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TFNM, ANN, ANFIS를 이용한 국가지하수관측망 지하수위 변동 예측 비교 연구
윤필선,윤희성,김용철,김규범,Yoon, Pilsun,Yoon, Heesung,Kim, Yongcheol,Kim, Gyoo-Bum 한국지하수토양환경학회 2014 지하수토양환경 Vol.19 No.3
It is important to predict the groundwater level fluctuation for effective management of groundwater monitoring system and groundwater resources. In the present study, three different time series models for the prediction of groundwater level in response to rainfall were built, those are transfer function noise model (TFNM), artificial neural network (ANN), and adaptive neuro fuzzy interference system (ANFIS). The models were applied to time series data of Boen, Cheolsan, and Hongcheon stations in National Groundwater Monitoring Network. The result shows that the model performance of ANN and ANFIS was higher than that of TFNM for the present case study. As lead time increased, prediction accuracy decreased with underestimation of peak values. The performance of the three models at Boen station was worst especially for TFNM, where the correlation between rainfall and groundwater data was lowest and the groundwater extraction is expected on account of agricultural activities. The sensitivity analysis for the input structure showed that ANFIS was most sensitive to input data combinations. It is expected that the time series model approach and results of the present study are meaningful and useful for the effective management of monitoring stations and groundwater resources.
지하수위 시계열 예측 모델 기반 하천수위 영향 필터링 기법 개발 및 지하수 함양률 산정 연구
윤희성,박은규,김규범,하규철,윤필선,이승현,Yoon, Heesung,Park, Eungyu,Kim, Gyoo-Bum,Ha, Kyoochul,Yoon, Pilsun,Lee, Seung-Hyun 한국지하수토양환경학회 2015 지하수토양환경 Vol.20 No.3
A method to filter out the effect of river stage fluctuations on groundwater level was designed using an artificial neural network-based time series model of groundwater level prediction. The designed method was applied to daily groundwater level data near the Gangjeong-Koryeong Barrage in the Nakdong river. Direct prediction time series models were successfully developed for both cases of before and after the barrage construction using past measurement data of rainfall, river stage, and groundwater level as inputs. The correlation coefficient values between observed and predicted data were over 0.97. Using the time series models the effect of river stage on groundwater level data was filtered out by setting a constant value for river stage inputs. The filtered data were applied to the hybrid water table fluctuation method in order to estimate the groundwater recharge. The calculated ratios of groundwater recharge to precipitation before and after the barrage construction were 11.0% and 4.3%, respectively. It is expected that the proposed method can be a useful tool for groundwater level prediction and recharge estimation in the riverside area.
김규범(Kim Gyoobum),최두형(Choi Doohoung),윤필선(Yoon Pilsun),김기영(Kim Kiyoung) 한국지반환경공학회 2010 한국지반환경공학회논문집 Vol.11 No.3
국내 지하수 오염을 감시 관측하기 위하여 1990년대 초부터 2,000개 이상의 지하수수질측정망이 설치 운영중에 있으며, 지하수오염우려가 높은 지점에 설치된 781개소의 1996년부터 2007년까지 연 2회 분석 자료를 활용하여 오염우려지역에서의 지하수 수질 현황과 추세특성을 분석하였다. 건강상 유해물질이 검출된 경우의 평균 농도는 시안, 수은, 페놀, 6가 크롬, 트리클로로에틸렌, 데트라클로로에틸렌, 1.1.1-트리클로로에탄 등에서 생활용 지하수 수질기준을 초과하는 것으로 나타났고, 일반오염물질의 평균 농도는 기준 이하로 나타났으나 이는 상대적으로 비오염지역에 설치된 국가지하수관측정의 수질 보다 농도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. Sen의 방법을 이용하여 토지용도별로 일반오염물질(염소이온농도, 질산성질소, 수소이온농도)과 전기전도도의 추세를 평가한 결과, 도시지역과 공단지역 등에서 수질 악화 비율이 높은 것으로 나타났고, 2000년대 중반에도 수질 악화는 더욱 가속화되는 것으로 평가되었으며, 지역에 따라 수질이 개선되는 지역이 있는 반면 수질악화가 심화되는 등 추세의 편차가 증가되는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 계속되는 수질 악화를 방지하기 위해서는 본 연구에서 제시된 수질 악화 추세가 높은 지역에 대해서 보다 세밀한 감시관측을 수행하고 보다 정밀한 분석을 통하여 개선 대책을 수립, 시행하는 것이 필요된다. Groundwater quality monitoring wells, which is over 2,000 in South Korea, were managed to observe groundwater quality since the early 1990s. Groundwater was sampled and analyzed biannually from 781 monitoring wells located in the areas with a high possibility of pollution. The average concentrations of cyanide, mercury, phenols, hexavalent chromium, trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylen, and 1.1.1-trichloroethane for 12 years’ data of detected cases were above the groundwater quality standard, but the average concentrations of the general quality items such as pH, electric conductivity, nitrate-nitrogen, and chloride, are below the standard. To compare a quality trend for each land-use type of the monitoring site, Sen’s method is used for four quality items; chloride, nitrate-nitrogen, pH, and electric conductivity. The upward trend for these items is remarkable in urbideareas and industrial complexes and this trend continues still strongly after 2001. The deviation in a trend slopes of monitoring wells becomes bigger in the mid-2000s. In conclusion, trend analysis using existing monitoring data cidebe effective to forecast the future water quality condition and the solid action to protect groundwater quality should be done in advance using a result of trend analysis.