Impact of FTA on Trade in ASEAN and Australia Using Customs Level Data

Shandre M. Thangavelu,Dionisius Narjoko,Shujiro Urata 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2021 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.36 No.3

This study examines the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Australia- New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) on Australian trade with a particular focus on imports from ASEAN member countries to Australia. We examine the AANZFTA’s utilization by ten ASEAN countries at the six-digit trade classification level from 2012 to 2016 using Australian customs data. We implement Ando and Urata’s (2018) and Hayakawa et al.’s (2014) framework of free trade agreement (FTA) utilization based on preferential tariff margins. We also account for overlapping FTAs that are likely to impact the AANZFTA’s utilization. The results indicate that preferential tariff margins positively impact FTA utilization. However, the results also indicate that the AANZFTA’s utilization rate across ASEAN countries is low relative to Australia’s bilateral FTAs with Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. We also find evidence that co-sharing rules of origin positively impact FTA utilization.

Mega-FTAs and the WTO: Competing or Complementary?

Shujiro Urata 한국국제경제학회 2016 International Economic Journal Vol.30 No.2

Mega-FTAs involving many countries and encompassing bilateral and mini-lateral FTAs have begun to be negotiated, while the Doha Round of multinational trade negotiations under the WTO have been at a stalemate. Mega-FTAs, which are discriminatory, and the WTO, which is non-discriminatory, are not consistent, thereby leading to a view that they are competing. This article argues that mega-FTAs and the WTO can be complementary, as mega-FTAs could facilitate negotiations with a smaller number of negotiating members. It further stresses the importance of extending mega-FTAs to a global level by merging with other mega-FTAs and by accepting new members.

Changing Competitiveness of Japanese Manufacturing Sector and Firms in Regional Production Networks in Asia

Shujiro URATA 한국경제연구원 2013 한국경제연구원 세미나자료 Vol.13 No.18

Battling Protectionism in the Global Financial Crisis

Shujiro Urata 동아시아재단 2009 Global Asia Vol.4 No.3

Trade Imbalances and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment: Bilateral and Triangular Issues

( Masahiro Kawai ),( Shujiro Urata ) 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 1996 East and West Studies Series Vol.39 No.-

Do Japan’s Free Trade Agreements Increase Its International Trade?

Mitsuyo Ando,Shujiro Urata,Kenta Yamanouchi 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2022 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.37 No.1

This study analyzes the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade, focusing on Japan’s FTAs. In particular, we examined both static and dynamic effects at the aggregated and disaggregated levels, using two datasets between 1995 and 2016 for Japanese trade only and world trade. For the static analysis, we investigated the overall impacts and the effect of individual FTAs. Regarding dynamic analysis, we considered the time since their enactment. Our results indicate that the impacts are heterogeneous among Japan’s FTAs and products, with a trade creation effect for some FTA partners. Moreover, our findings reveal that the trade creation effect is probably overestimated when trade between the third countries is not considered. We also found a positive dynamic effect for some products. Such a dynamic effect may emerge due to a longer time for firms to understand FTAs and learn their use and the gradual tariff reduction for some products.

The Impacts of East Asia FTA: A CGE Model Simulation Study

Mitsuyo Ando,Shujiro Urata 대외경제정책연구원 2007 East Asian Economic Review Vol.11 No.2

In light of the on-going discussions of the possibility of an East Asia FTA, this paper attempts to estimate the impacts of an East Asia FTA using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Although most previous simulation studies on the impacts of FTAs focus only on the liberalization of trade in goods, our paper attempts to take into account other aspects of FTAs such as capital accumulation and trade and investment facilitation measures. Our simulation analysis finds that an ASEAN+3 FTA is the most desirable FTA of eight hypothetical FTAs in East Asia to all member countries at the macro level. At the same time, our results demonstrate the significant impacts of capital accumulation and various trade and investment facilitation and coordination programs. At the sectoral level, many sectors gain in terms of output and trade. Although some sectors in certain countries indeed lose in terms of output as a result of an ASEAN+3, most of them experience increases in both exports and imports, even if output declines. These results indicate that the larger the coverage in terms of membership as well as contents such as trade and FDI liberalization and facilitation, and economic cooperation is, the greater benefits can be accrued to the members.

The Political Economy of the Proliferation of FTAs

Yung Chul Park,Shujiro Urata,Inkyo Cheong 한국경제연구원 2005 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.2005-13 No.-

There has been a concerted movement toward free trade in East Asia since the early 1990s. Trade liberalization in individual countries as well as the regional movement for economic integration has contributed to a large increase in intra-regional trade in East Asia. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causes and possible consequences of the proliferation of bilateral FTAs in East Asia. Throughout the paper, our discussion will be directed to finding clues on whether the bilateral FTAs in Asia that are completed or under discussion could be building or stumbling blocks for regional as well as global economic integration. East Asian countries have strengthened bilateral and regional economic relations through trade and investment, although the region does not have a region-wide trading arrangement. However, since the Asian financial crisis, East Asian countries have shown concern towards establishing FTAs. All East Asian countries have been involved into regionalism now, and FTAs have been one of major issues for the ASEAN+3 Leaders' meeting. The progress for an East Asian FTA has been very slow, but the discussion for a region-wide FTA in East Asia has been facilitated by establishing the ‘Network of East Asian Think-Tanks (NEAT)’ in 2003. NEAT, which is supported by the ASEAN+3, is to continue dialogue and deepen mutual understanding among the members. Meetings were held in 2003 and 2004 to discuss issues related to forming an East Asian Community, of which an East Asia FTA is an important component. Generally, it can be said that FTAs with wide coverage of tariff elimination and simple (less stringent) ROO will bring most of economic gains, which are expected from a conclusion of a FTA. Although FTAs have wide ranges of measures for increasing market access in addition to tariff elimination, this report first analyzes the coverage of tariff elimination only, because of the lack of reliable data on other liberalization measures such as improvement in non-tariff barriers. According the analysis result, NAFTA, AZCERTA (FTA between Australia and New Zealand), AFTA and China-ASEAN FTA have broad coverage of tariff elimination. However, other FTAs such as Japan-Singapore FTA and Chile-Korea FTA allow wide ranges of exception for trade liberalization. Most of the excepted goods are agricultural products, which are most sensitive in Japan and Korea, although the coverage of market access in those countries may increase with the conclusion of more FTAs. Following the analysis of coverage of tariff liberalization, the report evaluates the stringency of ROO. Trade deflection, which can occur in FTAs, distorts the trade pattern; ROOs could curb trade deflection. However, the compliance of stringent and complex ROOs increases costs for production and trade. Therefore those countries joining in FTAs would be better off by simplifying and harmonizing preferential ROOs. EU and US introduced stringent ROOs in their RTAs in 1990s. East Asian countries have heavily depended on the frameworks of existing FTAs, especially that of NAFTA. ROOs in East Asian FTAs are similar to those of Western FTAs in terms of CTC, RVC ratio, Cumulation, and De Minimis. However, AFTA and the China-ASEAN FTA have a very simple and uniform format for the ROO. This is simpler than the WTO recommends, and cannot be found in other RTAs. AFTA and the China-ASEAN FTA do not need CTC criterion since they require only one criterion of 40% RVC ratio. This report tries to assess the market access in major FTAs using coverage of tariff elimination and stringency of ROO. Our tentative assessment result for market access in FTAs. It can be said that ANZCERTA and China-ASEAN FTA have high scores (Group I) in market access with wide coverage of tariff elimination and simple ROO. NAFTA can be evaluated to be inferior to FTAs in Group I in terms of market access, since it specifies complex and stringent ROO. Three FTAs such as Japan-Singapore EP