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한상열(Sang Yoel Han),김태균(Tae Kyun Kim),조재환(Jae Hwan Cho),최관(Kwan Choi) 한국산림과학회 1999 한국산림과학회지 Vol.88 No.1
The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger`s causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : ① The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. ② The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. ③ An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. ④ An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.