리츠 이익 공시에 따른 주가반응에 대한 이익예측오차, 내재변동성, 고유변동성, 투자심리의 영향

김세진(Se Jin Kim),정정현(Chung-Hyun Chung) 한국산업경제학회 2015 산업경제연구 Vol.28 No.4

본 연구는 리츠의 이익공시정보가 주식수익률에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이익 공시전후의 기간 동안에 리츠 수익률에 영향을 주는 변수로 이익예측오차, 내재변동성, 고유변동성, 투자심리 등에 대하여 검토하였다. 분석대상기간은 2010년 1월부터 2013년 12월까지이며, 이 기간 동안에 한국거래소(KRX) 유가증권시장에 상장되어 있는 모든 리츠를 대상으로 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 분기별 리츠의 이익 공시에 따른 누적초과수익률에 이익예측오차, 내재변동성, 고유변동성, 투자심리, 그리고 이러한 변수들 간의 상호작용이 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 검토하였다. 본 연구의 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 리츠의 이익 공시에 따른 주가반응을 분석한 결과, 이익공시일 전후에 누적초과수익률이 약간 상승하는 패턴을 보였다. 특히, 이익공시 이전의 D-27일에서 D-20일까지의 기간 동안에 상당한 수준의 양(+)의 누적초과수익률이 존재하였다. 또한 이익 공시에 따른 주가반응은 이익예측오차에 의해 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났는데. 이익예측오차가 양(+)인 표본에는 이익 공시 전후에 양(+)의 주가표류 현상이 존재하며, 이익예측오차가 음(-)인 표본에는 음(-)의 주가표류현상이 존재하였다. 둘째, 리츠의 이익 공시에 따른 누적초과수익률은 이익예측오차에 의하여 영향을 받으며, 내재변동성, 고유변동성, 투자심리 등에 의해서도 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이익예측오차는 내재변동성, 고유변동성, 투자심리 등의 변수와 상호작용하여 리츠의 이익 공시에 따른 누적초과수익률에 영향을 미치지만, 영향의 방향에 대해서는 일관성 있는 결과를 발견하기 어려웠다. 그리고 투자심리는 내재변동성, 고유변동성 등의 영향을 통제한 경우에만 리츠의 이익 공시에 따른 누적초과수익률에 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of study is to analyze effects of earning prediction error, information uncertainty, and investor sentiment on REITs returns. Using event study methodology, abnormal returns of REITs earning announcement are measured with market model, and then cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is regressed on the variables known to have influence on stock return. The cumulative abnormal returns around disclosure of the REITs" earning information are investigated. After then to determine the effect on REITs" cumulative abnormal return, CARs measured on various horizons are regressed on earning prediction error, uncertainty of market information, corporate information uncertainty, and investor sentiment. Period of analysis is from January 2010 to December 2013. All the REITs listed on Korea Exchange (KRX) are investigated. The data of earning announce information were obtained from corporate information disclosure site DART of Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). Profit prediction errors are calculated based on the simple prediction model for earnings forecasts. KOSPI 200 implied volatility index of KRX are used as proxy of market information uncertainty. The idiosyncratic volatility measured on 3-factor model are used as proxy of corporate information uncertainty. Investor sentiment is calculated using the monthly consumer sentiment index announced by Economic Statistics System (ECOS) of the Bank of Korea. Average abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of entire sample are investigated, though stock returns exhibit a slight increase around disclosure, it"s hard to state that there are stock return drift phenomena around earning disclosure of REITs in Korea. However, significant return reaction is observed during the period between D-20 and D-27 prior to earning information disclose. The stock market reaction to REITs earning information release occurs mainly by investors" prediction of earning. The impact on cumulative abnormal returns are investigated when profit prediction error, market information uncertainty, company information uncertainty, and investor sentiment are combined and applied as interacting variables. The prediction error appeared to affect the positive effect to the cumulative abnormal returns. And also, market information uncertainty, company information uncertainty, and investor sentiment are found to be effecting cumulative abnormal returns. Influence was different for each independent variable, market information uncertainty and corporate information uncertainty showed positive effect consistently, investor sentiment differed based on types of interaction. Market information uncertainty showed significant positive effect to REITs disclosure, when interacting with profit prediction error. Corporate information uncertainty was found to affect the largest effect on positive cumulative abnormal returns of REITs among the variables examined in this study. Even when it adding profit prediction error, upon interaction, market information uncertainty and investor sentiment by strong positive influence. Investor sentiment interacting with profit prediction error has negative influence to cumulative abnormal returns. And when market information uncertainty and corporate information uncertainty are added, the influence of interaction is amplified and may have greater impact on cumulative abnormal returns.

상이한 이익조정 수단이 재무분석가 예측의 불확실성과 재무분석가 수에 미치는 영향

김지홍 ( Jee Hong Kim ),유정민 ( Jung Min Yoo ),고재민 ( Jai Min Goh ) 한국회계학회 2014 회계학연구 Vol.39 No.4

경영자는 시장의 기대에 부응하기 위하여 잠재적으로 이익을 조정할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 이들의 공시 정보는 경영자의 기회주의적인 이익조정 의도를 포함할 수 있으며, 이로인해 발생액 및 실제 이익조정은 재무분석가가 제공하는 정보의 불확실성을 높이게 된다. 또한 이익조정으로 인한 이러한 정보의 불확실성은 재무분석가가 분석 정보를 제공하는 유인에도 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 특히, 규제 대상이 되는 발생액 이익조정에 비해 실제 이익조정은 경영자의 기회주의적 의도를 파악하기 더 어렵다는 특성이 있다. 이에 따라 경영자는 의도적으로 실제 이익조정을 선호하거나, 발생액 이익조정을 대체하기 위한 방법으로 이를 활용하는 경향이 있다. 본 연구에서는 실제 이익조정과 발생액 이익조정이 재무분석가 예측 정보의 불확실성과 정보 제공 유인에 미치는 영향을 검증하고, 특히 두 상이한 이익조정 방법의 차별적 영향력을 밝히고자 한다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 발생액 및 실제 이익조정이 재무분석가의 예측정확성에 미치는 영향을 각각 검증한 결과, 두 가지 이익조정 모두 재무분석가의 예측 정확도를 낮추고 있다. 그러나 두 가지 이익조정을 하나의 모형에서 동시에 고려하면, 발생액 이익조정의 영향은 사라지고 실제 이익조정만이 재무분석가 예측 정보의 정확도를 유의하게 낮춘다는 사실을 발견하였다. 두 가지 이익조정이 재무분석가의 예측 분산에 미치는 영향을 검증한 결과에서도 발생액 이익조정의 영향력은 유의하지 않았으며, 실제 이익조정만이 예측분산을 유의하게 높인다는 사실을 발견하였다. 둘째, 두 가지 이익조정이 재무분석가 수에 미치는 영향에서는 실제 이익조정 수준이 높을수록 정보를 제공하는 재무분석가의 수가 유의하게 감소하였고, 발생액 이익조정은 영향을 미치지 못하였다. 위의 두 가지 사실을 종합하면, 두 가지 이익조정 수단 중 실제 이익조정이재무분석가의 정보 불확실성에 더 큰 영향을 미치며 이는 재무분석가의 정보 제공을 회피하게 만든다는 사실을 알 수 있다. 셋째, 이익조정 의심 기업에 대한 추가 분석을 실시한 결과, 이들에 대해서도 실제 이익조정은 정보 불확실성을 증폭시킨다는 사실을 발견하였다. 그러나 이와 같은 추가적인 정보 불확실성에도 불구하고 이들에 대해 이익 예측치를 발표하는 재무분석가의 수는 오히려 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 결국 재무분석가의 정보 제공 유인은 해당 정보의 제공으로 인한 사적 효익과 비용에 의해 결정된다는 사실을 시사한다. This study aims to examine the impact of two different earnings management methods, accrual-based and real earnings management, on the uncertainty of the information which analysts provide, and their incentives to forecast. When the information uncertainty is high, financial analysts have not only incentive but also disincentive in providing information. The higher the information uncertainty grows, the larger the investors` demands are generated, which increases the value of the analysts` information. On the other hand, information uncertainty also raises the risks for analysts to undertake, which discourages the incentive for analysts to provide information. Under these circumstances, we test how the two different types of earnings management distinguishably affect the incentive or disincentive of analysts to provide information to the market considering information uncertainty. For this, we examine the influences of the two different earnings management on the quality of analysts` forecast and the number of analyst following. Differentiated from prior literature, this study compares the impact of real earnings management with accrual-based earnings management regarding information uncertainty that analysts face. Earnings management often includes managers` discretionary decisions and opportunistic behaviors so it is broadly used to measure the level of information uncertainty between managers and investors(Schipper 1989; Kim et al. 2010; Cho et al. 2009). For this earnings management, two different methods are widely recognized, which include accrual-based and real earnings management. Between these two, accrual-based earnings management is promoted by managers` discretionary choices of their accounting policies or by adjusting the timing to report their earnings(Schipper 1989). The results of accrual-based earnings management are usually reversed within short periods and it tends not to actually manipulate the firms` real operational activities in the long perspective. However, real earnings management means managers` abnormal decisions that manipulate firms` actual operational activities and this harms firms` long-term performances as it cannot be recovered once it happens(Roychowdhury 2006; Kim et al. 2008). In addition to these, accrual-based earnings management is subject to be audited by external auditors and supervisory institutions so it could be relatively easily found and is clearly restricted by laws and regulations. However, real earnings management is difficult to be distinguished from normal operational activities and also free from external regulations. Based on these ideas, we expect that the impacts of the two different types of earnings management on information uncertainty and the number of analyst following would be differential. Moreover, we analyze the changes in those results with highly earnings management suspicious firms. If firms are highly suspected for earnings management, the interests of the investors as well as information uncertainty on those firms would grow larger. In this case, although higher uncertainty gives the analysts higher information risks, their incentives to meet the investors` demands by providing forecast information would increase sharply. For these tests, we collect analysts` EPS forecast data between 2003 and 2007 from I/B/E/S database and the financial data from KIS-Value database provided by NICE Investors` Services Co. Total 533 samples are used in the analyses. We estimate the firms` discretionary accruals through Kothari et al.(2005)`s performance-matched discretionary accruals estimation model and the firms` level of real earnings management using Roychowdhury(2006)`s real activities manipulation estimation model. Then we regress the influences of the two different earnings management methods over the analysts` forecast accuracy, dispersion, and their coverage respectively. As results of the examination, we first find that accrual-based earnings management does not affect the analyst forecast accuracy and dispersion, but real earnings management significantly decreases the analyst forecast accuracy and increases the dispersion. Second, accrual-based earnings management does not have a significant influence on the number of analyst following, whereas real earnings management significantly decreases the number of analyst following. Third, in the analysis subject to the highly suspicious firms for earning management, real earnings management lowers the analyst forecast accuracy but promotes higher number of analyst following among them. In conclusion, this study implies that the impacts of the two different earnings management on the quality of analysts` forecast and the number of analyst following are differential because the two different earnings management methods generate different level of information uncertainty. As information uncertainty grows larger, it prevents analysts from providing information in general. However, the grown demands for information as to the highly suspicious firms for earnings management urge analysts to forecast information. On the whole, the results provide evidences that real earnings management promotes higher information uncertainty than accrual-based earnings management because it lowers the analysts` forecast accuracy and generates disincentive for them to provide information. However, if the value of information increases with grown attention, like those for suspicious firms, the analysts start to provide more information although taking the grown information risks. Together, our results support the idea that analyst coverage actually depends on their private benefits and costs to provide information(Barth et al. 2001).

애니메이션 서사정보의 요소를 통한 불확실성과 흥미 분석

이상훈,김지홍 한국일러스아트학회 2015 조형미디어학 Vol.18 No.4

The narrative of animation can work a role for information. The model of communication by Jakobson can apply to animation as a sender is an animation creator, a message is an animation, and a receiver is a viewer in terms of transmitting information. Because the importance of researches on animation narrative, it is still needed to study on elements of narrative for analysing structure. And also it is required studies on the uncertainty of narrative information for animation interest. Thus, the objective research on the interest of animation by the uncertainty of narrative information and information quantity and entropy is being raised. The purpose of this study is to elicit the elements of narrative information and than apply to the uncertainty on animation sequences for finding interest of animation. First, it is established the 6N-i (narrative information) as Character-information, Event-information, Time-information, Space-information, Method-information, and Motive-information, and than analyse sequences of animation in terms of uncertainty. The result of this study is that 6N-i can work to animation sequences and depending on the high level of uncertainty it is high level of interest, but the low level of uncertainty is the low level of interest. Specially E-i can operate amount of information that can reveal at the final part as a climax, so animation keeps audience interest in animation by doing control uncertainty of narrative. This can utilize not only animation but also movie and many other media that have narrative. It is appeared that the role of uncertainty in animation narrative is to promote interest and also last for viewer. 애니메이션 서사는 정보로서 역할을 수행한다. 정보의 전달은 야콥슨의 커뮤니케이션 모델에서와 같이 애니메이션 창작자인 발신자와, 메시지인 애니메이션과 수신자인 관객이 존재한다. 애니메이션의 서사에 대한 중요성이 대두되고 있으나 서사를 세분화된 요소로 파악하여 구조를 분석하는 연구가 미흡하다. 또한 서사정보의 불확실성을 통한 흥미와 관련된 연구도 부재한 실정이다. 그러므로 서사정보의 불확실성에 대한 정보량과 엔트로피와 흥미에 관한 실증적인 연구의 필요성이 제기된다. 본 연구는 애니메이션 서사정보의 요소를 파악하고 각 요소의 불확실성을 시퀀스에서 구분하고 흥미와의 관계 규명을 목적으로 한다. 먼저 서사정보를 6N-i (narrative information) 즉 인물정보C-i, 사건정보E-i, 시간정보T-i, 공간정보S-i, 방법정보Me-i, 동기정보Mo-i로서 6개의 요소를 추출하고, 각 요소를 실증적인 질적 연구로서 애니메이션의 사례분석을 통해 시퀀스에 대해 불확실성의 변화를 파악한다. 연구결과 애니메이션의 시퀀스에서 6N-i의 요소가 작용하며 불확실성이 높으면 흥미가 높고 불확실성이 낮으면 흥미가 낮아지는데, 특히 사건정보에서 불확실성을 조절하여 정보량을 절정부분에 많이 노출하면 불확실성을 낮아지므로 애니메이션 전반에서 흥미를 이끌어 나가도록 하는 방법을 활용하고 있다는 것을 실증하였다. 본 연구 결과는, 애니메이션뿐만 아니라 영화를 비롯하여 서사를 지닌 서사물 전반에 대해 적용이 가능하며 서사정보를 통한 불확실성은 흥미유발과 지속의 역할을 한다는 시사점이 있다.

Information uncertainty, market sentiment, and analyst reports

Karam Kim,Doojin Ryu,Heejin Yang 한국재무학회 2020 한국재무학회 학술대회 Vol.2020 No.11

This study examines the effects of investor sentiment and information uncertainty on the stock market response to analyst recommendation changes within a unified framework. Recent progress in the field of behavioral finance suggests that sentiment affects the classical relationship between analyst recommendations and stock return dynamics. Our novel findings suggest that the degree of information uncertainty should be considered when investigating the effect of sentiment. Although investor sentiment significantly explains the observed stock market reactions to analyst recommendation changes under high information uncertainty, it loses its explanatory power under low information uncertainty. Furthermore, analyst recommendations convey significant trading indications if information uncertainty is high, but they are less informative if information uncertainty is low.

User Perceptions of Uncertainty in the Selection of Information Retrieval System:Implications for System and Service Improvement

김양우 한국콘텐츠학회 2009 International Journal of Contents Vol.5 No.3

While numerous studies have suggested the significance of uncertainty during the process of information-seeking, less research has investigated user uncertainty in the actual search process using a real system. This study investigated user perceptions of uncertainty in the process of the selection of information retrieval system in the real information-seeking process. Considering the role of commercial Web search engines as supplementary tools for traditional bibliographic databases in academic research environments, this study analyzed the selection behavior of scholarly researchers, who use such search tools for their academic study. The researchers were limited to the discipline of science in order to understand user perceptions in this field. The findings revealed various dimensions, types, and incidents of uncertainty. Variations appeared in different incidents of uncertainty relating to the unique characteristics of the subjects’ information-seeking context. The identification of three principal origins of uncertainty based on the different types of uncertainty generated implications to improve information systems and services.

주가표류현상에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구

이경태 ( Kyung Tae Lee ),이연진 ( Yeon Jin Lee ) 한국회계학회 2008 회계학연구 Vol.33 No.3

주가표류현상은 준강형 시장효율성 가설과 배치되는 자본시장의 이상현상으로 이익공시 후 기간에서도 공시된 이익정보가 주가움직임과 체계적인 관련성을 갖는 것을 말한다. 본 연구는 비기대이익과 이익 공시 후 기간의 누적초과수익률 간 관계를 통해 국외 자본시장에서 검증되어 온 주가표류현상이 국내 자본시장에서도 발견되는지를 실증적으로 분석한다. 더 나아가 개별 기업의 정보불확실성과 이익의 질이 주가표류현상 수준에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 2003∼2005년 제조업에 속한 상장기업들을 대상으로 실증분석한 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 비기대이익이 커질수록 이익정보 공시 후 기간의 누적초과수익률이 증가한다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 둘째, 정보불확실성 대용치로 초과수익률변동성, 평균주식거래회전율, 기업상장연수, 재무분석가수를 사용하여 분석한 결과, 개별 기업의 정보불확실성과 이익정보에 대한 주가표류현상은 양의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 단 기업상장연수를 대용치로 사용한 결과에서는 그 값이 유의하지 않았다. 마지막으로 이익의 질을 이익지속성, 초과이익지속성, 재량적 발생액의 정도, 유동발생의 예측오차로 측정하여 분석한 결과에서는 재량적 발생액의 정도를 제외한 분석에서 이익의 질과 주가표류현상 수준 간에 유의한 음의 관계를 발견할 수 있었다. Post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) is a phenomenon which the price continues to drift up if the earnings surprise is positive and down if negative. Ball and Brown (1968) first reported that stock returns continue to drift in the direction of earnings surprises for several months after the earningsannouncements. Since then, a number of studies attempted to find the underlying reason for this phenomenon suggesting explanations such as mis-measurement of risk and investor irrationality. Nonetheless, these conjectures were not sufficient enough to provide an explanation for the existence of the PEAD. Thus, this phenomenon remains as one of the market anomaly that is in a conflict with semi- strong efficient market hypothesis. Although this phenomenon is an established anomaly in the US, there have been few researches attempting to explore the drift for other stock markets. This study aims to test for the presence of PEAD based on Korea Stock Exchange. Specifically, this study examines the relationship between earnings surprise and stock`s cumulative abnormal returns for several days following an quarterly earnings announcement. Considering there are only a few studies examining whether firm-specific characteristics affect the drift level, this paper also tests the relationship between them. We first examine if the drift is more evident when the firm`s information uncertainty is high. We measure the information uncertainty using several proxies including excess stock returns, average daily turnover, firm age and analyst coverage. If the firm`s information uncertainty is high, it is likely that investors put less weight on the company`s earnings release, and the price reaction to earnings announcements should be less than the rational level. Consequently, there should be a subsequent price adjustment following an earnings announcement as the initial price reaction does not fully reflect the information contained in the earnings announcement. Secondly, we test whether the firm with poor earnings quality shows higher drift level using four proxies for earnings quality. They are accounting earnings persistence, abnormal earnings persistence, absolute magnitude of discretionary accruals, and magnitude of estimation error in accruals. In this case, the reaction of investors might differ depending on the earnings quality. We predict that the investors underreact less to the firms with better earnings quality. For the empirical analyses, this paper uses 1,095 Korean listed firms (nonbanking firms with December fiscal years) for the years from 2003 to 2005, and the financial data were figured out from Kis-Value and Fn-DataGuide Databases. The empirical findings are as follows. First, the cumulative abnormal returns over the 60 trading days subsequent to quarterly earnings announcements are significantly increasing in earnings surprise. As we partitioned the sample firms into two groups according to the standardized unexpected earnings, cumulative abnormal returns for stocks announcing positive standardized unexpected earnings showed strong drift compared to the stocks of negative standardized unexpected earnings. Second, consistent with our predictions, the results suggest that the level of PEAD and firm-specific information uncertainty has positive relation when volatility of excess stock returns, average daily turnover, and analyst coverage are used as measures of information uncertainty. However, significant association is not found when the firm age is used as the proxy. As the empirical results are mainly consistent with our prediction, we conclude that firms with higher information uncertainty experience higher drift to their earnings surprises. Lastly, this paper conjectures that PEAD is negatively related with earnings quality. The test results appear to be supported by statistical significance when accounting earnings persistence, abnormal earnings persistence, and magnitude of estimation error in accruals are used as measures of earnings quality. However, the result was not significant when absolute magnitude of discretionary accruals are used as the proxy. The main contribution of this paper is that we demonstrate the existence of PEAD phenomenon in Korea market consistent with the US market. Empirical results represent that stock return do not fully impound the surprise in announced quarterly earnings immediately upon the earnings disclosure; stock returns continue to drift in the same direction as the earnings surprise announcement. Our results indirectly indicate that the inefficiency of the market exists in Korea market. Our paper also contributes to research on understanding the firm-specific characteristics affecting the drift level. We suggested information uncertainty and earnings quality as major two factors explaining the differences in drift level among the firms, and the results supported the prediction that firms with higher information uncertainty or poor earnings quality will show higher drift level. In this study, we empirically evaluated the prediction by including the interaction variable. In this way, we not only examine the mean effect but focus on the relation between information uncertainty (or earnings quality) and the magnitude of the drift level.

User Perceptions of Uncertainty in the Selection of Information Retrieval System: Implications for System and Service Improvement

Kim, Yang-Woo The Korea Contents Association 2009 International Journal of Contents Vol.5 No.3

While numerous studies have suggested the significance of uncertainty during the process of information-seeking, less research has investigated user uncertainty in the actual search process using a real system. This study investigated user perceptions of uncertainty in the process of the selection of information retrieval system in the real information-seeking process. Considering the role of commercial Web search engines as supplementary tools for traditional bibliographic databases in academic research environments, this study analyzed the selection behavior of scholarly researchers, who use such search tools for their academic study. The researchers were limited to the discipline of science in order to understand user perceptions in this field. The findings revealed various dimensions, types, and incidents of uncertainty. Variations appeared in different incidents of uncertainty relating to the unique characteristics of the subjects' information-seeking context. The identification of three principal origins of uncertainty based on the different types of uncertainty generated implications to improve information systems and services.

전자상거래에서 정보 프라이버시 염려를 유발하는 원인과 보호반응에 관한 연구: 주인-대리인 이론을 중심으로

김종기 ( Jong Ki Kim ),김진성 ( Jin Sung Kim ) 한국정보시스템학회 2014 情報시스템硏究 Vol.23 No.4

Under the premise that information privacy concerns can atrophy e-commerce by causing particular behaviors of Internet users, this study focused on exploring the causes of information privacy concerns, the related information privacy protective responses of Internet users, and measures for alleviating the information privacy concerns. This study is based on the ``principal-agent theory,`` and established the following as factors that cause information privacy concerns of Internet users: perceived information non-transparency; perceived action uncertainty. Also, the information privacy concerns caused by the factors were established as the cause of information privacy protective responses of Internet users. Also, the concept of ``signaling`` and ``incentive,`` which were presented to solve the adverse selection and moral hazard issue in the host-agent theory, was introduced to establish the following as factors that alleviate information privacy concerns: trust; informativeness. Those factors were included in the research model to conduct an empirical analysis. The analysis has revealed that both the perceived information non-transparency (p<0.01) and perceived action uncertainty (p<0.01) as to websites had a significant impact on information privacy concerns. Also, information privacy concerns of Internet users (p<0.01) had a significant impact on their information privacy protective responses who strive to protect their personal information. In addition, when trust and informativeness, which were established as factors that can alleviate information privacy concerns, were empirically analyzed, trust and informativeness had the effect of alleviating information privacy concerns. Based on the findings, the following was confirmed: Boosting the trust of Internet users in websites and offering useful information related to personal data can play a key role in alleviating the information privacy concerns of Internet users.

조기 경제성평가에 따른 불확실성 존재 하에서 의사결정을 위한 VOI 이해 및 활용

임은아(Eun-A Lim),강대원(Daewon Kang),신경선(Gyeong-Seon Shin),최상은(Sang-Eun Choi) 대한약학회 2020 약학회지 Vol.64 No.1

The value of information (VOI) is the value of additional information, as a quantitative estimate which presents the result as a monetary value. The VOI helps to make decisions under uncertainty. The importance of VOI is growing due to the increase of early market approval of new technologies. The theoretical framework of VOI is based on the Bayesian decision theory. VOI analysis estimates the expected costs associated with making a wrong decision due to uncertainty. This implies that a new information is more valuable when a VOI is large. There are parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate VOIs and non-parametric methods are commonly used. To estimate VOI, a non-parametric method calculates the difference of potential values between decision with perfect information and decision under uncertainty. The decision to conduct a new research is made when the population VOI estimate is larger than the expected cost of conducting the additional research. There are three key measurements in VOI. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is perfect information for the whole parameters, the expected value of perfect parameter information (EVPPI) is perfect information for a parameter or a set of parameters, and the expected value of sample information (EVSI) provides information of new study design. VOI analysis may require a lot of computational time but efficient software programs have been introduced.

여행정보 엔트로피(Entropy) 속성에 관한 연구 - 여행상품 온라인 리뷰 중심 -

강도용,이태숙,김철원 한국관광학회 2020 관광학연구 Vol.44 No.1

Online reviews to obtain travel information by social network services have become more critical. Tourists tend to consider online reviews to be more believable than the information from tour operators and travel agencies. Online consumer reviews, in particular, are playing an increasingly significant role in travelers' purchase behavior. However, from the literature review, a wide range of information with different levels of certainty is available, and the different tourism information may result in different impacts on tourist behavior. This study employed “entropy” in the information theory that indicates the degree of uncertainty related to the information in the message. The information entropy theory assumes that high information entropy implies more uncertainty to customers. This study investigated and verified the entropy attribute of travel information through the integrated research methodology. As a result of the exploratory factor analysis for the validity test of the qualitative research, the study identified four factors as the entropy of travel information: asymmetry, discordance, distrust, and uncertainty. These findings hold significant implications for both travel agencies and marketers. 소셜네트워크 서비스로 여행 정보를 얻기 위한 온라인 리뷰의 효용성이 확대되고 있다. 관광객들은 여행사의 정보보다 온라인 리뷰를 더 신뢰하는 경향이 있다. 그러나 온라인 리뷰에 표출된 정보가 왜곡되거나 여행상품의 비윤리성 등으로 신뢰감을 주지 못하면 소비자들의 선택 행동의 불확실성이 유발한다. 더욱이 정치 및 사회적 돌출 변수에 의하여 불확실성이 높아지면 여행상품 구매에 대한 혼돈을 초래하기도 한다. 본 연구는 정보 이론에서 적용하고 있는 혼돈과 무질서를 뜻하는 엔트로피의 개념을 기반으로 소비자들이 여행상품을 구매할 때 접하게 되는 여행 정보의 불확실성을 나타내는 정보 엔트로피 속성에 관하여 연구하고자 한다. 본 연구는 정성적 연구와 정량적 연구를 통합하여 여행 정보 엔트로피 속성을 도출하고 이를 실증 검증하였다. 연구결과를 보면, 여행 정보의 엔트로피 속성은 비대칭성, 불일치성, 불신성 및 불확실성 등의 4개 요인으로 도출되었다. 본 연구는 여행사와 마케팅 담당자 모두에게 유용한 의미를 부여할 것으로 기대한다.