농약 PLS 도입의 영향 및 농약가격과 농산물가격의 장기 균형관계 분석

문한필(Hanpil Moon),박미성(Mi Sung Park),서대석(Dae Seok Suh),추성민(Sung Min Cheu) 한국농식품정책학회 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.1

Implementation of the PLS (January 1, 2019) may have influences on the condition of domestic production such as the increase of pesticide costs and low suitability on MRL tests. In order to analyze the impact of increase in pesticide costs on price of agricultural products, we have conducted time series analysis on 34 products. The result shows that prices of red beans, spinach, radish, garlic and apple spiked after the increase in pesticide price and find new equilibrium at higher prices. In order to minimize potential damages to the farmers, the government need to intensify the guidance activities and extension service for farmers on suitable production practice and safety inspection. Subsequently, it can lead to stable production and supply of safe agricultural products. Also, it is necessary to strengthen the expertise of pesticide distributors and sellers, who are the main source of information for farmers. Advancement of pesticide management system, improvement of small packaging of pesticide, measuring container and pesticide labeling and development of general-purpose pesticides should be simultaneously conducted, too.

자유무역협정(FTA) 체결에 따른 농업부문 대응전략

문한필(Hanpil Moon),어명근(Myong-Keun Eor),박한울(Hanul Park),오승호(Seungho Oh),전익수(Iksu Jeon),전상곤(Sang-Gon Jeon) 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

2013 DDA협상과 향후 대응방안

문한필(Moon Hanpil),송주호,정대희,김수지 한국농촌경제연구원 2014 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

2013년 12월 7일 인도네시아 발리(Bali)에서는 오랫동안 답보상태였던 다자간 교역체계의 변화를 알리는 DDA 스몰패키지(smallpackage)가 타결되었다. 12월 3일부터 7일까지 닷새 동안 개최된 WTO 제9차 각료회의(MC9)에서 농업, 무역원활화, 개발 등의 10개 이슈로 구성된 발리패키지가 합의되었으며, 농업분야 이슈에는 1)TRQ관리 개선, 2)개도국의 식량안보 목적 공공비축 관련 평화조항, 3)수출경쟁 약속 이행 촉구, 4)일반서비스 확대 등이 포함되었다. ‘TRQ관리 개선’은 TRQ소진율이 일정 기준 이하일 경우 TRQ관리방식을 선착순 혹은 비조건적 허가방식으로 전환해야 한다는 내용이지만, 개도국에는 신축성을 부여하고 있어 개도국 지위를 유지하는 한 큰 영향은 없을 것으로 전망된다. ‘식량안보를 위한 공공비축 허용’은 개도국이 식량안보를 위해 공공비축을 할 경우 관리가격과 외부참조가격과의 차이를 AMS에 산입하지 않아도 된다는 제안이나, 우리나라는 이미 쌀 수매제도를 폐지하고 시가구매방식으로 변경하였기 때문에 이를 활용할 가능성은 없다. ‘수출경쟁’이슈는 홍콩각료선언(2005)에서 약속한 수출보조 철폐 필요성을 재확인하는 수준에서 법적 구속력이 없는 정치적 선언이 제시되었다. 또한 이번 발리패키지에는 WTO농업협정 부속서2의 허용보조 항목을 일부 추가하는 각료결정(MinisterialDecision)이 포함되었다. 이로써 기존의 일반서비스 항목에서 불명확했던 홍수 통제 및 가뭄관리, 토양보존 등 관련 항목들이 허용보조로 명확하게 분류될 수 있게 되었다. WTO각료 결정으로 채택된 무역원활화 협정문은 세관절차 관련 GATT규정의 명확화, 세관 간 정보교환을 포함한 세관협력 강화, 개도국의 무역원활화 조치 이행 지원 등의 내용을 담고 있다. 무역원활화 협정문 중에서 명시적으로 농업분야와 관련된 부분은 협정문 제5조(공정성, 비차별성, 투명성 증진을 위한 기타 조치)의 ‘수입국의 통제·검역 강화 조치 시 규율’과 제7조(물품의 반출 및 통관)의 ‘부패성 상품의 통관절차 원활화’이다. 국내 농업은 동시다발적인 FTA추진으로 시장개방이 빠르게 진행되고 있지만, 이번에 발리에서 합의된 WTO의 무역원활화 조치가 이행된다면 그 속도는 더욱 빨라질 수 있다. 정부가 적극적으로 추진하고 있는 농식품 수출확대도 수출대상국들의 무역원활화 이행 수준에 따라 그 성과가 달라질 수 있다. 이번에 합의된 발리패키지는 DDA협상이라는 전체 틀에서 볼 때 쟁점이 별로 없던 작은 분야이지만, 그동안 교착상태에 빠져 있었던 DDA협상을 진전시킬 수 있는 계기를 제공하고, 불안하게 여겨졌던 WTO다자무역체제에 대한 회원국들의 지지와 신뢰를 재확인했다는 점에서 긍정적으로 평가되는 분위기이다. 그러나 앞으로 전개될 DDA협상의 미래는 협상의 모든 요소에 녹아들어 있는 개도국 우대조치에 대한 선진국과 개도국의 견해 차이가 어떻게 좁혀질 수 있는지에 달려 있다. 개도국에 대한 특별대우를 대폭 늘린 DDA농업분야 협상에서 개도국이냐 선진국이냐의 차이는 UR협정과 비교해서 국내농업에 훨씬 더 큰 영향을 미치게 되어 있다. 따라서 우리로서는 개도국 지위의 유지가 가장 큰 협상목표일 수밖에 없다. 현실적으로 볼 때, 개도국 지위를 완전하게 누리기보다는, 국내농업에 미치는 피해가 작은 범위 내에서 자발적으로 선진국 의무사항에 참여하거나, 개도국 권리를 축소하는 식의 대안을 고려할 필요가 있다. In Bali, Indonesia, on 7 December 2013, the DDA small package was adopted, which signaled the change of a multilateral trading system that was at a standstill for a long time. At the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference, held for 5 days from 3 to 7 December, ministers adopted the “Bali Package,” which consisted of 10 issues including agriculture, trade facilitation, and development. The agricultural issue included 1) improvement in TRQ administration, 2) a peace clause on developing countries’ public stockholding for food security purposes, 3) a demand for keeping promises of export competition, and 4) expansion of general services. According to the improvement in TRQ administration, a country with its TRQ fill rate below a certain standard shall change TRQ administration methods to a first-come, first-served basis; or an unconditional license. However, developing countries can have flexibility, so Korea will not be affected much. Permission for public stockholding for food security purposes is a proposal that in public stockholding for food security, developing countries do not have to include the difference between the administered price and the external reference price in AMS. Nevertheless, Korea already abolished the rice purchase system, and changed it to the market price purchase method. Therefore, Korea will not use the permission. On the export competition issue, ministers presented a political declaration with no legal binding force, reaffirming that abolishing export subsidies that was promised in the 2005 Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration is needed. Also, the “Bali Package” included the Ministerial Decision that added “green box” items of Annex 2 of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. The decision clearly classified flood control, drought management, soil conservation, and related items that were unclear in previous general services items as “green box” items. An Agreement on Trade Facilitation, adopted by the WTO Ministerial Decision, includes clarifying GATT articles regarding the customs process, strengthening customs cooperation that includes information exchange among customs, and supporting the implementation of developing countries’ trade facilitation measures. In the Agreement, the parts explicitly related to agriculture are rules for importing countries’ enhanced controls or inspections of Article 5 (Other Measures to Enhance Impartiality, Non-discrimination and Transparency), and facilitation of perishable goods’ clearance processes of Article 7 (Release and Clearance of Goods). In Korean agriculture, market opening is rapidly proceeding due to simultaneous FTAs. However, if the WTO trade facilitation measure that was agreed in Bali is implemented, market opening can proceed faster. The result of agrifood export expansion the government is actively promoting depends on the level of trade facilitation of countries that import Korean agrifood. The “Bali Package” addresses a small area with few issues in the whole frame of DDA negotiations. Nonetheless, the Package is positively evaluated in that it can develop DDA negotiations that were at a standstill, and reaffirmed member nations’ support for and trust in the WTO’s multilateral trading system that was considered unstable. However, DDA negotiations depend on how differences can be reduced between developed and developing countries’ opinions on preferential treatment to developing countries in every element of negotiations. In DDA agricultural negotiations that largely increased special treatment and exceptional measures to developing countries, the status of a developing or developed country can affect Korean agriculture much more than in the UR Agreement. Therefore, our biggest goal in negotiations is securing the status of a developing country. Realistically, we should consider participating in the developed country’s duties voluntarily to the extent that their damage to Korean agriculture is small, or reducing the developing coun

과수 폐업지원의 성과분석 : 생산성, 규모화, 가격과 소득에 미친 영향

문한필(Hanpil Moon),이현근(Hyun-Keun Lee),최미라(Mira Choi),채상현(Sang-Hyen Chai) 한국농업경제학회 2020 農業經濟硏究 Vol.61 No.3

This study empirically analyzed the effect of the Farm-Closure Assistance(FCA) program on productivity, scale, price, and income of fruit farms for the purpose of objective evaluation of its policy performance.T o this end, panel data for the period of 2000-2018 is constructed for 8 items of fruit, and statistical significance of various proxy variables representing the FCA was tested using the random effect model. As results of the analysis, it is found that the FCA contributed to the improvement of the average productivity and scale of the target item, but the long-term effect on the market price or agricultural income of the item is evaluated to be negligible.I t is because the FCA maintains an institutional framework that induces short-term conversion of crops rather than exit of farming. Although there is an effect on short-term adjustment (reduction) of oversupplied items, it is difficult to expect long-term results such as restructuring, supply and demand stability, and competitiveness improvement.O n the other hand, the balloon effect, which is an indirect ripple effect due to the FCA, is statistically significant in terms of productivity and market price, but not so significant in terms of scale or income increase.

한·중 농산물 경쟁력 및 교역장벽 분석

문한필(Hanpil Moon),최세균(Sei-Kyun Choi),정대희(Dae Hee Chung),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

이 연구는 한·중 양국의 농산물 교역 현황을 살펴보고 양국간 농산물 교역에서 나타나는 경합 및 보완관계를 조사하였다. 이를 바탕으로 현재의 교역구조의 변화에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 양국 농산물의 생산비, 가격, 소비자인식, 동식물 검역장벽 등의 요인들을 종합적으로 검토하여 향후 교역구조의 변화를 전망하고 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. 한·중간 농산물 교역은 산업간무역(inter-industry trade)이 대부분을 차지하며, 산업내무역(inter-industry trade)이 가능한 품목은 가공농산품 중 일부 품목에 불과하다. 또한 한·중 농산물의 경쟁력 격차로 인해 중국 농산물의 우리나라 시장에 대한 수출특화가 뚜렷한 일방무역(one-way trade)이 압도적인 추세이다. 결과적으로 양국간 농산물 교역구조는 보완관계의 형성이 어렵고, 앞으로도 이러한 구조가 변화될 가능성은 크지 않다. 한·중간 농산물 교역구조와 관련된 제요인의 분석을 통해 도출된 몇 가지 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라 농업과 중국 농업은 농업생산구조의 변화 방향이 대체적으로 일치하지만 자원부존 조건과 성장단계상의 차이로 인해 경쟁력 격차가 존재한다. 이로 인해 한·중 간 농산물 교역은 산업 간 무역이 압도적이고 보완구조의 형성도 어렵다. 그러나 최근, 중국의 생산요소 가격은 지속적으로 상승하고 있으며, 이에 따라 양국 농산물의 생산비 격차와 가격차이가 다소 완화되고 있는 추세이다. 이는 장기적으로 국내시장에서 중국산 수입농산물에 대한 우리 농산물의 경쟁력 제고에 긍정적인 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 보다 근본적으로 중국의 비교우위에 의한 일방무역구조를 완화하기 위해서는 양국이 농업협력 차원에서 접근하여 양국의 농업 성장 격차를 반영할 수 있는 분업구조의 형성을 모색할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 설문조사 결과 중국산 농산물의 구매 경험이 많은 국내 식당경영주와 재중 한국인들의 중국산 농산물의 품질이나 식품안정성에 대한 인식이 과거에 비해 긍정적으로 변화한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 직접적인 소비경험이 부족함에도 중국산 농산물에 대해 부정적 인식이 강한 국내 일반 소비자들도 중국산 농산물의 소비 경험이 늘어날수록 부정적인 인식이 개선될 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 중국산 수입농산물의 대량 소비처인 식당경영주들이 중국산 식자재에 대해 비교적 높은 구매의사를 표시한 것은 향후 중국으로부터 농산물 수입이 지속적으로 확대될 수 있는 잠재력이 크다는 것을 시사한다. 셋째, 식물 병해충이나 가축 질병 등의 이유로 수입이 금지된 품목에 대한 수입금지 조치의 해제는 일반적으로 장기간의 협상 기간이 소요된다. 그러나 최근 수출국을 중심으로 위험평가에 소요되는 기간을 정하거나 공통의 기준을 제정하고자 하는 움직임이 나타나고 있어 적극적인 대응이 필요하다. 또한 검역 협상의 순서와 기간에 정치외교적 요인이 작용할 소지가 있기 때문에 어떤 돌발 변수에 의해 특정 품목이 수입될 가능성에도 미리 대비할 필요가 있다. 넷째, 중국은 동물 전염병 및 식물 병해충 무발생지역 육성정책을 강화하는 가운데 FTA 협상이나 동식물검역 관련 양자 협상을 통해 농산물 수입제한 조치를 해지시켜 나가고 있다. 중국이 우리나라와 양자 간 협상이나 FTA 협상에서 지역화 인정에 대한 규정 도입을 요구할 가능성이 높은 만큼 이에 대한 대책과 전략을 마련할 필요가 있다. Based on the analysis of agricultural trade pattern between Korea and China in the context of competition or complementary cooperation, this study synthesizes several factors affecting their agricultural trade structure, gives a comprehensive outlook on structural changes in agricultural trade between the two countries, and finds some implications for Korean agriculture. Agricultural trade between Korea and China shows a clear one-way trade from China to Korea and consists mainly of inter-industry trade. The products available to intra-industry trade are rare with the exception of several rocessed foods. This overwhelmingly unbalanced trade structure makes it difficult for the two countries to avoid severe competition and build a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship in agricultural sector, and is not expected to change in the near future. The implications from our analyses on relevant issues in agricultural trade structure between Korea and China are summarized as follows: First, agriculture in two countries has similar production structure and development course, but also has distinctive resource endowments and growth stages, which lead to the current overwhelming one-way trade and leave not much room for complementary relation in the near future. It is necessary to find constructive cooperation plans between the trading partners towards co-prosperity under a more liberalized trade in the future, focusing on the establishment of a specialization system reflecting their comparative advantages in agricultural production. Second, the survey results reflect the change of consumer perceptions about Chinese agricultural products toward a more positive direction. Korean residents in China and restaurant managers, who have experienced Chinese agricultural products more than general consumers, responded more positively about taste, food safety, and prices of Chinese agricultural products and showed higher willingness to pay than general consumers did. It suggests that general consumers are likely to become more positive about Chinese agricultural products if they have more consumption experience of these products, implying the potentiality of increasing Chinese agricultural imports when a bilateral FTA between the two countries goes into effect. Third, the removal of inspection and quarantine barriers usually takes quite a long time, because the import prohibiton of a product on account of plant disease, pest, and animal disease is lifted through a various risk assessment process having eight steps. Recently, however, exporting countries and international organizations are seeking to reduce the period of the risk assessment and to set a common standard. Bilateral quarantine negotiations are also affected by political and diplomatic situations and may accelerate the procedure. Fourth, the Chinese government has adopted several policies for promoting disease-free agricultural production regions. Also, China is trying to introduce the concept of regionalization in its FTA negotiations, persuading their trade partners. Therefore, the Korean government should prepare for a possible request of the Chinese government on the issues in the forthcoming Korea-China FTA negotiation.

축산물이력제에 대한 소비자들의 지불의향과 시장영향 분석

문한필(Hanpil Moon),안병일(Byeong-il Ahn) 한국농업경제학회 2021 農業經濟硏究 Vol.62 No.2

In this study, to analyze the effects of the traceability system on the livestock product markets, a simulation model, which is composed of supply and ex ante as well as ex post demand, is developed based on the results of a consumer survey. Survey results indicate that consumers are willing to pay an average of 17.76% higher price for traceable beef than for non-traceable beef. On the other hand, consumers are willing to pay an average of 15.01% higher price for the pork for which traceability is available. As a result of the simulation model analysis, it is estimated that the price of Korean beef would have been decreased by 3.53% and the sales volume would have been decreased by 8.4% unless there was the introduction of traceability system. In addition, it is analyzed that the price and sales volume of domestic pork would have decreased by 2.68% and 8.64% without the traceability system.

농식품 기업의 수출 결정 요인 및 전략 분석

조성주(CHO Sungju),문한필(MOON Hanpil),김상현(KIM Sanghyun),오새라(OH Saera) 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

친환경안전축산물직불제 사업의 성과 분석

노호영 ( Rho Ho Young ),문한필 ( Hanpil Moon ),김태영 ( Kim Taeyoung ) 한국축산경영학회,농업정책학회(구 한국축산경영학회) 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.4

This study aims to qualitatively evaluate the performance indicators of the eco-friendly safe livestock direct payment system and to quantitatively analyze the effect of direct payment performance on eco-friendly livestock certification volume using a multilevel mixed-effects linear model. The key results are as follows. First, the existing performance indicator of the eco-friendly safe livestock direct payment system is evaluated as a simple proportion of eco-friendly production. However, since the purpose of the direct payment system is to spread eco-friendly livestock and to preserve the environment, the recent annual growth rate of eco-friendly production and the proportion of participation of small farmers who are relatively vulnerable to pollution management can also be considered as performance indicators. Second, the effect of direct payments on volume of eco-friendly livestock products shows that the more recent and the amount of direct payments increases, the more eco-friendly livestock products certified volume increase, but the difference in the range of changes was significant for each type of livestock. In order to expand the eco-friendly safe livestock direct payment system, it is necessary to adjust the unit price of direct payment, support for small farmers to apply for direct payment, and accurately aggregate and provide relevant statistical data for accurate and detailed evaluation of the performance of direct payment system.

공간계량경제 방법론을 이용한 단수반응모형의 예측력에 관한 비교연구

이병훈 ( Byoung-hoon Lee ),문한필 ( Hanpil Moon ) 한국농업정책학회 2012 농업경영정책연구 Vol.39 No.3

The objective of this study is to develop rice response models to account for the impact of weather on rice yield and to project the rice yield level. In order to consider spatial autocorrelation effects, spatial econometrics approaches are used. The empirical results showed that rice yield level are strongly influenced by weather variables. The forecasting power of the rice yield models was improved by adding the spatial autocorrelation effect. Out of sample forecasting tests confirmed the spatial response models are more accurate than using general multiple regression models.

한·EU FTA 발효 이후 양돈, 낙농산업의 인식변화와 정책 방향에 관한 연구

남기천 ( Ki-chun Nam ),문한필 ( Hanpil Moon ),정민국 ( Min-kuk Jeong ) 한국농업정책학회 2014 농업경영정책연구 Vol.41 No.1

Before the Korea-EU FTA took effect in November 2010, the Korean government prepared 2-trillion-won measures (modernizing facilities and improving the distribution structure) for the domestic livestock industry where damage is expected to be concentrated. On July 1, 2013, the third year began since the FTA has been implemented. Accordingly, this study aimed to assess the Korea-EU FTA`s ripple effect on the pig farming and dairy industry, which accounted for the highest percentage of imports from the EU for the last 3 years; and to examine future policy issues. The statistical data are too small to measure the ripple effect quantitatively, because only 2 years have passed since the FTA took effect. Therefore, this study surveyed experts and producers, and tried to qualitatively evaluated the ripple effect and policies to counteract it. The study can be used as basic data to share pig farming and dairy experts` and farmers` awareness, and enhance pig farming and dairy policies` effectiveness.