장기요양서비스의 지역 형평성 분석

김태일,최혜진 한국정책분석평가학회 2021 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.31 No.4

본 연구의 목적은 우리나라 장기요양 서비스 지역 형평성을 평가하는 데 있다. 기존 연구는 도시에 편중된 공급기관으로 인해 장기요양 서비스 전달에서 공급자 유인수요가 발생하고 이는 도시의 과잉수요 및 도시와 농어촌의 서비스 이용 격차를 야기한다고 주장한다. 본 연구에서는 서울, 수도권, 광역시, 기타 시 지역, 농어촌의 다섯 지역을 구분하고 다섯 지역의 장기요양 서비스 이용 격차에 공급자 유인수요가 작동하는지를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 우리나라 장기요양보험의 지역 간 수급률 격차는 심각한 수준이라고 하기는 어려우며, 현재의 인정률 격차가 공급자 유인 요인에 의해 발생하는 시장실패라는 해석은 타당성이 약한 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 지역유형 내 분석에서 제공인력에 따라 서비스 이용이 가장 뚜렷하게 달라지는 지역은 농어촌 지역이었다. 즉, 기존의 공급자 유인수요 가설은 지역 간 격차는 설명하지 못하지만 농어촌과 같이 공급이 부족한 지역에서의 서비스 이용에는 뚜렷한 영향을 미치는 것으로 제시되었다. 이는 공급자 유인수요라기 보다는 공급 부족에 의한 결과로 해석할 수 있으며, 이와 같은 분석결과를 바탕으로 이론적, 정책적 함의를 제시하였다. The article aims to evaluate the local equity of the long term care provision in Korea. Previous studies have argued that supplier-induced demand(SID), suppliers acting as agents for the service users, is prominent in the Korean long term care system. And they argue that the SID in the long term care system manipulates the benefit take-up rate in an urban area. To examine whether the SID hypothesis satisfactorily explains the Korean long term care system, we use several related indicators and detailed zone units. From the result of the analysis, we find that the SID hypothesis does not explain the current local variation. But, we also find that there is a strong positive association between care worker density and the benefit take-up rate in a rural area. It means that the density of service providers impacts the take-up rate of the benefit where there is not sufficient service provision, rather than in an urban area. Based on the findings, we suggest the policy implication.

Long-term prediction of safety parameters with uncertainty estimation in emergency situations at nuclear power plants

김효진,김종현 한국원자력학회 2023 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.55 No.5

The correct situation awareness (SA) of operators is important for managing nuclear power plants (NPPs), particularly in accident-related situations. Among the three levels of SA suggested by Ensley, Level 3 SA (i.e., projection of the future status of the situation) is challenging because of the complexity of NPPs as well as the uncertainty of accidents. Hence, several prediction methods using artificial intelligence techniques have been proposed to assist operators in accident prediction. However, these methods only predict short-term plant status (e.g., the status after a few minutes) and do not provide information regarding the uncertainty associated with the prediction. This paper proposes an algorithm that can predict the multivariate and long-term behavior of plant parameters for 2 h with 120 steps and provide the uncertainty of the prediction. The algorithm applies bidirectional long short-term memory and an attention mechanism, which enable the algorithm to predict the precise long-term trends of the parameters with high prediction accuracy. A conditional variational autoencoder was used to provide uncertainty information about the network prediction. The algorithm was trained, optimized, and validated using a compact nuclear simulator for a Westinghouse 900 MWe NPP.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE : Long-Term Wind Resource Mapping of Korean West-South Offshore for the 2.5 GW Offshore Wind Power Project

( Hyun Goo Kim ),( Moon Seok Jang ),( Suk Hwan Ko ) 한국환경과학회 2013 한국환경과학회지 Vol.22 No.10

A long-term wind resource map was made to provide the key design data for the 2.5 GW Korean West-South Offshore Wind Project, and its reliability was validated. A one-way dynamic downscaling of the MERRA reanalysis meteorological data of the Yeongwang-Gochang offshore was carried out using WindSim, a Computational Fluid Dynamics based wind resource mapping software, to establish a 33-year time series wind resource map of 100 m x 100 m spatial resolution and 1-hour interval temporal resolution from 1979 to 2012. The simulated wind resource map was validated by comparison with wind measurement data from the HeMOSU offshore meteorological tower, the Wangdeungdo Island meteorological tower, and the Gochang transmission tower on the nearby coastline, and the uncertainty due to long-term variability was analyzed. The long-term variability of the wind power was investigated in inter-annual, monthly, and daily units while the short-term variability was examined as the pattern of the coefficient of variation in hourly units. The results showed that the inter-annual variability had a maximum wind index variance of 22.3% while the short-term variability, i.e., the annual standard deviation of the hourly average wind power, was 0.041±0.001, indicating steady variability.

MCP방법을 이용한 장기간 풍속 및 풍력에너지 변동 특성 분석

현승건(Hyun Seung-Gun),장문석(Jang Moon-Seok),고석환(Ko Suk-Hwan) 한국태양에너지학회 2013 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 Vol.33 No.5

Wind resource data of short-term period has to be corrected a long-term period by using MCP method that Is a statistical method to predict the long-term wind resource at target site data with a reference site data. Because the field measurement for wind assessment is limited to a short period by various constraints. In this study, 2 different MCP methods such as Linear regression and Matrix method were chosen to compare the predictive accuracy between the methods. Finally long-term wind speed, wind power density and capacity factor at the target site for 20 years were estimated for the variability of wind and wind energy. As a result, for 20 years annual average wind speed, Yellow sea off shore wind farm was estimated to have 4.29% for coefficient of variation, CV, and-9.57%〜9.53% for range of variation, RV. It was predicted that the annual wind speed at Yellow sea offshore wind farm varied within±10%.

PM10 장기노출 예측모형 개발을 위한 국가 대기오염측정자료의 탐색과 활용

이선주,김호,김선영 한국대기환경학회 2016 한국대기환경학회지 Vol.32 No.1

Many cohort studies have reported associations of individual-level long-term exposures to PM10 and health outcomes. Individual exposures were often estimated by using exposure prediction models relying on PM10 data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites. This study explored spatial and temporal characteristics of regulatory PM10 measurement data in South Korea and suggested PM10 concentration metrics as long-term exposures for assessing health effects in cohort studies. We obtained hourly PM10 data from the National Institute of Environmental Research for 2001~2012 in South Korea. We investigated spatial distribution of monitoring sites using the density and proximity in each of the 16 metropolitan cities and provinces. The temporal characteristics of PM10 measurement data were examined by annual/seasonal/diurnal patterns across urban background monitoring sites after excluding Asian dust days. For spatial characteristics of PM10 measurement data, we computed coefficient of variation (CV) and coefficient of divergence (COD). Based on temporal and spatial investigation, we suggested preferred long-term metrics for cohort studies. In 2010, 294 urban background monitoring sites were located in South Korea with a site over an area of 415.0 km2 and distant from another site by 31.0 km on average. Annual average PM10 concentrations decreased by 19.8% from 2001 to 2012, and seasonal PM10 patterns were consistent over study years with higher concentrations in spring and winter. Spatial variability was relatively small with 6~19% of CV and 21~46% of COD across 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in 2010. To maximize spatial coverage and reflect temporal and spatial distributions, our suggestion for PM10 metrics representing long-term exposures was the average for one or multiple years after 2009. This study provides the knowledge of all available PM10 data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea and the insight of the plausible longterm exposure metric for cohort studies.

남극해 유색 용존 유기물질의 장기 변동성 모니터링을 위한 세종 기지의 활용 가능성 평가

전미해,박미옥,강성호,전미사 해양환경안전학회 2019 海洋環境安全學會誌 Vol.25 No.7

As the positive feedback between the absorption of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and acceleration of ice melt can impact the aquatic biota and dynamic heat budget, long-term monitoring of the CDOM variation in the polar ocean is necessary. However, the monitoring of CDOM is not easy because of harsh weather and difficult access, especially in the Antarctic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to find a suitable long-term monitoring site for CDOM variation; we selected Maxwell Bay and Marian Cove at Sejong Base and horizontal and vertical distributions of CDOM were measured. After a 72 hr time-series measurement test of the CDOM variation at Sejong Dock and Sejong Cape in Maxwell Bay, Sejong Dock was selected, as it does not haveland discharge effects. The seasonal variation of CDOM was evident and the average CDOM concentration of Maxwell Bay was comparable with the adjacent sea. The CDOM at Sejong Dock from February to November 2010 was the highest in the fall and winter and the lowest during spring and summer. Thus, based on our one-year CDOM data, we suggest that Sejong Dock in Maxwell Bay is suitable for long-term monitoring of CDOM as an indicator of photochemical and biological environmental change and an important factor in determining the heating budget in the Antarctic Ocean. 유색 용존 유기물의 빛 흡수와 해빙의 가속화는 수생생태계와 열수지 역동성 간의 양적 피드백에 영향을 줄 수 있으므로 극지 해양에서 유색 용존 유기물의 장기 모니터링이 필요하게 되었다. 그러나 극지 환경에서의 관측은 용이하지 않은 접근성과 거친 기상으로 장기 모니터링이 쉽지 않다. 따라서 유색 용존 유기물의 장기 모니터링 장소로서 남극 세종 기지의 가능성을 확인하기 위해, 마리안 소만과 맥스웰 만에서 유색 용존 유기물의 분포와 외부로부터의 영향을 파악하기 위한 관측을 수행하였다. 맥스웰 만 내의 세종 부두와 세종 곶의 72시간 유색 용존 유기물의 변동성을 관측하고, 외부 영향이 없었던 세종 부두에서 2010년 2월에서 11월까지 10개월간 유색 용존 유기물의 연간 변화와 계절변동을 관측하였다. 세종 부두의 유색 용존 유기물 농도는 가을과 겨울 동안 가장 높고 봄과 여름에 감소하는 뚜렷한 계절 변동성을 보였고, 남극 인근 해역에서 측정된 유색 용존 유기물 농도 자료와 비교하였다. 따라서 우리는 남극해의 열수지에 대한 중요한 요인이자 광화학적 및 생물학적 환경변화에 관한 지시자인 유색 용존 유기물을 장기 모니터링을 위해 적합한 장소로 맥스웰 만의 세종 부두를 제안한다.

부산항 조석의 장기 월별 변동 특성

김종규(JONG-KYU KIM),강태순(TAE-SOON KANG) 한국해양공학회 2002 韓國海洋工學會誌 Vol.16 No.2

The long-term monthly variations of tide with tidal harmonic analysis in Pusan Harbour are investigated. The present spring tidal range decreased 1.4 cm and the variation of phase lag increased than 1974. The high and low water level of yearly mean sea level is shown during the February to March and August to September, respectively. It is important to note that the larger lunar elliptic N2 is large in comparison with lunisolar diurnal K1 and principal lunar diurnal O1. The ratios (Correction Factors) of monthly mean sea level and the main 4 tidal constituents are evaluated to correct the shortly (monthly) observed tide for the design of harbour facilities.

광양만 저서다모류군집의 장기 변동

김용현,신현출,류종성,이정호 한국수로학회 2023 한국수로학회지 Vol.12 No.2

본 연구는 광양만의 매립 및 준설로 인하여 연안지역 개발이 저서다모류 군집의 천이에 미치는 영향과 그에 따른 장기적인 변화에 파악하고자 하였다. 대형저서동물의 채집은 1996년 2월부터 2006년 10월까지 광양만 19개 정점에서 실시하였다. 저서다모류의 평균 출현종수는 57±8 종이며, 시기별로 평균 출현종수의 차이는 유의미하게 나타났다. 저서다모류의 평균 서식밀도는 663±327 개체/㎡ 이며, 시기별로 평균 출현종수와 유사한 변동을 보였다. 최우점종은 Tharyx sp.로 전체 저서다모류의 19%를 차지하였으며, Lumbrineris longifolia, Heteromastus filiformis, Sternaspis scutata, Prionospio sp. 순으로 나타났다. 우점종으로 분석한 BPI와 AMBI는 약간 오염되거나 중간 오염된 수준을 보였으며, 광양만은 심각한 수준의 오염상태로 판단되지 않는다. 군집분석과 다차원척도법 분석결과는 1990년대 후반, 2000년대 초반, 2000년대 후반, 2006년 가을의 네가지 시간 그룹으로 분류되었다. 그룹별로 우점종의 변화 보다는 서식밀도 증감이 나타났으며, 저서다모류 군집의 천이는 나타나지 않았다. This study mainly focuses on the succession of benthic polychaetous community followed by the long-term variation during the coastal station development including reclamation and dredging operations in Gwangyang Bay. Sampling of macrobenthos was carried out at 19 stations in Gwangyang Bay from February 1996 to October 2006. The mean species number of benthic polychaetous is 57±8 species, and there were significant difference of mean species number by time groups. The mean density of benthic polychaetous is around 663±327 ind./㎡, and the result by time group shows a similar complexion to the mean species number variation. The most predominant specie is Tharyx sp. occupying 19.0%, and Lumbrineris longifolia, Heteromastus filiformis, Sternaspis scutata, Prionospio sp. are following behind. The BPI and AMBI result of these dominant species shows the level of slightly polluted or meanly polluted, which will not be considered seriously. Cluster analysis and MDS classify four time groups: late 1990's, Early 2000's, Mid-2000's, and 2006 autumn. There is an inverse density increase or decrease in the position of dominant species by group, and no succession in the benthic polychaete community is visible.

동중국해 표층수온의 장기 변동성: 종설

이재학,김철호 한국해양과학기술원 2013 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.35 No.2

The long-term variability of sea surface temperature in the East China Sea was reviewed based mainly on published literatures. Though the quantitative results are not the same, it is generally shown that sea surface temperature is increasing especially in recent years with the rate of increase about 0.03oC/year. Other meaningful results presented in the literatures is that the difference of water properties between layers upper and lower than the thermocline in summer shows an increasing trend both in temperature and salinity, suggesting that the stratification has been intensified. As a mechanism by which to evaluate the wintertime warming trend in the region, the weakening of wind strength, which is related to the variation of sea level pressure and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific and northern Asian continent, is suggested in the most of related studies.

낙동강 하류지역에서 식물 플랑크톤 생체량 및 수질의 장기변동 특성

손희종(Hee Jong Son) 大韓環境工學會 2013 대한환경공학회지 Vol.35 No.4

낙동강 하류 물금지역의 장기적인 부영양화 경향을 평가하기 위해 1995년부터 2012년까지 수질인자들 및 식물 플랑크톤 생체량(클로로필-a 농도)들의 변화경향을 조사하였다. 18년간의 장기적인 연평균 수질인자들 농도 및 식물 플랑크톤 생체량 변화에서 연평균 수질인자들 농도 및 식물 플랑크톤 생체량은 점차 감소하는 추세였다. 연중 식물 플랑크톤의 농도변화에서는 매년 12월부터 3월까지 높은 식물 플랑크톤의 농도를 나타내었다. Aizaki의 부영양화 지수(Trophic State Index, TSI) 평가에서 낙동강 하류 물금지역의 경우 1995년부터 2012년까지 매년 그리고 연중 부영양화 상태인 것으로 나타났다. 각각의 수질인자들과 식물 플랑크톤 생체량과의 단순 상관관계 분석에서 BOD와 식물 플랑크톤 생체량과의 상관성(r2 = 0.82)이 가장 높게 나타났다. Long-term (from 1995 to 2012) data of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a, Chl-a) and water quality were analyzed to investigate trends of eutrophication in downstream of Nakdong River (Mulgum). Long-term annual average concentration of water quality parameters and phytoplankton biomass at Mulgum showed an decreasing trends for 18 years. Phytoplankton biomass was high from annually December to March. Trophic state was evaluated as the eutrophic state annually from 1995 to 2012 by TSI (trophic state index) by Aizaki. From the results of simple regression analysis, correlation coefficient between Chl-a concentration and BOD concentration was high (r² = 0.82).