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서양원 ( Yang Weon Seo ) 연세대학교 통일연구소 2008 통일연구 Vol.12 No.1
The Theory of Optimum Currency Area(OCA) pioneered by Robert Mundell could be applied to inter-Korean monetary unification. In terms of methodology, South and North Korea may consider two ways to achieve monetary unification: EU-style gradual union or rapid unification like what happened in Germany. However, the two Koreas appear to be placed in a situation in which both states would likely pursue a mixed method. Though the two states are pursuing a gradual unification at the moment, the two societies also need to be prepared for a sudden change of situation in which circumstances would dictate a rapid monetary unification. The kernel of the Korean monetary unification process would be to create a single currency and have a central bank manage it generally. As far as the single currency problem is concerned, it could be said that the two Koreas would be advised to unify their currency into the South Korean won and set a conversion ratio for the two currencies properly. This article attempts to discern the most appropriate conversion ratios for the South Korean won and the North Korean won based on several important priorities: Reducing unemployment in North Korea; Maintaining North Korean export competitiveness; Restraining North Korean emigration to South Korea; and Easing North Korean inflation. However, the ratios would keep changing with international politics as well as the economic situation in both Koreas, with inter-Korean trade and other forms of economic cooperation. The important issue is that the officials would have to take political, social and other conditions of their countries into consideration and make decisions from an economic point of view. That way, the two Koreas would maintain sustainable growth rates after monetary unification. In order to make an economic judgment, South Korea will need to review its North Korea policies that would help foster an inter-Korean exchange market. Perhaps the two currencies would be traded unofficially in the initial stage. However, an inter-Korean exchange market would function as a real market that would evaluate the value of the currencies later. South Korea could also consider creating financial goods related to the North Korean growth rate to attract public and private investment from foreign countries, as well as domestic capital, as part of South Korean efforts to minimize the financial cost and other negative after effects of inter-Korean unification.
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이정석(Jung-Suk Lee),권동일(Dongil Kwon),김광호(Kwang-ho Kim),서양원(Yang Won Seo) 대한기계학회 2004 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2004 No.8
Apparent mechanical properties in structural components can be different from the initially designed values due to the formation of the residual stress in metal forming and welding. Therefore, the evaluation of residual stress has great importance in the reliability diagnosis of structural components. A nondestructive continuous indentation technique has been proposed to evaluate various strength concerning mechanical properties from the analysis of load-depth curve. In this study, quantitative residual stress estimation on API X65 welded joints for natural gas pipeline was performed by analyzing the variation of indentation loading curve by residual stress through a new proposed theoretical model. The residual stress from the indentation method was compared with that from the saw-cutting method.
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서양원 연세대학교 통일연구원 2008 통일연구 Vol.12 No.1
The Theory of Optimum Currency Area(OCA) Pioneered by Robert Mundell could be applied to inter-Korean monetary unification. In terms of methodology, South and North Korea may consider two ways to achieve monetary unification: EU-style gradual union or rapid unification like what happened in Germany. However, the two Koreas appear to be placed in a situation in which both states would likely pursue a mixed method. Though the two states are pursuing a gradual unification at the moment, the two societies also need to be prepared for a sudden change of situation in which circumstances would dictate a rapid monetary unification. The kernel of the Korean monetary unification process would be to create a single currency and have a central bank manage it generally. As far as the single currency problem is concerned, it could be said that the two Koreas would be advised to unify their currency into the South Korean won and set a conversion ratio for the two currencies properly. This article attempts to discern the most appropriate conversion ratios for the South Korean won and the North Korean won based on several important priorities: Reducing unemployment in North Korea; Maintaining North Korean export competitiveness; Restraining North Korean emigration to South Korea; and Easing North Korean inflation. However, the ratios would keep changing with international politics as well as the economic situation in both Koreas, with inter-Korean trade and other forms of economic cooperation. The important issue is that the officials would have to take political, social and other conditions of their conditions into consideration and make decisions from an economic point of view. That way, the two Koreas would maintain sustainable growth rates after monetary unification. In order to make an economic judgment, South Korea will need to review its North Korea policies that would help foster an inter-Korean exchange market. Perhaps the two currencies would be traded unofficially in the initial stage. However, an inter-Korean exchange market would function as a real market that would evaluate the value of the currencies later. South Korea could also consider creating financial goods related to the North Korean growth rate to attract public and private investment from foreign countries, as well as domestic capital, as part of South Korean efforts to minimize the financial cost and other negative after effects of inter-Korean unification.
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