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한국정부는 한·일간 독도영유권 논쟁에 대해 종지부를 찍었지만, 일본은 매년 방위백서를 발간하면서 독도영유권을 주장하고 있다. 종래 한국정부는 ‘조용한 외교’를 기조로 하여 강경책과 유화책을 병행하면서 일본과의 관계를 유지해 왔다. 그러면서 독도의 배타적 영유권에 대한 특별한 가시적 조치를 취하지는 않았다. 이명박 전 대통령은 광복절을 5일 앞둔 2012년 8월 10일 전격적으로 독도를 방문해 세계의 주목을 받았다. 그는 독도에서 ‘독도는 우리땅’임을 천명하여 독도의 실효적 지배 강화를 위한 강한 의지를 보였고, 국민들의 열렬한 지지를 받았다. 그러나 이러한 정치적 행위가 국익을 위해, 독도의 배타적 지배를 위해 절실한 것이었는가 하는 점을 중심으로 대통령의 독도방문을 바라보는 시각은 다양하다. 본고는 영남지방의 대표 신문인 ≪매일신문≫과 ≪영남일보≫를 대상으로 이명박 전 대통령의 독도방문에 대한 기사의 보도 유형을 분석했다. 이 과정에서 독도방문의 배경과 저의를 알아보고자 했다. 일왕사관 발언 등 쟁점별 보도 경향을 분석한 것은 언론의 취재와 기사 작성, 그리고 저널리즘의 사명감 등을 동시에 파악하려는 목적이었다. 양 신문은 지방신문이라는 동질성이 있는 반면에 각기 고유성과 정체성이 있었다. 독도 관련 기사를 정치적 성격으로 배열하고 보도하는 경향과 기사의 수에서 비슷한 양상을 보였다. 또한 대통령의 독도방문에 대해 환영일색의 보도를 유지하면서도 그 한계와 문제점을 지적하기도 했다. ≪매일신문≫보다 ≪영남일보≫가 상대적으로 중립과 부정적 입장을 보였다. ≪매일신문≫이 ≪영남일보≫에 비해 연합뉴스 기사가 적은 것은 기사의 재생산 문제와 관련이 있었다. 일왕사과발언과 위안부 등 역사인식의 기사 보도에서도 일방적인 긍정과 중립적 입장의 상대적 차별성이 있었으며, 영남지역민들의 반응을 보도하는 면에서도 이러한 점은 드러났다. 양 신문은 지방신문으로서 가지는 공통된 입장과 신문사 고유의 정체성을 드러내면서도 대구경북지역민들에게 정보를 제공하면서 언론의 역할을 다하고자 했다. The Korean Government put a full stop to dispute between Korea and Japan about Dokdo ownership, but Japan is declaring sovereignty over Dokdo in an defensive white paper that published annually. The Korean government that is forming a quiet diplomacy the keynote, has been maintained friendly relations with Japan by combining a hard-line policy with a appeasement policy. Nevertheless, the government don’t take a visible measure for assert monopolistic ownership of Dokdo. The former president Lee came into the spotlight by making a surprise visit to Dokdo on five days before National Liberation Day, August 10. 2012. He showed a very strong intention to tighten a hold on Dokdo by clarifying that Dokdo is our land. His action was supported by the majority Korean people. But there are various arguments on visiting Dokdo of the former president when discussing whether Lee’s political act is necessary for the national interest and monopolistic control on Dokdo or not. This thesis is to analyze news patterns about visiting Dokdo of Lee, focusing on ≪Maeil Shinmun≫ and ≪Yeongnam Ilbo≫, two representative newspapers in Yeongnam districts. In the process of analyzing, I investigated the background and real intention of visiting Dokdo of Lee. The purpose to analyzing the report tendency according to issues is to grasp the process of collecting news materials and writing articles, and the sense of duty of journalism. Two newspapers have held the homogeneity of local newspapers and each a characteristic and an identity. They have a startling likeness to one another, in the way that the related articles to Dokdo arranged and reported by news of political qualities and that the number of the articles is also resembled each other. They gave a welcoming report of the visiting Dokdo of Lee but pointed out the limits and the problems. The report attitude of ≪Yeongnam Ilbo≫ took relatively more neutral or negative than ≪Maeil Shinmun≫. The reason that the articles of Yonhap News in ≪Maeil Shinmun≫ were less than ≪Yeongnam Ilbo≫ had relevance to reproduction of the articles. In the report about history awareness like the speech of apology of from the king of Japan and comfort women, two newspapers held differing views in a regard of an unilateral affirmation and a neutral attitude, and they reported differently about the response of Yeongnam locals. They exposed the common position as local newspapers and the same inherent identities, and performed the role as media that transmitted an information to Daegugyeongbuk local people at the same time.
Hansen and Singleton (1982, 1983) estimated power utility function parameters by GMM using the US data. We apply the similar method to Korean stock(and CD) returns and consumption growth. In addition, we calculated the required value of γ that is needed to hold in optimization as 19.8. It’s excessive level of risk-aversion needed to match data. We also try Hansen and Singleton (1983)’s alternative method of 2SLS to the estimation. Estimation results shows that risk-free return and consumption growth in consumption CAPM are all forecastable, in contrast to Hansen and Singleton(1983). This forecastability implies the significance of risk-aversion and intertemporal substitution parameter. We tested the instruments’ weakness, and validity to solve the endogeneity of consumption growth.
We feel anxious since the future is uncertain. Thus, a capacity to predict the future is important not only in police intelligence but also in business, government organization, and all other areas. Once a precise information is extracted, it will be plausible to deal with a variety of circumstances and further transform the future into a positive direction. This forecasting should be based on scientific imagination, not on fortune-telling or vague speculation. For this, this paper introduced three methods for forecasting such as inter-subjective approach, general theoretical approach, and past-case analysis. As shown in the example, we can make a multi-dimensional prediction only by using various viewpoints and approaches, and the point is that the analyst must recognize the issue correctly so that the next procedures coast along. It is needless to say we can never make a perfect prediction even through those forecasting methods. Nevertheless, taking advantage of those methods is still meaningful in that the purpose of prediction is in narrowing the gap between estimated results and actual ones. The author suggested how to improve the forecasting capacity of police intelligence in the last chapter. First of all, more efforts need to be made to elevate the quality of analysts because intelligence analysis is conducted not by computer programs but by humans. For this, more experts have to be hired and trained systematically. One thing the analysts must keep in mind is the fact that intelligence situations, the object of police intelligence, are inevitably interconnected with government policies. For instance, since dissatisfaction with government policies is always latent within a mass resistance, the analysts must understand the core and process of government policies and proposed bills and keep trying to figure out plausible problems in the future. And since intelligence analysis itself could easily be a boring process to extract a valuable intelligence out of meaningless sources, strong tenacity and endless curiosity are the most critical qualities required to the analysts. Finally, they should pick up a habit to create a database by collecting relevant documents and making a comprehensive appraisal of issues. As shown in the introduction, this paper dealt with the first and basic steps of forecasting methods. It was no wonder because few systematic attempt has been made so far due to the secrecy and sensitivity of intelligence. However, the author expects that more decent research on the area of intelligence analysis is performed in the future, and through the amassed research, the area of forecasting will be grown.
By using VAR models, we relate five endogenous variables by industry sector to each other: Producer Price Index(P), wage(W), GDP(Y), Import Price Index(MP), employment(L). We use monthly data covering the period January 1970 through December 1998. The impulse response function describes the response of the employment(L) variable over time to shocks in MP and Y. It shows the response of employment variables by industry sector to a one-unit shock in Y i.e., a one-period increase in υYt.. Over the next 6 or 7 months employment by machinary industry rises, but there is little effect on employment by food industry. Another way of characterizing the dynamic behavior of the model is through a valiance decomposition. This breaks down the variance of the forecast error for employment(L) variable into components that can be attributed to each of the endogenous variables. The greater the forecast horizon, the larger the proportion of forecast variance of employment variables that will be due to price variables(MP, P). Finally, we try a conditional forecast, in which values for one or more explanatory variables are not known, so that forecasts must be used to produce forecasts of employment variables.