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실시간 프로젝트 위험관리를 위한 베이지안 네트워크 모형의 개발
김지영(Jeeyoung Kim),안선웅(Suneung Ahn) 대한산업공학회 2010 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.11
Most companies have been increasing temporary work projects to maximize the usage of their resources. They also have been developing the effective techniques for analyzing and managing the state of the projects. In order to monitor the state of a project in real-time and predict the project"s future state more accurately, this paper suggests the Bayesian Network(BN) as a tool for discovering the causes of project risk and presenting the failure probability of the project. The proposed BN modeling method with consideration of the Earned Value Management(EVM) method shows how to induce the predictive and conditional probability of the risk occurrence in the future. The advantages of the suggested model are (1) that the cause of a project risk can be easily figured out via the BN, (2) that the future value of the project can be sufficiently increased by updating relevant components of the project, and (3) that more credible prediction can be made in the similar and future situation by using the data obtained in current analysis. A numerical example is also given.
Fuzzy-FME을 이용한 항공 안전관리 리스크 평가 모형
박지현(Jihyun Park),박창순(Changsoon Park),안선웅(Suneung Ahn) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2015 한국산업경영시스템학회 학술대회 Vol.2015 No.추계
The major issue in aircraft industry is aviation safety management because of demand improvement and advancement of the aircraft. This study is to assess the risks for aviation safety management using IRPN( importance-risk priority number) which is added to importance coefficient from RPN(risk priority number). In FMEA, RPN requires the factors like the occurrence (O), Severity (S), and Detection (D) of each failure mode to be precisely evaluated. Therefore, the severity and detection is derived by the value from FMEA of expert group based on the Fuzzy theory. The occurrence is calculated from the accident statistics of IATA(international air transport association) database. Particularly, this study introduces importance coefficient to prevent from RPN distortions. It is also derived from FMEA based on the Fuzzy theory. Finally, the critical ranking of risk factors according to I-RPN is compared with the existing research.