확률 기반의 위험등급평가 객관화 방안

신상식 ( Sang Sik Shin ),이길수 ( Kil Soo Lee ),조흥기 ( Heung Gi Cho ) 한국품질경영학회 2013 품질경영학회지 Vol.41 No.3

Purpose: To provide a variety of stable military supplies. risk should be avoided or removed. This paper aims to provide an objective method of risk assesruent for risk matrix to evaluate risk level. Methods: According to previous results of risk assesrnent through risk matrix. some parameters and probability density functions. which include characteristics of military supplies. are selected and Risk matrix is modelled based on that. Results: Results show that a proposed method can evaluate objectively risk level through the stochastic modelling and provide well-balanced risk assessments by categorizing into 3 levels such as high, middle and low level risk. Conclusion: A current risk assessment method includes substantial subjectivity of risk assessment and as a problem about military supplies comes up, we can not show any appropriate evidences for decision of risk assessment. We propose an objective scheme employing stochastic modelling with parameters and probability density functions.

군수품 정부품질보증 위험성 평가제도 개선을 위한 제언

안남수 한국품질경영학회 2023 품질경영학회지 Vol.51 No.2

Purpose: Nowadays, the risk assessment system is widely used in many industrial and public areas to reduce the possible risks. The system is used to determine the priorities of the government quality assurance works in Defense Agency for Technology and Quality. However, as the risk assessment system is used for other purposes, there are some items that need improvement, and in this study, we propose improvement plans by benchmarking the risk assessment systems of other institutions. Methods: In this paper, first, the procedures of risk assessment system used in many industrial sites were reviewed, and how each institution specialized and applied the system. Afterwards, by benchmarking various risk assessment systems, an improvement plan on how to operate the risk assessment system in the case of government quality assurance for centrally procured military supplies was presented, and practical application cases were presented to prove the usefulness of the improvement plan. Results: The proposed risk assessment system differs from the existing system in five major aspects. First, inputs, outputs, and key performance indicators were specified from the systematic point of view. Second, risk analysis was analyzed in four dimensions: probability of occurrence, impact, detection difficulty. Third, risk mitigation measures were classified, control, transfer, and sharing. Fourth, the risk mitigation measures were realized through document verification, product verification, process verification, and quality system evaluation. Finally, risk mitigation measures were implemented and the effectiveness of the risk mitigation measures was evaluated through effectiveness evaluation. Conclusions: In order for the risk assessment procedure proposed in this study to be applied to actual work, it is necessary to obtain the consent of the person involved in the work due to the increased time for risk identification and preparation of the government quality assurance log, and a change in the information system that performs the actual work is required. Therefore, the authors of this study plan to actively perform internal seminar presentations and work improvement suggestions to apply these research outputs to actual work.

미세먼지 언론 보도 내용분석 : 충남지역 미세먼지 관련 전국지와 지역지 비교

이현승(Hyunseung Lee),김혜정(Hyejung Kim),한지원(Jiwon Han),이성주(Sungju Lee),김영욱(Yungwook Kim) 한국언론학회 2021 한국언론학보 Vol.65 No.6

Risks including the particulate matter (PM) risk have been treated as an objective field, but recently, the view that risks should be viewed subjectively has grown as studies have found perceptions of the same risk to vary among people. This means risks are defined by the publics who are involved with the risk initiation, processes, and outcomes. In this context, the news media play a pivotal role as the dominant communication channel for the publics to get acquainted with diverse opinions about scientific information, characteristics, and severity of risks, which normally are invisible. However, the news does not always play a positive role in representing risks. Media, by its nature, tend to report sensitive and stimulating events with high social spillover, exaggerating certain aspects of the risk and omitting the rest. This kind of media reporting practice results in the formation of biased public opinion with selective risk information. This tendency is more pronounced when the cause of the risk is uncertain, the impact is greater, and when the consensus is not well established. A such, it is important to investigate how the media construct the PM risk. Since the PM risk is serious in the Chungnam region, it is also important to find out what kind of difference there is in the way national and local newspapers handle the PM risk. Based on this background, the study examined the news media representations of the PM risk through the content analysis based on agenda-setting theory and framing theory. Specifically, this study aimed to analyze news media coverage between national and local news frames about PM in the Province of Chungnam in order to investigate media representations, frames, news sources, and conflict structures. The results showed that the perceptions of PM risks in the Chungnam region were amplified due to workplace emissions such as coal-fired power stations and steel mills from 2019. The majority of articles represent simple information, mere data remotely related to PM, and neutral news coverage. The framing analysis results showed that PM-related news in the Chungnam region explained well the relationship between responsibility attributions and countermeasures for decreasing the level of PM. But there was a tendency to oversimplify and cover the PM issue as an independent event. This suggests that the news coverage on the PM issue in the Chungnam region is fragmentary and superficial without specific and clear solutions. The government and politicians, being the most used news sources and even the main actors in conflicts, have emerged as the key players to solve the PM risk. Furthermore, they functioned as the primary definer for the PM problem in the Chungnam region. However, there were no statistically significant differences between national and local newspaper coverages in the areas of media representations, frames, news sources, and conflict structures. These results suggest that local media should report more in-depth local risk issues based on locality and risk proximity. More theoretical implications were discussed based on the results.

Differentiated effects of risk perception dimensions on nuclear power acceptance in South Korea

Roh, Seungkook,Lee, Jin Won Elsevier 2018 Energy Policy Vol.122 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Perceptions of risk from nuclear power generation have received considerable attention as a significant determinant of public acceptance of nuclear power—a requirement to draw social and political support for nuclear power generation. However, the distinction between the dimensions of risk perception and the differentiated effects of such dimensions has been less explored. The present study demonstrates that two distinct dimensions of risk perception from nuclear plants—perceived intrinsic risk and extrinsic risk—reveal contrasting patterns of influence on the acceptance of nuclear power. Our results, using a sample from South Korea, show that the relative effect of perceived extrinsic risk from nuclear plants on the acceptance of nuclear power (compared to that of intrinsic risk) is stronger at higher levels of such acceptance than at lower levels. This finding provides implications for public policy to encourage the acceptance of nuclear power. Such policy should selectively choose between the two approaches—reducing the public's perceived level of intrinsic risk and that of extrinsic risk—depending on whether the policy's aims is to soften opposing voices or to promote positive voices for nuclear power.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Dimensions of risk perception from nuclear power plants are discussed. </LI> <LI> Specifically, perceived intrinsic risk and extrinsic risk are proposed. </LI> <LI> Construct validity of these two risk perception dimensions is investigated. </LI> <LI> They reveal contrasting patterns in their effects on nuclear power acceptance. </LI> <LI> This finding provides implications for nuclear power policy. </LI> </UL> </P>

모자 보건의료서비스 종사자를 위한 고위험 임신 및 합병증 임신 분류

황종윤 한국모자보건학회 2020 한국모자보건학회지 Vol.24 No.2

High-risk pregnancy is the probability of adverse pregnancy out come is increased over the general pregnant population. Some high-risk pregnancy is the result of a medical condition present before pregnancy. In other cases, a medical condition that develops during pregnancy causes a pregnancy to become high risk. The reason why high-risk pregnancy is importa nt is detecting the risk factors for high risk pregnancy early and preventing the complicated pregnancy. Korean society of Obstetrics and Gynecology (KSOG) announced the classification of high-risk pre gnancy including 95 risk factors: obstetrics risk factors, medical risk factors, physical risk factors and risk factors of current pregnancy. However, this announcement of high-risk pregnancy by KSOG was limited for maternal-fetal healthcare providers to apply their working and making policy. First this didn't include the conception of the complicated pregnancy and high-risk delivery. Second this did not separate the risk factors depend on before and during pregnancy. This review briefly evaluates the classification of high-risk pregnancy by KSOG and suggest the new classification including the complicated pregnancy and high-risk delivery for maternal-fetal healthcare providers.

Do Risk Disclosures in Annual Reports Help Investors Access Firm Risks?

이상노 한국산업경제학회 2017 산업경제연구 Vol.30 No.1

This study investigates the effect of the section of risk factors in annual reports on the idiosyncratic volatility of returns using textual analysis. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have required firms to include risk factor section that makes the company speculative or risky since 2005 and expected its information to help investors assess firm risks. In this study, I extract idiosyncratic risks from annual reports using textual analysis, and regress it with three measures of idiosyncratic volatility of return. I find that idiosyncratic risks appeared in the section of annual reports have a significantly positive effect on the idiosyncratic volatility of return, confirming incremental information content of risk disclosures. In particular, I find that investors assess idiosyncratic risks of a firm by comparing its risks with market risks. The findings provide insights in the relationship between the disclosure of risk factors and the idiosyncratic volatility of returns, and, in turn, provide evidence to support SEC's argument on the inclusion of risk factors in annual reports.

Development of Risk Rating and Index for Coastal Activity Locations

Young-Jai Lee,Cho-Young Jung,Ja-Yeong Gu 해양환경안전학회 2020 海洋環境安全學會誌 Vol.26 No.3

This paper develops a risk index based on an indicator of risk assessment in terms of coastal activity location and accident type. The risk index is derived from a formula which adds the consequence of failure to a vulnerability value, then subtracts the mitigation value. Specifically, the consequence of failure is the number of casualties in coastal activity locations. An indicator of vulnerability refers to coastal environment elements and social elements. A pointer of mitigation includes managerial and organizational elements that indicate the capabilities of coastal activities. A risk rating of coastal activity location is found from a risk matrix consisting of the accident location and type. The purpose of this study is to prevent accidents at coastal activity locations by allowing the Coastal police guard to monitor effectively and inform visitors of potential risks.

An Evaluation of the Quantitative Risk of Plastic Process Manufacturing Industries by Means of the 4M Method

( Dong Ho Lee ),( Jong In Kim ) 한국안전학회(구-한국산업안전학회) 2007 International Journal of Safety Vol.6 No.2

This study includes a case study among plastic process manufacturing companies, based on which, the currently used 4M method is applied in terms of machine, media, man, and management, to conduct quantitative risk evaluation, and thus to contribute to reducing human and material loss as well as preventing accidents in industrial fields. The result of this study is analyzed based on the 4M-risk assessment to find out the hazardous risk elements, and the quantitative evaluation made it predictable the value of risk(frequency x intensity) in such classified levels as serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk. Further, Among the businesses with hazardous risk elements and high frequency of industrial disaster, risk analysis was conducted for each process, and as a result, 38 cases among 76, including those of serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk, were improved, and the risk was reduced. Besides, it is thought that with the engineering approach with 4M-Risk Assessment, the attempt to improve safety level contributes to prevention of accidents.

A Survey of Information Security Risk Analysis Methods

Armaghan Behnia,Rafhana Abd Rashid,Junaid Ahsenali Chaudhry 한국산학기술학회 2012 SmartCR Vol.2 No.1

There are already many models of risk assessment and more are emerging every day. They all have the same fundamental target, but most attempt to hit the target from very different approaches. Some approaches can be applied to all types of risk, while others are specific to particular risks. A particularly dangerous risk in the global economy today is the security of information. Information is a key asset for organizations, and reducing the risk of information compromise is a high priority. This study proposed a methodology for information security risk analysis in which the assets, vulnerabilities, threats, and controls of an organization are linked. The main purpose of the study is to compare and clarify the different activities, inputs, and outputs required by each model of information security risk assessment and the analysis that effectively addresses the risks of information security. At the moment, there are numerous risk analysis methodologies available, some of which are qualitative while others are more quantitative in nature. These methodologies have a common goal to estimate the overall value of risk. An organization must choose the most proper methodology based on their specific requirements.

위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 어선의 사고 위험도 분석과 사고 주요 요인 도출에 관한 연구

원유경,김동진 해양환경안전학회 2019 해양환경안전학회지 Vol.25 No.2

우리나라 해역에서 발생하는 해양사고 중 어선사고가 약 70%를 차지하고 있음에도 불구하고, 대부분의 연구는 해양사고 전체를 대상으로 하고 있으며 단순히 사고 발생률에 대한 분석과 사고 발생 빈도를 줄이기 위한 대책 마련에 중점을 두고 있다. 그러나 효과적인 사고 저감 대책의 수립과 이를 실행하기 위해서는 정량적인 사고 위험도 예측 및 평가가 반드시 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 해양안전심판원의 최근 5년간의 어선사고 통계에 근거하여 9가지 사고유형에 대한 위험도를 연도별로 비교하였다. 또한 현재 우리나라의 경우 객관적인 위험도 평가기준이 없다는 점을 고려하여 이에 대한 대안으로 사고 유형별 사고 빈도와 사고 피해의 조합을 4사분면 상에 표시하는 2차원 사고 빈도-피해 매트릭스를 제안하고 이를 이용하여 사고 빈도와 사고 피해의 영향을 쉽게 확인할 수 있도록 하였다. 이러한 과정을 통한 위험도 평가 결과는 저감대책을 수립하고 안전대책을 마련하는 정책 제안자로 하여금 보다 다양하고 현실적인 사고 저감 대책을 마련하는데 도움을 줄 것이다. 또한 위험도 평가 매트릭스를 이용하여 각 사고유형에 대한 인적오류를 포함한 사고 원인의 상대적인 빈도 및 결과를 비교함으로써 사고 유형별로 원인에 따른 차별화된 위험 저감 대책을 수립할 수 있다. Though, fishing vessel accidents account for 70% of all maritime accidents in Korean waters, most research has focused on identifying causes and developing mitigation policies in an attempt to reduce this rate. However, predicting and evaluating accident risk needs to be done before the implementation of such reduction measures. For this reasons, we havve performed a risk analysis to calculate the risk of accidents and propose a risk criteria matrix with 4 quadrants, within one of which forecasted risk is plotted for the relative comparison of risks. For this research, we considered 9 types of fishing vessel accidents as reported by Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST). Given that no risk evaluation criteria have been established in Korea, we established a two-dimensional frequency-consequence grid consisting of four quadrants into which paired frequency and consequence for each type of accident are presented. With the simple structure of the evaluation model, one can easily verify the effect of frequency and consequence on the resulting risk within each quadrant. Consequently, these risk evaluation results will help a decision maker employ more realistic risk mitigation measures for accident types situated in different quadrants. As an application of the risk evaluation matrix, accident types were further analyzed using accident causes including human error (factor) and appropriate risk reduction options may be established by comparing the relative frequency and consequence of each accident cause.