동북아 지역질서의 재편 : 미·일·중 삼각관계와 한국의 안보외교 Trilateral Relationship among U.S., Japan and China and South Korea's Security Diplomacy

이기종 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.2

The existing power arrangement in Northeast Asia can be characterized as one of confrontation between a new United States-Japanese alliance and China in the context of a strategic triangular relationship among the three countries, involving mutual conflict and cooperation. It is expected that, in the 21st century, there will emerge a pattern of confrontation between the United States and China, on the world level, and one between Japan and China, on the regional level. If a conflict between the United States and Japan should grow or if the former's armed forces stationed in East Asia should be cut down, there would reemerge the strategic triangular arrangement among the three major powers. In this case, each of the three countries would seek to gain Russia, which became relatively weekened, over to its side. Such an effort is already being made. Recently, China declares that it will proceed with a strategic partnership with Russia against the reinforcement of the U.S.-Japanese alliance. Japan also tries to establish a new cooperative relationship with Russia in spite of a dispute over its four northern islands. In addition, the United States seeks to strengthen its relationship with Russia. This paper examines triangular relationships among the United States, Japan, and China, and then North-South Korean relationships, as will be developed as the result of a reshuffle of power in East Asia. In the Cold War era, persistent confrontation existed between the three southern powers, including the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, and the three northern powers, such as the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea. However, such a confrontation pattern has been attenuated by the following events: the end of the Cold War, the normalization of South Korean diplomatic relations with Russia and China in the early 1990s, and a U.S.- North Korean agreement on the nuclear issue in Geneva in October 1994. On the other hand, there has been some continuity in military relations. The U.S.-South Korean and Chinese-North Korean alliances have been maintained. After Russia abrogated its military alliance relationship with North Korea, it has pursued a balanced policy toward two Koreas. This paper provides four scenarios of power arrangements which will develop in Northeast Asia in the 21st century. First is the case in which South Korea will maintain its alliance with the United States and its friendly relationships with China, Japan, and Russia. and in which it will continue its current confrontation with North Korea. This scenario is the best one from the South Korean perspective. In this case, Pyungyang will be isolated, and Seoul will seek to induce it to open and reform its system by means of pressure from the four neighboring major powers. As the second best one, another scenario is the case in which confrontation between the U.S.-South Korean alliance and North Korea will reemerge, and in which China, Japan, and Russia will take a neutral position. In this scenario, if South Korea, through its diplomatic efforts, reinforces its economic cooperation with China, and builds political and military confidence with the Baijing regime, it is highly likely .that the alliance relationship between North Korea and China will be abrogated as in the North Korean-Russian case. The third scenario is the worst one in which confrontation will develop between South Korea and the North Korean-Chinese alliance, but in which the United States, Russia, and Japan will adopt a neutralist or pro-North Korea policy. It is difficult to expect that this case will work. Nevertheless, it might happen if the U.S. forces in Korea should be withdrawn and if China should become a hegemonic power, while maintaining its alliance with North Korea. The last scenario is the case of direct confrontation between South and North Koreas. This case will take place when the four major powers make cross-recognition of two Koreas after North Korea's diplomatic normalization with the United States and Japan. As a theory of the North Korean regime's breakup has been recently raised, analysts assume that there would be a five-major power arrangement in which a unified Korea would function as a balancer in maintaining the balance of power in Northeast Asia. If Pyungyang successively soft-lands through the recovery of its economy and its diplomatic normalization with Washington and Tokyo, however, it is expected that there will emerge a six-power competitive arrangement. In this case, interactions between the United States, Japan, and China, on one hand, and two Koreas, on the other hand, will actively take place, while Russian influences will diminish. This research provides several predictions about power relationships among the four major powers and in the Korean peninsular from short-, middle-, and long-term perspectives. From a short-term perspective, there exists a confrontation relationship between the U.S.-Japanese alliance and China on the regional level. It is predicted, on the level of the peninsular, that the U.S.-South Korean alliance and the South Korean-Japanese cooperative relationship will be maintained, along with the Chinese-North Korean alliance. From a middle-term perspective, the cross-recognition of two Koreas will weaken the U.S.-South Korean and Chinese-North Korean alliances. In this situation, the major powers as well as two Koreas will compete diplomatically with one another in order to establish a balance of power in Northeast Asia to their own advantage. From a long-term perspective, it can be assumed that change in the East Asia policy of the United States will lead to the weakening of its influence and, thus, the strengthening of the South Korean-Chinese relationship. At the same time, multilateral security cooperation would be institutionalized. In this case, South and North Koreas will vie not only with each other but also with the four major powers without regard to their existing alliance relationships. After the normalization of the North Korean-U.S. diplomatic relationship, China will not remain indifferent to the situation in which the peninsular will fall under the exclusive influence of the United States. Nevertheless, Washington will seek to induce the two Koreas to pursue pro-American policies, After the cross-recognition of two Koreas, Japan will actively make such an effort to gain economic access to North Korea that it will have economic influence on the peninsular, unlike United States and Chinese efforts to exercise security influence. If the relationships among the three major powers and, especially those between the United States and China, should develop in the form of strategic cooperation, progress would be made in North-South Korean relations and, therefore, peace would be established in Northeast Asia. On the other hand, when the relationships between the United States and China become worsened or when those between Japan and China develop into hegemonic competition, both of two Koreas will adopt a policy of maintaining the status quo in the peninsular, while trying to create a balance of power to their advantage in the region. In the meantime, each of the major powers will pursue a policy of unifying the peninsular on the basis of its own superior power position. The purposes of this paper is to predict the possible rearrangement of power relationships in the context of increasing insecurity in Northeast Asia and to examine South Korea's security measures. For these purposes, first of all, it describes the aspects of conflict and cooperation in the triangular relationships of the United States, Japan, and China, which resulted not only from the collapse of the Soviet Union but also from the subsequent weakening of Russian influence. It is predicted from a short-term perspective that those relationships will tend to be cooperative in their economic and security aspects. From a long-term perspective, however, they will show increasing conflict as the result of hegemonic competition, including emerging confrontation between the United States and China, around the year of 2020 when the latter's level of GNP becomes highest in the world. Secondly, the research examines the trend of changes in power relationship and possible new arrangements in Northeast Asia. By doing so, it intends to provide South Korea's security measures. Since the existing arrangement of confrontation between the United States-Japanese alliance and China is expected to change into one of military and hegemonic competition between Japan and China, along with the diminution of American influence, South Korea and other Asian countries need to prepare for it. Thirdly, the paper presents several models of power arrangements likely to develop around the Korean peninsular. In particular, it is predicted that, in the process of competition among the countries concerned after the cross-recognition of two Koreas, they and the four major powers will contend diplomatically with one another in order to gain more influence and security. Despite existing confrontation between the United States-South Korean alliance and Japanese-South Korean cooperative relationship, on one hand, and the Chinese-North Korean alliance, on the other hand, there is a likelihood that a new cooperative military relationship between South Korea and China will result from the reinforcement of their economic cooperation as well as from North Korea's diplomatic normalization with the United States and Japan. Finally, this research provides South Korea's security measures to meet the rearrangement of power relationship in Northeast Asia and its effects on the peninsular. (1) Seoul should proceed with active security diplomacy designed to produce a balance of power in the region. In the 21st century, by attaining its goal of becoming an advanced nation, South Korea has to enter into a five-major power system. In this system, it should play the role of a balancer in maintaining peace and the balance of power by carrying out an active strategy of engagement. In addition, it not only should contain the North Korean threat through a Bismarck-policy of forming various alliances, but it also should build strong mechanisms for its security. (2) Bilateral alliance relationships should be strengthened. Although the U.S.-South Korean alliance has recently loosened, it will be of greater strategic value in checking a Chinese threat in the case of deepening Sino-American confrontation in the 21st century. The South Korean-Japanese cooperative relationship has to be more extended in political. military, and cultural areas. The friendly relationship between Seoul and Baijing also should be extended on the basis of their economic cooperation so as to pave the way for the unification of the peninsular. (3) A system of multilateral security cooperation should be created in the Northeast Asia. Although there has been no tradition of security dialogues and confidence among the major powers, the South Korean government has to play a leading role in establishing such a system as an institutional mechanism for the peace and security of the peninsular. Because South Korea, in comparision with the major powers, has limited military capabilities to guarantee its security, it should depend upon preventive diplomacy through multilateral security cooperation in the case of a crisis in the peninsular or territorial and maritime disputes in the region. (4) Certain measures should be taken to reinforce South Korean armed forces in the direction of attaining self-reliant national defense. Based on a self-sufficient defense strategy, the armed forces have to be capable of defending against any probable external invasions. In preparation for the existing North Korean threat as well as for any expansionist moves resulting from Sino-American hegemonic competion and the military buildups of China and Japan, South Korea should strengthen its naval forces and accelerate the modernization of military equipments and weapons. The above-mentioned measures are necessary for maintaining peace and security in Northeast Asia and the peninsular. Moreover. they will provide a basis for Korean unification.

온라인 소매 플랫폼과 입점업체 간의 최저소매가 보장약정에 대한 공정거래법의 적용 - EU의 온라인 여행중개업체 사건들을 중심으로 -

이기종 한국경제법학회 2016 경제법연구 Vol.15 No.2

The retail price MFN clauses adopted between online retail platforms and suppliers tend to soften competition among retailers, as well as supplies, and restrict entry in retail markets, while they might enhance efficiency by preventing free riding. The competition authorities of EU member states, which dealt with online travel agent (OTA) cases, split on the assessment of the overall effect of these clauses on competition. Most agencies allowed so-called narrow MFN clauses, while German authority prohibited both narrow and wide MFN clauses. This paper found that retail price MFN clauses, both narrow and wide, raise serious competition concern, while they produce insignificant efficiencies regarding the prevention of free riding. Especially incumbent online retail platforms could effectively foreclose the market through retail MFN clauses, as they could prevent innovative startups from entering the market with low prices. Thus rigorous enforcement of competition law is required to keep the platform markets open and competitive. Under the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act retail price MFN clauses could be regulated by the provisions on the abuse of dominance, unfair trade practices, as well as undue concerted practices. 온라인 소매 플랫폼들이 입점업체들에 대하여 부과하는 최저소매가 보장약정(retail price MFN clause)은 가격경쟁을 완화시키고 신규진입을 억제할 우려가 있다고 지적된 반면, 무임승차 방지 등을 통해 효율을 증진시킨다는 항변도 제기되어, 그 허용범위에 관해 EU 회원국 경쟁당국 간에 이견이 존재하고 있는 상황이다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 쟁점들을 가장 잘 드러내주는 EU 각국의 온라인 여행중개업체(OTA) 사건들을 검토한 결과, 최저소매가 보장약정의 경쟁제한적 효과는 매우 심각한 데 반해서 무임승차 방지 등 효율 증대 효과는 미약하며 그 근거도 불확실하다는 결론을 얻었다. 특히 온라인 소매 플랫폼의 경우에는 그 양면시장성으로부터 발생하는 간접적 네트워크 외부효과로 인해 대규모 플랫폼 사업자에 대한 공급업자들의 의존도가 매우 크고, 소위 임계규모를 확보하지 못한 플랫폼이 시장에서 생존할 수 없기 때문에, 가격우위를 무기로 하는 신규진입을 봉쇄하는 효과를 갖는 최저소매가 보장약정은 이제 막 개화하기 시작한 플랫폼 시장에서의 혁신을 심각하게 저해할 우려가 있다. 이러한 경쟁제한의 우려는 소위 소폭 약정의 경우에도 유사하게 나타난다. 따라서 최저소매가 보장약정의 당사자가 시장지배적 사업자인 경우에는 시장지배적 지위남용 금지규정을 적용하고, 시장지배력이 없거나 이를 입증하기 어렵더라도 소매업자에 대한 공급업자의 의존도가 큰 경우에는 불공정거래행위에의 해당 여부를 적극적으로 검토할 필요가 있다. 또한 공급업자의 담합에 소매업자가 최저소매가 보장약정을 통해 적극 개입한 경우에는 소매업자에게도 부당공동행위 금지규정을 적용하는 방안을 강구할 필요가 있다.

공정거래법상 공동연구개발의 규제에 관한 연구

이기종 연세법학회 2002 연세법학 Vol.8 No.2

Cooperative R&D could have pro-competitive effects as well as anti-competitive ones. Antitrust must consider both of them. Anti-competitive R&D cooperation itself could be condemned under Art. 19 Sec. 1(8) of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act of Korea(MRFTA) according to the rule of reason analysis. Ancillary restraints to the R&D cooperation could be found legal under the doctrine of ancillary restraints. Even the hard core cartels could be permitted according to the "Guidelines on the applicability of Article 81 of the EC Treaty to horizontal co-operation areements " of EU under certain conditions. To facilitate pro-competitive R&D cooperation: 1) the antitrust authorities should not challenge R&D cooperation when the participants collectively account for no more than 25% of each relevant market; 2) the authorities should not challenge R&D cooperation when there will be a sufficient number of credible R&D poles left after the cooperation. And in the long run Art. 19 Sec. 1 and Sec. 2 of MRFTA must be changed into general provisions to condemn anti-competitive R&D cooperation without doubt and to allow pro-competitive R&D cooperation more easily.

교육환경이 농촌정주의식에 미치는 영향과 대책

이기종 경남발전연구원 1998 중점정책연구 기본연구 Vol.- No.-

주한미군과 한반도 평화

이기종 경희대 국제평화연구소 1997 平和硏究 Vol.10 No.1

동북아 관광협력체제 구축과 한반도

이기종 경희대학교 인류사회재건연구원 2007 OUGHTOPIA Vol.22 No.1

국가간의 관광협력은 국제관광을 저해하는 각종 장애 요인을 제거하고 국제관광의 발전을 통해 상호 이익을 도모하기 위한 국가 간의 공동 노력을 의미한다. 국가들은 경제적ㆍ기술적으로 서로 연계하면서 하나의 상호의존적인 국경 없는 세계를 지역적으로 형성해 가고 있다. 동북아시아 지역의 자연경관, 문화적 우수성에서의 관광자원이 구미에 비해 떨어지지 않음에도 불구하고 인바운드를 포함한 관광발전이 지연되었음에는 지역협력시스템이 제대로 작동되지 않고 있음이 주요 요인이라고 파악되었다. 동북아시아는 문화적 다양성이 존재하나 문화충돌이 서구, 아랍권에 비해 덜하고 공존하고 있으며, 동북아시아 각국이 경제ㆍ관광 발전을 적극적으로 추구함은 동북아시아 협력체제 추진에 순기능적 요소가 될 것이다. 그러나 동북아시아는 동북아의 분단국 문제, 영토분쟁, 중ㆍ일 경쟁 구도와 함께 최근 북한 핵실험으로 각국의 핵개발 경쟁 가능성 등 위협요인이 경제ㆍ관광 협력 체제를 추진하는 크나큰 장애요인이 되고 있다. 동북아시아 협력체제 구축과 장차 동북아시아 공동체를 모색함에 있어서는 기능주의 통합 이론에서의 ‘가능한 현실적인 공동이익의 향유를 통한 공감대 형성’이 촉발요인이 되고 있는 바, 동북아시아 각국이 협력 가능한 모든 부문을 찾아야 할 것이나, 특히 관광교류협력은 이 지역에서의 평화를 수립하고 문화ㆍ경제 발전에 기여를 하게 되어 동북아시아 공동체 모색에 가장 큰 모멘텀을 제공하게 될 것이다.

Patterns and mechanisms of structural variations in human cancer

이기종,주영석 생화학분자생물학회 2018 Experimental and molecular medicine Vol.50 No.-

Next-generation sequencing technology has enabled the comprehensive detection of genomic alterations in human somatic cells, including point mutations, chromosomal rearrangements, and structural variations (SVs). Using sophisticated bioinformatics algorithms, unbiased catalogs of SVs are emerging from thousands of human cancer genomes for the first time. Via careful examination of SV breakpoints at single-nucleotide resolution as well as local DNA copy number changes, diverse patterns of genomic rearrangements are being revealed. These “SV signatures” provide deep insight into the mutational processes that have shaped genome changes in human somatic cells. This review summarizes the characteristics of recently identified complex SVs, including chromothripsis, chromoplexy, microhomology-mediated breakage-induced replication (MMBIR), and others, to provide a holistic snapshot of the current knowledge on genomic rearrangements in somatic cells.

수처리에 이용되는 미생물과 이의 활성도에 관한 연구

이기종,정원화 단국대학교 대학원 1992 學術論叢 Vol.16 No.-

Bacterial distribution and composition in wastewater and their removing activities of LAS(linear alkyl sulfonate), starch, phosphorus and nitrogen were analysed with samples of influent raw water, 1st sedimentary basin, aeration tank and returning sludge in Daejon wastewater treatment factory, which were collected on 10th August, 1991. The number of heterotrophic bacteria were ranged from 4.1 x 10^6 to 1.6 x 10^8 CFU/ml, of which phosphate accumulating bacteria occupied ND to 6.0 x 10^3 CFU/ml. Denitrifying bacteria were distributed from 1.0 x 10^5 to 3.6 x 10^6 CFU/ml. The composition of bacterial community was almost same in all the samples. But Corynebacterium and Micrococcus were dominant genera as Gram positive bacteria and Enterobacter and Acinetobacter as Gram negative bacteria. Denitryfying activity was appeared in Corynebacterium and Pseudomonas whose potential activity were 9.02ug-N_2/1/day and 2.02ug-N_2/1/day respectively. Phosphate accumulating activity was appeared in Corynebacterium. Enterobacter and Acinetobacter whose activity were so high as 76% to 87%, while LAS decomposing activity was appeared in Enterobacter, Pseudomonas and Alcaligenes and starch decomposing activity in Corynebacterium, Enterobacter and Micrococcus but their activities were comparatively low ranging from 7% to 25%.

탈냉전시대와 남북한 관계의 변화

이기종 경희대학교 아태지역연구원 1994 아태연구 Vol.1 No.-

The new international order has produced several positive results for the South-North relations. First, The S-N mutual agreement pursues to institutionalize publicly for coexistence of S-N Korea and has made the important compromise in an effort to maintain acease fire. Second, The admission to the United Nations of S-N Korea has enabled the two koreas enlarged their diplomacy arena to the world. As a results, North Korea changed their motto "the one Korea" to the "two Koreas". Third, the South Korea successfully achieved nomalization of diplomatic relations with China and Russia since its nothern policy became to be in accord with China and Russia's policy for reformation or openness. Meanwhile Noth korea also has promoted a serious meetings for the nomalization of diplomatic relationship with Japan and the United States. Fourth, in this condition, the exchanges in human resources and various merchandise between North and South Korea are vigorousely pursued and especially along with the North Korean's opening policy to foreign countries. Trading between South and North Korea is likely to be activated. However, the negative effects on S-N Korea given by collapse of socialist states and an international order led by the United States, North Korea begins to feel threatened of isolation from the outside. In consequence, North Korea tries to maintain its regime by reinforcing its "Chuche" ideology and has developed nuclear strategy. North Korea maintains unchanged strateges against the United States. The main reasons are the first generation revolutionaries are still alive and well. The Kim's hereditary government thinks that they would rather adhere to their own way of socialism using the threat strateges inside and outside than adopting the open-door policy through S-N exchange. The North depends its future on the nuclear development as its primary policy as they are anxious about the economic gap with the South and America's single pole supremacy threat their subsistence. The factors that might bring fresh changes to S-N relations are first. North Korea might choose utilitarian line adapting itself to the new world order. Second, South Korea seperate the problems of nuclear development and S-N economic cooperation leading the Noth to open its doors. Third, Cease-fire agreement might be replaced by the peace agreement. Fourth, South-North relations might be institutionalized through summit meetings. Given that we should rule out any solution based military on any other kind of forces, which can cause unpredictable disaster for all Koreans on the peninsula, we must explore politica solutions to these problems. We should adopt policies that may encourage internationalist forces and reformist thinking within the leadership in North korea. These policies should include accepting North Korea's demand for normalization of it diplomatic and economic relations with the outside world, on the condition that the two Koreas closely cooperate to confine then nuclear programs only for peaceful purposes. Based on. This development, the Korean peninsula will be able to move forward into a united economic commonwealth and ultimately into a political commonwealth. Only whin South Korea pursue this course of action, the process of unification on the Korean peninsula can contribute to maintaining and furthering peace an stability in Northeast Asia and the world at large.

동북아에 있어서이 미.일.중 삼각관계와 한반도

이기종 경희대학교 한국정치연구소 2016 한국정치연구 Vol. No.

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