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鄭宇城,吳賢美 부산 외국어 대학교 1999 外大論叢 Vol.19 No.3
This paper empirically examines the forecast error sources and types of Management's accounting forecasts. The smaple consists of 135 firms which announced management' sales, ordinary income and net income forecasts in daily economic news papers(maeil and korea business newspaper) during the years of 1995 and 1996. The accuracy of forecasts is evaluated by the mean forecast errors, mens absolute forecast errors for the level and error rate. The results show that forecast errors of variables(sales, ordinary income and net income) are very large. and the results that accuracy of managements' evaluated by Theil's inequality coefficient also not so good compare with martingale forecast model. Among the variables, the forecasts of sales are more accurate than that of ordinary and net income, indication that cost is more difficult to forecast than sales. In addition to that, the result implies predicting of extrodinary income and expenditure is very difficults. The decomposition of mean square errors into three factors of economy wide factors, industry factors and firm specific factors shows that over the seventy percent of forecast errors is stemmed from the inaccurate forecast of firm specific factors affecting sales, ordinary and net income. This implies that forecasts can be improved by mainly focusing on the better projection of nation's economy. This result, however, implies internal and external accointing information users have to use for decision making very carefully. Another decomposition of mean square forecast errors into three patterns of bias, regression and random shows that most of the forecast errors of sales, ordinary and net income are attributable to the random factors(over 70%). But, in the case of some industry, bias errors are major pattern. This seems to relect the manager's presuppositon that this year sales, ordinary, net income would be always higher than that of previous year in case of our country of which economy is growing continously.
우리나라 파생상품 회계처리 기준에 관한 연구 : 기업회계기준에 관한 해석 [53-70]을 중심으로
鄭宇城,吳賢美 부산 외국어 대학교 2000 外大論叢 Vol.20 No.1
Concern has grown about the accounting and disclosure requirements for derivatives and hedging activities as the extent of use and the complexity of derivatives and hedging activities have rapidly increased in recent years. Changes in global financial markets and related financial innovations have led to the development of new derivatives used to manage exposures to risk, including interest rate, foreign exchange, price, and credit risks. So we korea built provision for derivatives and hedging, interpretation [53-70] in 1998. This paper evaluated interpretation for the Accounting Standard [53-70]. That interpretation is the latest accounting standard for derivatives Instruments in korea, and based on Fianacial Accounting stadards Board Statement No. 133(Accounting for derivatives Instruments and for Hedging Activities). Interpretation [53-70] is evaluated as follows, First, Derivative instruments represent rights or obligations that meet the definitions of assets or liabilities and should be reported in financial statements. Second, Derivative instruments should be measured at fair value, and adjust-ments to the carrying amounts of hedged items should reflect changes in their fair value that are attributable to the risk being hedged and that arise while the hedge is in effect. Third, Only items that are assets or liabilities should be reported as such in financial statements Sastly, Special accounting for items designated as being hedged should be provided only for qualifying items. Conclusionally, interpretation [53-70] contain provisions that consistent with requirements about accounting rules for derivatives and hedging.
鄭宇城,吳賢美 釜山外國語大學校 1997 外大論叢 Vol.17 No.1
This paper empirically examines the accuracy of managements' forecasts by firm characters. Further, the accuracy was compared to financial analysts' forecast (DaeWoo Securities Research Center). The sample consists of 95firms which announced managements' sales and earnings forecasts in daily economic newspapers(maeil and korea business newspaper) during the years of 1995 and 1996. Forecast errors are analyzed to infer the accuracy. Selected firm characteristics are firm size, types of industry, ownership share of major stockholders, and being a member of conglomerate. The result shows that managements tend to overestimate sales and earnings. No significant differences are found between managements and financial analysts' forecasts errors. The result shows that managers forecasts are not affected by firm characteristics. The result of this paper provides an evidence that managements' forecasts are useful information to investors. Thus, investor relation can be improved by disclosing managements' sales and earnings forecasts.