The impacts of demand and supply shocks in the dry bulk shipping market

Park Sunghwa,김현석,Kwon Janghan 한국해운물류학회 2023 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.39 No.1

The freight rate is a representative variable in the shipping market and is characterized by a cyclical relationship. Even though downturns in the shipping market, such as the shipping industry recession in the 1980s, the global financial crisis in 2008 and COVID-19 crisis in 2020, recur, few studies have analyzed the dynamic relationship between supply and demand in terms of its effect on freight rates. Thus, this study classifies the factors affecting fluctuations in dry cargo freight rates into demand, supply, and freight rate specific demand factors, which play the most important role in managing risk in the shipping market. Based on the recursive structural vector autoregressive (recursive SVAR) model, we analyze the historical contributions of the effects of each factor across different time periods. Two main findings are summarized as follows: first, we identify the dynamic relationship between factors affecting BDI in the shipping market, and reveal that the magnitude and direction of factors are different. Second, we verify that in an extreme situation in which freight rates exceed the normal range, the market is overheated, and freight rates are therefore determined by the freight rate specific demand of market participants rather than by the actual supply and demand

江湖之英雄乎中华之偶像乎

金明石(Kim Myung-Suk) 동북아시아문화학회 2007 동북아시아문화학회 국제학술대회 발표자료집 Vol.- No.-

Huo Yuanjia"s posthumous tale was dramatized by Bruce Lee at 1972(《The Fist of Fury》), and by Jet Li at 1994 (《The Fist of Legend》) and the lifetime story was dramatized by Jet Li at 2006(《The Feariess》). The framework of this film was made up of recursive structure; from the hero"s separation to the hero"s return. The hero"s itinerary, as indicated by Buddhist trasmigrationism, can be considered as the recursive structure of personal life. The war narrative is useful in transferring the horror and hurt suffered by populace to China, the problem in the specific geographic category. Huo Yuaniia accomplishes the true collective identity(nationalism) by overcoming the finitude of death and accomplishing personal eternal life. Even though Huo Yuanjia lost the "small family" but he attained the "superfamily" which is linking person, family to nation. Hero made the audience meditate and reflect on the nation state by abandoning the romance with blind woman and accepting death with tragic beauty. The character of the beggar and mob representing Chinese people in this film, as Ah Q in Luxun"s novel, ironically, was similar to the standpoint of colonialism historical science made by Japanese imperialists to rationalize and justify the colonial administration. There was no fraternity transcending nationalism or identity consciousness in Tianjin of the day, however, the director Ronnie Yu distorted the historcity of premodern society by distorting scamps to mass, the mass to nation. Huo Yuanjia had "nation state" in heart all the time, right in Tianjin whichi was one of the concession as Shanghai, in a way it was as good as under the reign of imperialism. China is a multiracial nation mixed up with Hua and Yi as always, therefore, the imagination of nation state through pursueing national identity-sinocentrism- inevitably begin to show its limit. It is only pursued by another totalitarian project of communist dictatorship. Besides, Huo Yuanjia identify "the I or we" through excluding and identifying "the other", this process involves a risk that can suppress the discrimination and exclusion in the nation state itself, and can discriminate the members each other by specific social category, that is to say, through the "guanxi(關係)" or faction. It is audiences" duty to judge whether the heromaking project of this film was due to the mass" es limit seeking hero, or due to the Chinese undeniable sinocentrism.

<태원지(太原誌)>의 일주(一周) 상상력과 다원(多元)의 세계관―고소설의 사유 실험에 대한 단상을 더하여―

김수연 고려대학교 민족문화연구원 2022 民族文化硏究 Vol.95 No.-

In the novel <Taewonji> in the late Joseon Dynasty, Confucian and non-Confucian thought work mutually. Although Confucianism’s concept of ‘destiny [天命]’ penetrates the superficial narrative, the concrete world conception is based on the experience of voyages in the West, the Daegu theory of the ancient Chuyeon, and the archaeological astronomy mathematics of the Qing dynasty, which has been focused on intellectual experiments since the 18th century, are getting involved. The acceptance of this intellectual movement is realized through narrative composition based on a sense of number, geography imagination, imagination around the world, and a multi-dimensional worldview. <Taewonji> is active in the use of numbers to the extent that it is said to be a novel made up of numbers. It embodies figures and imaginary geography with numerical information and images. This provides realistic impressions and logical realism to fictional characters and virtual worlds. <Taewonji> is a scene of natural displacement from the East Sea to the West Sea during the voyage, and by narrating the imagination of the circumnavigation, it reveals the mathematical logic and empirical worldview of round earth, and recognizes fictional works logically and empirically. However, the circle of <Taewonji> is not a simple physical cycle, but is connected to a symmetrical plural world that moves to the same space with a different order and character. Taewon, which arrived in this way, is a symmetrical plural world of Jungwon, and has the character of ‘the beginning of the Jungwon’, which is historically and civilly located in ancient times. <Taewonji> reflects the competitive knowledge field in the late Joseon Dynasty. However, the attitude of narrative thought experiments that do not passively accept the intellectual movement is also found. <Taewonji> provides an opportunity and experience to reexamine the cultural framework of the late Joseon Dynasty, which was taken for granted, by narratively adapting the thought experiment that causes tension in the existing cultural framework. It also shows the circumstances in which novels in the late Joseon Dynasty participated in thought experiments with an open attitude to the dynamic intellectual environment. A novel cannot be completely free from the cultural framework of the times, but it also does not unilaterally accept the existing cultural culture. The novel participates in the field where the cultural framework of its time is reconstructed, and can serve as a place of experimentation to contemplate new thoughts through highly scalable popular writing. 조선후기 소설 <태원지> 속 유교적 사유는 비-유교적 사유와 상호구성적으로 작동한다. 유교의 ‘천명(天命)’ 개념이 표층 서사를 관통하지만, 구체적 세계 구상의 바탕에는 18세기 이후 조선 지식인의 사유 실험에서 주목한 서양의 항해 일주, 고대의 대구주설, 청나라의 고증학적 천문수학 등이 관여하고 있는 것이다. 이러한 지적 운동의 수용은 숫자 감각에 의한 서사 구성과 지리 상상, 일주의 상상력과 다원의 세계관으로 구현된다. <태원지>의 숫자 감각은 인물과 지리의 구체화에 기여하여 허구적 캐릭터와 가상세계에 논리적 실감성(實感性)을 제공한다. 일주의 상상력은 항해 도중 동해→서해의 전위(轉位)로 장면화되며 지구지원(地球地圓)에 대한 이론적⋅경험적 흔적을 드러냄으로써, 허구 작품을 논리적 세계로 인식하게 한다. <태원지>의 일주는 동일 공간으로의 회귀를 거부하고 질적으로 다른 유사 공간으로의 이동을 상상한다. 그렇게 하여 도착한 태원은 중원의 대칭적 다원 세계이자, 역사적⋅문명적 신화 시대로 재귀한 ‘태초의 중원’이라는 성격을 지닌다. <태원지>에는 조선후기에 경합하는 ‘지식장’의 모습이 반영되어 있다. 동시에 지적 운동을 수동적으로 수용하지 않으려는 서사적 사유 실험의 태도도 발견된다. 이것은 조선후기 문화틀에 대한 재검토의 기회와 계기를 제공하고, 소설이 역동하는 지적 환경에 열린 자세로 동참했던 정황을 보여준다. 소설은 시대의 문화틀에서 완전히 자유로울 수 없지만, 기존의 문화적 교양에 일방적으로 압도당하지 않는다. 소설은 자기 시대의 문화틀이 재구성되는 현장에 참여하며, 확장성이 높은 대중적 글쓰기를 통해 새로운 사유를 고민하는 실험장으로 역할 할 수 있는 것이다.