An Algorithm for Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Improved SARIMA and GA

Xianglong Luo,Liyao Niu,Shengrui Zhang 대한토목학회 2018 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.22 No.10

The traffic flow prediction plays a key role in modern Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Although great achievements have been made in traffic flow prediction, it is still a challenge to improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the operation time simultaneously. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid prediction methodology combined with improved seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ISARIMA) model and multi-input autoregressive (AR) model by genetic algorithm (GA) optimization. Since traffic flow data has strong spatio-temporal correlation with neighboring stations, GA is used to select those stations which are highly correlated with the prediction station. The ISARIMA model is used to predict the traffic flow in test station at first. A multiinput AR model with traffic flow data in optimal selected stations is built to predict the traffic flow in test station as well. The final prediction result can be gained by combining with the results of ISARIMA and multi-input AR model. The test results from traffic data provided by TDRL at UMD Data Center demonstrate that proposed algorithm has almost the same prediction accuracy with artificial neural networks (ANNS). However, its operation time is almost the same with SARIMA model. It is proved to be an effective method to perform traffic flow prediction.

심층인공신경망(DNN)과 다각도 상황 정보 기반의 서울시 도로 링크별 교통 혼잡도 예측

김동현,황기연,윤영 한국ITS학회 2019 한국ITS학회논문지 Vol.18 No.4

Various studies have been conducted to solve traffic congestions in many metropolitan cities through accurate traffic flow prediction. Most studies are based on the assumption that past traffic patterns repeat in the future. Models based on such an assumption fall short in case irregular traffic patterns abruptly occur. Instead, the approaches such as predicting traffic pattern through big data analytics and artificial intelligence have emerged. Specifically, deep learning algorithms such as RNN have been prevalent for tackling the problems of predicting temporal traffic flow as a time series. However, these algorithms do not perform well in terms of long-term prediction. In this paper, we take into account various external factors that may affect the traffic flows. We model the correlation between the multi-dimensional context information with temporal traffic speed pattern using deep neural networks. Our model trained with the traffic data from TOPIS system by Seoul, Korea can predict traffic speed on a specific date with the accuracy reaching nearly 90%. We expect that the accuracy can be improved further by taking into account additional factors such as accidents and constructions for the prediction. 여러 대도시에서 교통 혼잡 문제를 해결하기 위해 정확한 교통 흐름을 예측하는 다양한 연구가 진행되었다. 대부분의 연구가 과거의 교통 흐름 패턴이 미래에도 반복될 것이라는 가정하에 예측 모델을 개발하였으나 교통사고 등과 같은 뜻하지 않은 비반복적 교통 패턴을 예측하는 데에는 신뢰성이 낮게 나타났다. 이런 문제를 해결하기 위한 대안으로 지능형 교통 시스템(ITS)을 통해 얻은 빅데이터와 인공지능을 접목한 교통 흐름 예측 연구가 진행되어 왔다. 하지만 시계열 분석에 일반적으로 사용되는 알고리즘인 RNN의 경우, 단기 예측에 최적화되어장기 예측 정확도가 낮다는 단점을 가지고 있다. 이런 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 논문에서는기온과 강수량 등의 기상 정보 외에도 각종 외부 요인들을 고려하여 장기적 시점에서 교통 혼잡도를 예측하는 '심층 인공 신경망 모델'을 제안하였다. TOPIS 자료를 이용한 사례 연구 결과서울시 주요 도로 링크의 교통 혼잡도를 90%에 가까운 정확도로 예측이 가능하였다. 추후 교통사고나 도로 공사와 같은 도로에 영향을 미치는 이벤트 데이터를 추가로 확보할 수 있다면정확도는 더욱 높아질 것으로 예상된다.

Short-Term Traffic Speed Prediction for Multiple Road Segments

배범준,Lee D. Han 대한토목학회 2023 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.27 No.7

Short-term traffic prediction has been an essential part of real-time applications in modern transportation systems for the last few decades. Despite the recent progress in the voluminous models and data sources, many existing studies have focused on prediction for either a single or a few locations. In addition, the spatiotemporal dependency in the traffic data was narrowly accounted for. Therefore, this paper finds a new short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm that can efficiently cope with the complexity and immensity of the prediction process derived from the network size and amount of data in order to provide accurate predictions in real time. This algorithm consists of two modules: (a) principal component analysis (PCA) for data dimensionality reduction and feature selection, and (b) multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA) for multivariate time-series data prediction. A large amount of traffic data is efficiently compressed by PCA with high accuracy, then used as an input in the multivariate time-series analysis. The algorithm was compared with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to predict traffic speeds five minutes ahead for a 21.3-mile-long highway segment, using the traffic detector data, and for 451-mile-long segment, using probe-based speed data in Tennessee. The tested algorithm is found to provide accurate predictions with a computation time of less than one second without training. Furthermore, the algorithm shows a better prediction performance under congested flow conditions, compared to VAR. This indicates that the tested algorithm is suitable for real-time prediction and scalable for a large network analysis.

Non-stationary VBR 트래픽을 위한 동적 데이타 크기 예측 알고리즘

강성주(Sungjoo Kang),원유집(Youjip Won),성병찬(Byeongchan Seong) 한국정보과학회 2007 정보과학회논문지 : 정보통신 Vol.34 No.3

본 논문에서는 VBR(Variable-Bit-Rate) 트래픽의 비선형적이고 버스티한 특성을 모델화 한 GOP ARIMA(ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) 모델을 칼만 필터 알고리즘을 이용하여 실시간으로 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 칼만 필터를 이용한 예측 기법은 GOP ARIMA의 상태공간 모델링 과정과 향후 N초 간의 트래픽을 예측하는 과정으로 구성된다. 실험을 위해 GOP의 크기가 각각 15인 세 가지 종류의 MPEG VBR 트래픽(뉴스, 드라마, 스포츠)을 제작하였고, 칼만 필터를 이용한 세 가지 종류의 트래픽의 예측 결과를 선형 예측법과 이중 지수 평활법을 이용해 예측한 결과와 비교해 예측 성능이 상대적으로 우수함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 예측값에 신뢰 구간을 설정하는 신뢰 구간 분석법을 통해 트래픽 관점에서 장면 변화를 예측하는 방법을 제시하였다. 본 논문의 칼만 필터 기반의 예측 알고리즘은 MPEG 기반 VBR 트래픽을 비롯한 기타 인터넷 트래픽을 실시간으로 예측하는 방법과 이를 이용해 인터넷 서버의 설계 및 자원 할당 정책 등을 위한 트래픽 엔지니어링 연구에 기여할 수 있을 것이다. In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.

Anomaly Detection of Network Traffic Based on Prediction and Self-Adaptive Threshold

Haiyan Wang 보안공학연구지원센터 2015 International Journal of Future Generation Communi Vol.8 No.6

Security problems with network are significant, such as network failures and malicious attacks. Monitoring network traffic and detect anomalies of network traffic is one of the effective manner to ensure network security. In this paper, we propose a hybrid method for network traffic prediction and anomaly detection. Specifically, the original network traffic data is decomposed into high-frequency components and low-frequency components. Then, non-linear model Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) model and ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model are employed respectively for prediction. After combining the prediction, a self-adaptive threshold method based on Central Limit Theorem (LCT) is introduced for anomaly detection. Moreover, our extensive experiments evaluate the efficiency of proposed method.

A Novel Method for Predicting Network Traffic Based on Maximum Entropy Principle

Jingyu Wang,Yang Zhao 보안공학연구지원센터 2016 International Journal of Future Generation Communi Vol.9 No.1

The network of application service is becoming more and more increasingly complex, with the development of network communication technology, which puts forward higher requirements on network behavior characteristics, the network management and traffic control, therefore, network traffic analysis and prediction is more and more important significance. This paper presents a novel network traffic prediction model, which is based on maximum entropy algorithm. The simulation results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional methods, and improves the prediction accuracy of network traffic.

Multivariate Congestion Prediction using Stacked LSTM Autoencoder based Bidirectional LSTM Model

Vijayalakshmi B,Thanga Ramya S,Ramar K 한국인터넷정보학회 2023 KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Syst Vol.17 No.1

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

시공간 특성 기반 LSTM-MLP 모델을 활용한 교통사고 위험도 예측 연구

정현진,양지웅,홍정희 한국융합신호처리학회 2023 융합신호처리학회 논문지 (JISPS) Vol.24 No.4

Rapid urbanization and advancements in technology have led to a surge in the number of automobiles, resulting in frequent traffic accidents, and consequently, an increase in human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, there is a need for technology that can predict the risk of traffic accidents to prevent them and minimize the damage caused by them. Traffic accidents occur due to various factors including traffic congestion, the traffic environment, and road conditions. These factors give traffic accidents spatiotemporal characteristics. This paper analyzes traffic accident data to understand the main characteristics of traffic accidents and reconstructs the data in a time series format. Additionally, an LSTM-MLP based model that excellently captures spatiotemporal characteristics was developed and utilized for traffic accident prediction. Experiments have proven that the proposed model is more rational and accurate in predicting the risk of traffic accidents compared to existing models. The traffic accident risk prediction model suggested in this paper can be applied to systems capable of real-time monitoring of road conditions and environments, such as navigation systems. It is expected to enhance the safety of road users and minimize the social costs associated with traffic accident

LSTM 및 CNN-LSTM 신경망을 활용한 도시부 간선도로 속도 예측

박부기,배상훈,정보경 한국ITS학회 2021 한국ITS학회논문지 Vol.20 No.1

교통혼잡을 완화하기 위한 방안 중 하나로 도로 이용자에게 교통상황 예측정보를 제공함으 로써 교통량을 분산 시켜 도로 이용 효율을 증대시키는 방법이 있다. 이를 위해서는 신뢰성이 보장되고 정량적인 실시간 교통 속도 예측이 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 상황별 교통속도 분 석을 기반으로 이력 속도 데이터와 이력 속도 외의 교통류에 상관관계가 있는 데이터를 LSTM 입력 데이터로 활용하였다. 정상 교통류 상황에 대응하여 속도를 예측하는 LSTM 모델과 유고 상황에 대응하여 속도를 예측하는 CNN-LSTM 모델을 개발하여 유고발생 후 1시간까지 5분 단위로 교통속도 예측을 시도하였다. 모델의 검증은 테스트 데이터를 통하여 교통상황별 예측 성능을 분석하였다. 그 결과 정상 교통류에서는 평균 7.43km/h, 유고상황에서는 7.66km/h의 오 차율로 각각 예측되었다. One of the methods to alleviate traffic congestion is to increase the efficiency of the roads by providing traffic condition information on road user and distributing the traffic. For this, reliability must be guaranteed, and quantitative real-time traffic speed prediction is essential. In this study, and based on analysis of traffic speed related to traffic conditions, historical data correlated with traffic flow were used as input. We developed an LSTM model that predicts speed in response to normal traffic conditions, along with a CNN-LSTM model that predicts speed in response to incidents. Through these models, we try to predict traffic speeds during the hour in five-minute intervals. As a result, predictions had an average error rate of 7.43km/h for normal traffic flows, and an error rate of 7.66km/h for traffic incident flows when there was an incident.

Traffic Flow Prediction with Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks

Huijuan Ding,노기섭 한국인터넷방송통신학회 2023 International journal of advanced smart convergenc Vol.12 No.4

Traffic flow prediction is of great significance in urban planning and traffic management. As the complexity of urban traffic increases, existing prediction methods still face challenges, especially for the fusion of spatiotemporal information and the capture of long-term dependencies. This study aims to use the fusion model of graph neural network to solve the spatio-temporal information fusion problem in traffic flow prediction. We propose a new deep learning model Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN). We use GCN module, TCN module and LSTM module alternately to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. GCN and multi-core TCN capture the temporal and spatial dependencies of traffic flow respectively, and LSTM connects multiple fusion modules to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. In the experimental evaluation of real traffic flow data, STFGNN showed better performance than other models.