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Deterrence and Stability for the Korean Peninsula
( Paul K Davis ),( Peter Wilson ),( Jeong Eun Kim ),( Jun Ho Park ) 한국국방연구원 2016 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.28 No.1
Most trends on the Korean Peninsula favor South Korea, but North Korea’s nuclear program is a great concern, as is the possibility that the North will become desperate at some point because of negative trends. Although unlikely, war. even limited nuclear war.is imaginable in the years ahead, perhaps with winners and losers. This poses challenges for strategic planning. RAND and KIDA have been conducting a collaborative research addressing this issue and this paper is the output of the first year’s research. The first section of this paper reviews and extends strategic theory and lessons from the Cold War by drawing on classic papers and more recent literature, the principal author’s experiences with U.S. strategic planning, recently declassified materials, history, and psychological research. This is followed by a section that outlines the challenges for deterrence salient to Korea today, particularly ways in which deterrence could fail, using historical cases. The final section discusses implications for Korea, highlighting the need to think through how South Korea should consider its new military capabilities and the need to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence. Complacency regarding both matters would be dangerous. Deterrence could fail for such reasons as misperceptions, misunderstanding the adversary, other aspects of limited rationality, and accidents. Further, the challenges for extended deterrence are much greater than earlier, as are those in achieving balance in planning.
Policymakers and stakeholders' perceptions of science-driven nuclear energy policy
Nan Li,Dominique Brossard,Dietram A. Scheufele,Paul P.H. Wilson 한국원자력학회 2018 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.50 No.5
This study surveyed 137 policymakers and key stakeholders (e.g., employees of government agencies,academic institutions, nonprofit organizations, industry, and advocacy groups) involved in making decisionson nuclear energy policy, investigating how they differentially perceived the importance of scientificevidence in driving nuclear policy.We also identified the policy areas that each group of decisionmakersare mostly concerned about and showed how such concerns might contextualize and ultimatelyshape their perceptions of science-driven policy
Park, Eun-Kee,Johnson, Anthony R.,Wilson, Donald,Thomas, Paul S.,Yates, Deborah H. Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute 2020 Safety and health at work Vol.11 No.4
Background: Asbestos exposure is associated with the development of the cancer malignant mesothelioma (MM). Measurement of soluble mesothelin-related protein (SMRP) has been suggested as a method for detection of MM in its early stages. We prospectively examined SMRP levels in participants with asbestos exposure who are a group at a high risk of development of MM. Methods: This study was a follow-up of our cohort of 322 asbestos-exposed participants. No further participants developed MM or malignancy over the study period. Mean follow-up time was 22.9 months. Results: Mean (standard deviation) SMRP levels at baseline and follow-up were 0.94 (0.79) and 0.91 (0.86) nmol/L (p = 0.1033), respectively. Mean SMRP levels of the healthy individuals exposed to asbestos at baseline was significantly lower than those of participants with asbestosis and pleural plaques alone; similar patterns were found on follow-up measurements. There was a statistically significant effect of age on serial SMRP measurements. Our study confirms higher levels in participants with nonmalignant asbestos-related disorders. Levels decreased in asbestos-related disorders other than asbestosis, where a small increase was observed. We did not detect any further cases of malignancy. Conclusion: Monitoring programs for early detection of MM need to take into account increased SMRP levels found in benign asbestos-related diseases.
Particle tracking acceleration via signed distance fields in direct-accelerated geometry Monte Carlo
Patrick C. Shriwise,Andrew Davis,Lucas J. Jacobson,Paul P.H. Wilson 한국원자력학회 2017 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.49 No.6
Computer-aided design (CAD)-based Monte Carlo radiation transport is of value to the nuclear engineering community for its ability to conduct transport on high-fidelity models of nuclear systems, but it is more computationally expensive than native geometry representations. This work describes the adaptation of a rendering data structure, the signed distance field, as a geometric query tool for accelerating CAD-based transport in the direct-accelerated geometry Monte Carlo toolkit. Demonstrations of its effectiveness are shown for several problems. The beginnings of a predictive model for the data structure's utilization based on various problem parameters is also introduced.