass) of trees decrease as the temperature is ele- vated drastically. It has been confirmed that the dominant species in all scenarios was Quercus mongolica. Like the trends shown in the changes of total AGB, it revealed the biggest increase in the AGB of Quercus mongolica under the RCP 4.5 scenario. AGB of Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis decreased in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios after 2050 but have much higher growth rates of the AGB starting from 2050 under the baseline scenario. Under all scenarios, the AGB of coniferous species was eventually perished in 2100. In particular they were extinguished in early stages of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This is because of natural selection of communities by succes- sions and the failure to adapt to climate change. The results of the study could be expected to be effec- tively utilized to predict changes of the forest ecosystems due to climate change and to be used as basic data for establishing strategies for adaptation climate changes and the management plans for for- est vegetation restoration in ecological restoration fields.

Scalable Scenario Specifications to Synthesize Component-centric Behaviour Models

Awad Ali,Dayang N. A. Jawawi,Mohd Adham Isa 보안공학연구지원센터 2015 International Journal of Software Engineering and Vol.9 No.9

Several scenario description languages and associated behaviour synthesis processes have been developed. The goal of these is to synthesize behaviour models from system requirement specifications, in order to enable the early identification of weak design spots or code generation. To date, however, most of the scenario languages are poorly scaled with regards to system sizes. This is because scalability requires more expressive constructs that can help when writing a scenario specification in a concise and compact manner, thereby resulting in a reduced number of scenarios. Furthermore, due to a lack of expressiveness in scenario languages, synthesis algorithms may need to rely on global behaviour models to determine inter-scenario dependencies. The global model is an additional factor that limits the approaches’ scalability. The reason is that the construction of a global model becomes harder as the system specification increases. To tackle these issues, within this article is proposed an expressive scenario description language that provides a concise and compact approach to scenario description, and defines inter-scenario dependencies semantically. A new algorithm that can address the additional constructs of the language was defined, in order to synthesize component-centric behaviour models. The applicability of this work has been demonstrated through both an illustrative example and a real-world case study. The evaluation indicates that the proposed scenario description language is more scalable than existing languages.

Seismic Damage Scenarios for Existing Masonry Buildings for Educational Use in the Mostaganem City

Bendehiba Sabeur,Sidi Mohammed El-Amine Bourdim,Hugo Rodrigues 대한토목학회 2023 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.27 No.5

Mostaganem, in Algeria, has experienced several seismic activities in recent years. It was classified in a zone of high to medium seismic activity according to the actual Algerian earthquake regulation. This ensures the safety of new constructions, however, the code done not include a technical reference for the seismic analysis and protection of existing constructions, in Algeria. The aim of this research is to constitute seismic scenarios of the masonry buildings used for educational purpose; therefore, the realization of seismic scenarios consists in crossing the data resulting from the seismic hazard (intensities) with those resulting from the analysis of the vulnerability. The analyses of the urban system will make it possible to interpret the scenarios in terms of functional damage. Seismic vulnerability of existing buildings was assessed under the RISK-UE method, which was selected to be suitable and applied to Algerian buildings for its convenience and simplicity. As a sample, 29 educational establishments (among of 199 masonry buildings for different use: primary school, middle school, secondary school, universities.) located in the historic city center of Mostaganem were assessed to identify the seismic vulnerability index, to allow to simulate seismic scenarios. The seismic vulnerability index is varied between 0.6 and 1.10 according to the diagnoses of each building carried out in the study area, The data from the vulnerability analysis are combined according to the RISK-UE approach (beta law) with the latter estimate by seismic hazard (seismic intensity), This correlation led to the birth of eight seismic scenarios expressing the results in terms of functional damage. As a result, moderate to heavy damage is expected for vulnerable constructions, significant economic losses are also expected for IEMS-98 > 8 intensities. These seismic scenarios were considered and incorporated through a geographic information system (GIS) Guide decision makers estimated the severity and magnitude of the seismic risk for the remaining educational buildings in Mostaganem; or in other cities of the country to implement preventive measures and naturally reduce the risk of disaster by reducing vulnerability. Recommendations can be proposed to the Algerian authorities to simulate and facilitate efforts to take concrete preventive measures to strengthen existing educational buildings in order to reduce the negative effects of future earthquakes.

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 군집분석을 이용한 지역 특성 분석

오윤경,최진용,유승환,이상현,Oh, Yun-Gyeong,Choi, Jin-Yong,Yoo, Seung-Hwan,Lee, Sang-Hyun 한국농공학회 2011 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.53 No.6

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

자율주행자동차 평가를 위한 다중 시나리오 변환과 시뮬레이션 기반 평가 방법

강동효,김인영,조성우,윤일수 한국ITS학회 2023 한국ITS학회논문지 Vol.22 No.6

The importance of evaluating the safety of Automated Vehicles (AV) is increasing with the advances in autonomous driving technology. Accordingly, an evaluation scenario that defines in advance the situations AV may face while driving is being used to conduct efficient stability evaluation. On the other hand, the single scenarios currently used in conventional evaluations address limited situations within short segments. As a result, there are limitations in evaluating continuous situations that occur on real roads. Therefore, this study developed a set of multiple scenarios that allow for continuous evaluation across entire sections of roads with diverse geometric structures to assess the safety of AV. In particular, the conditions for connecting individual scenarios were defined, and a methodology was proposed for developing concrete multiple scenarios based on the scenario evaluation procedure of the PEGASUS project. Furthermore, a simulation was performed to validate the practicality of these multiple scenarios.

농업분야 활용을 위한 한반도 1km 격자형 SSP 기후변화 시나리오

허지나,조재필,조세라,심교문,김용석,강민구,오찬성,서승범,김응섭 한국농림기상학회 2024 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.26 No.1

국제사회는 IPCC를 중심으로 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 기후변화 시나리오를 새로 운 온실가스 변화 경로로 채택하고, 신기후변화 시나리오 기반으로 다양한 규모와 형태로 기후변화를 전망하고 분석하고 있다. 국립농업과학원은 이러한 국제적 동향을 반영하고 농업부문 기후변화 적응대책 지원을 위한 노력의 일환으로 신규 온실가스 경로에 기반한 한반도 상세(1km) 기후변화 시나리오를 산출하였다. 본 논문은 2022년 “국가 기후변화 표준 시나리오” 로 인증받은 국립농업과학원의 SSP 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 소개하고, 기후변화 전망 결과를 보여주고자 한다. 한반도의 미래 기후 변화에 대한 전망 정보를 생산하기 위해 CMIP6에 참여한 18개의 GCM 모형에서 생산된 전지구 규모의 기후 자료를 과거기간(1985-2014)과 미래기간(2015-2100)에 대해 수집하고, 1km 격자형 한반도 전자기후도와 SQM 방법을 이용하여 한반도 영역에 대해 통계적 상세화를 수행하였다. 21세기 후반기(2071∼2100년), 한반도의 연평균 최고, 최저기온은 온실가스 배출 정도에 따라 각각 2.6∼6.1 ℃, 2.5∼6.3 ℃ 상승하고, 연강수량은 21.5∼38.7 % 상승하는 것으로 전망되었다. 저탄소 시나리오(SSP1-2.6)의 경우 기온과 강수량 상승이 적게 나타나, 탄소 배출을 감축하는 경우에 상승 폭을 억제할 수 있을 것으로 전망되었다. 21세기 후반기의 우리나라 평균 풍속과 일사량은 상대적으로 현재 대비 미래에 큰 변화가 없을 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이 자료는 기후변화에 따를 미래의 불확실성을 이해하고 기후변화 적응을 위한 합리적인 의사결정에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a “National Climate Change Standard Scenario” in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21 st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6∼6.1℃/2.5∼6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5∼38.7% depending on scenarios. The increase s in temperature and pre cipitation under the low -carbon s cenario w ere smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.