데이터 마이닝을 이용한 주택가격 결정요인에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2017 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.15 No.3

This study empirically analyzed the determinants of housing price using decision tree analysis, multiple regression analysis, and neural network analysis. The dependent variables are apartment real transaction price, independent variables are apartment size, apartment floor, construction year, city hall straight distance, 2 lane straight distance, 4 lane straight distance, subway station straight distance, Gangnam area, Gangseo area, urban area and Gangbuk area. As a result, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the neural network analysis is the smallest, and the linear correlation value shows the highest correlation between the real and predicted values. According to the decision tree analysis, the small size is divided into 70m2 instead of 59m2, so it can be seen that the small and medium area is popular because 2-3 person households are popular. As a result of multiple regression analysis, apartment size, number of floors, 2 lane straight distance, and 4 lane straight distance were positively affected by housing price, while city hall straight distance, subway station straight distance, population density and region from Gangnam area to Gangseo area, Gangbuk area and urban area were negative.

패널 VAR모형을 이용한 한국 주택 매매, 전세시장에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae-Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2015 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.13 No.2

In this study, the dynamic relationships between the housing sales market and the Chonsei market use VAR model, and for the spatial range, 16 metropolitan cities·provinces are set, and for the timely range,from the first quarter of 2006 to third quarter of 2014 are set to divide before and after the global financial crisis to perform the empirical analysis. For the macroeconomic variables effecting the housing market, interest rate was set as CD interest rate, the economic growth and housing demand were set as number of economically active people, and finally, the housing supply was set as land transaction volume. As a result of the empirical analysis, the number of economically active people showed to have plus (+) effect and the land transaction volume to have minus (-) effect to the housing sales price in general. When we look at the difference before and after the financial crisis, in the period before the crisis, the Chonsei price and the CD interest rate had minus (-) effect on the housing sales price, but on the other hand, in the period after the crisis, it showed to have a plus (+) effect. This is because in the period before the financial cris, the housing sales market was in the increasing period, and realization of capital gain was possible through sales to have almost no influence of the lease market of housing Chonsei market to the housing sales market, but in the period after the crisis, the housing sales market maintained downward stabilization, but the Chonsei price increase to be judged that the Chonsei market has big influence on the sales market. Regarding influence of CD interest rate on the housing sales market, the reason that it showed plus (+) influence after the financial crisis is judged to be due to the reason that because the government executed continuous decrease in interest rate to activate the housing sales market, but the sales market is maintaining downward stabilization.

시계열 분석을 이용한 서울시 주택시장과 오피스시장의 상관관계에 대한 연구

전해정(Hae Jung Chun) 서울연구원 2013 서울도시연구 Vol.14 No.3

경제성장과 소득 불균형 간의 관계에 관한 연구

전해정(Hae Jung Chun) 서울연구원 2014 서울도시연구 Vol.15 No.2

저출산, 고령화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae-Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2015 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.13 No.4

This study examines the effects of low birthrate and aging populations on housing prices by setting proxy variables and examined the variables as a panel data across districts. Low birthrate is proxied through youth dependency ratio and number of newborns, aging through old dependency ratio, liquidity through mortgage loans, housing supply through housing permit performance, economic growth and income growth through unemployment rate, and finally, housing prices through housing transaction price index. Time frame of the data analysis was set from 1Q of 2010 through 4Q of 2013, and spatial scope was set to 25 districts within Seoul. Empirical analysis results show that youth dependency ratio and number of births has a positive impact (+) on housing prices, while old dependency ratio has a negative impact (-). 1% decrease in youth dependency ratio approximately translated to 3.18% decrease in housing prices, and 1% increase in old dependency ratio effected housing prices by a decrease of approximately 1.18%. Additionally, housing permit performance has a positive effect (+) and mortgage loans has a negative effect (-) which were different from the expected results. The study determines that this was one of the root causes of decline in housing prices during the global financial crisis.

주택매매, 전세, 월세가격 변동성 결정요인 분석에 관한 실증연구- 마코프 국면전환 모형을 이용하여 -

전해정(Hae jung Chun) 한국부동산학회 2017 不動産學報 Vol.70 No.-

본 연구는 주택 매매가격, 전세가격, 월세가격 변동성 결정요인을 마코프 국면전환 모형을 이용해 실증분석하고자 한다. 종속변수는 아파트 매매가격지수, 전세가격지수, 월세가격지수로 하였고 독립변수는 소비자물가지수, 인구, 실업률과 CD금리로 설정하였으며 공간적 범위는 서울시로 시간적 범위는 2002년 5월부터 2015년 12월까지로 하였다. 분석결과, 주택매매가격에 불황기에는 금리가 양(+)의 영향을, 호황기에는 실업률이 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주택전세가격에 불황기에는 소비자물가지수, 인구, 금리가 양(+)의 영향을 실업률이 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고 주택월세가격에 호황기는 실업률이 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 국면전환확률을 살펴보면, 주택매매가격은 불황기가 유지될 확률이 더 높은 반면 주택전세가격과 월세가격은 호황기가 유지될 확률이 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of housing sales price, Chonsei price and monthly rent price volatility using the Markov Switching Model. (2) RESEARCH METHOD Dependent variables were apartment sales price index, Chonsei price index and monthly rent price index. Independent variables were set as consumer price index(CPI), population, unemployment rate, and CD interest rate. The spatial range is Seoul. The time range is from May 2002 to December 2015. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The analysis shows that CD interest rate has a positive effect on housing sales price during recession period and the negative effect on the unemployment rate during the boom period. In the recession period, CPI, population, and interest rate has positive effect on Chonsei price and the unemployment rate was negative. the unemployment rate has negative effect on monthly rent price during the recession period. 2. RESULTS In order for the government to revitalize the housing market, it is necessary not to encourage the national economy through revitalization of the housing market as in the past, but to create jobs through economic growth, and to increase the household income to settle the housing circulation system do. The government should implement various proactive support measures such as expansion of public rental housing and extension of housing voucher system to stabilize ordinary people s housing.

오피스텔 매매가격 결정요인에 관한 실증연구

전해정(Chun, Hae-Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2015 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.13 No.3

This study made an empirical analysis on the decision factors of the sale price of officetel located in downtown area in Seoul, Gangnam, Mapo, and Yeouido from December 2002 to February 2015 using vector auto regression(VAR). A proxy variable of economic growth was set to economically active population, interest rate to CD interest rate, and rent was set to regional annual returns of rent. As a result of the analysis, it was identified that there is difference by region but annual rent returns of officetel makes positive effect on the sale price of officetel, and it was verified that the sale price of officetel makes consistent positive effect on the annual rent returns. It was identified that the CD interest rate makes slightly positive response to the sale price of officetel, and economically active population makes positive effect on the sale price of officetel. As there is great possibility for officetel to be used as residence due to the rapid increase of single-member households and two-member households, the government authorities recognized officetel as housing that there is a need to monitor the rent and sale price constantly as the housing market.

딥 러닝을 이용한 주택가격 예측에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae Jung),양혜선(Yang, Hye Seon) 한국주거환경학회 2019 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.17 No.2

The purpose of this study is to estimate housing prices using deep running. The simple RNN, LSTM, and GRU models, which are evaluated to be suitable for time series forecasting, are based on the time series data of apartment real price index, interest rate, household loan, building permit area and consumer price index. As a result of the empirical analysis, it is confirmed that the prediction power of the GRU model is superior to that of the learning data by evaluating the performance of forecasting power on apartment real price index based on the RMSE value. On the other hand, in the verification data, it is confirmed that the prediction power of the RNN model is excellent. Also, if the performance of the deep running model is evaluated with accuracy, the accuracy of the RNN model and the GRU model is the highest. As a result of this study, the government needs to build and develop a system that can predict and diagnose the housing market by using the deep learning technique that combines artificial neural network and big data to advance the housing market.

소비심리와 주택매매가격이 경매낙찰가율에 미치는 영향

전해정(Chun, Hae Jung) 한국주거환경학회 2018 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.16 No.3

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of consumer sentiment and housing sales price on the housing auction price ratio. This study was analyzed using panel vector error correction model(VECM). The independent variable is the housing auction price ratio and the dependent variables are the housing consumer sentiment index and housing sales price. The temporal range is from July 2011 to May 2017, and the spatial ranges are Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Incheon. As a result of variance decomposition analysis, the explanatory power of the housing auction price ratio was the largest, and the housing consumer sentiment index and the housing sales price showed the highest explanatory power. As a result of impulse response analysis, the housing auction price ratio showed a positive (+) response to the housing consumer sentiment index. The housing auction price ratio showed a positive (+) response to the housing sales price, and the housing sales price showed a positive (+) response to the housing auction price ratio. Housing sales price and consumer sentiment index showed a positive(+) response on each other. The housing sales market and the auction market were found to be coupled. Especially, it was found that consumer sentiment had a great influence on the housing market and aution market.

주택 전세/매매가격비율 변동분석에 관한 연구

전해정(Chun, Hae Jung) 한국부동산학회 2013 不動産學報 Vol.53 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study is to theoretically and empirically analyze the dynamic correlation between house lease price (on a deposit basis), house sale price, and house lease price to house sale price ratio. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In this study, research method was through time series analysis (VECM). (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As a result of the impulse response analysis, the house lease price to house sale price ratio shows positive (+) response against 1 unit impulse of house lease price, and the house lease price to house sale price shows negative (-) response against 1 unit impulse of house sale price. Therefore, it is shown that the results of theoretical models and empirical analysis are same because sale price increase gives negative impact to house lease price to house sale price as the previous theoretical models and cointegration coefficients. In addition, as a result of the examination on the size of the reaction of the house lease price to house sale price ratio against 1 unit impulse of house sale price and 1 unit impulse of house lease price, it is shown that the signs are in the opposite direction, but the impact and extent of sale price are greater than those of the lease price 2. RESULTS The signs of the theoretical models and empirical models are consistent on the whole. There is differences between regional but there is a possibility that the current increase of house lease price to house sale price causes the further increase of house sale price. Therefore, the government should prepare the policy measures for the stabilization of house price and the effective and immediate counter plan by continuously watching house market.