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이병태(Byungtae Lee) 한국경제연구원 2011 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.2011 No.4_1
The Korean government has pushed the very ambitious “green growth” strategy which has generates many government initiatives. There has been speculation that these government drives may trigger a new “green” bubble economy like the recent dot.com bubble. This research examines whether this concern may be realized or not. In order to investigate, first we characterize roles and impact of bubble. Only negative impacts of bubble economy have been frequently cited as we see in the global finance crisis which is believed to have been triggered by bubble in real estate market. The bubble burst of dotcom fever is another example. However, there are many positive roles that bubble economy brings. History shows that there are radical industrial structural changes with new technologies after bubbles. For instance, IT, especially, Web technology triggered dotcom bubble, which resulted in e-business era and broad impacts in business and our lives. Of course there have been bubbles without such innovative technologies such as the well-known tulip bubble in Netherlands. When bubble precedes industrial revolution, it supplies capital to technological innovation and gathers consumers’ attention. That will make market grow faster. This paper summarize characteristics of the so-called “momentum technology” that triggers bubble but eventually industrial revolution. They are (ⅰ) accelerating speed of production and diffusion of technology, (ⅱ) economies of scale, and (ⅲ) continuous innovation. Through these characteristics, consumers can enjoy lowering cost of technology. However, emerging green technologies do not exhibit such characteristics. Hence, there will be no “natural” momentum technology. On the other hand, to create a bubble economy, there must be a market feedback mechanism in capital market that provides market signal of price inflation so that more investors enter the market. However, currently there is no such market for green technology. While new “green technologies” do not have economical advantage or expectation to achieve that in near future, new regulatory compliance or government policies to curb CO₂ may reduce gap in cost or even reverse the price disadvantage against the incumbent technology. However, the economic gap seems too big for such possibilities. Another possibility of bubble creation is massive investment by government or incentives toward that direction. In late 90’s Korean government policy to promote new tech startups is a good example. We review political and socio-economic factors and environment that enabled such aggressive government policies. We show that there is no analogy to green technology. Korean government could pursue IT initiatives with already widely accepted belief on IT as the infrastructure of new economy. However, there is no such consensus on green technology yet. In addition, Korean government could promote new startups (dotcom’s) as a solution to the foreign currency crisis Korean economy had in the mid-90’s. It was considered as an alternative to Jaebeol oriented economy which was attributed as one of causes of the crisis. However, there is no such enabling factors to government massive drives toward green technology investment. We conclude that green technology and the investment for that will be very slow evolution rather than revolution.
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『스페인의 대지』와 『누구를 위하여 종은 울리나』에 나타난 헤밍웨이의 인본주의적 개인주의 연구
이병태(Byungtae Lee) 한국영미어문학회 2011 영미어문학 Vol.- No.100
This study examined Hemingway’s personal letters, articles, and narrations of documentaries filmed in Spain, focusing on selected works written during the Spanish Civil War. Hemingway had begun formulating his ideology about man’s responsibility to others, which asserted his unequivocal belief in basic inherent human rights, an ideology which may be termed his humanitarian individualism. Although elements of his humanitarian individualism may be identified in the majority of his works, it was during this bloody civil war, in which thousands of civilians were massacred by the Fascists, that he solidly articulated and demonstrated his humanitarian ideals. Written just after To Have and Have Not, Hemingway’s For Whom the Bell Tolls appears to have changed his focus from the individual to the community. This study explored Hemingway’s emotional journey into the heart of man and carefully observed his beliefs of humanitarian individualism, which advocated freedom, liberty, and justice for all people everywhere.
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온라인 경매에서의 신용카드 허위거래 탐지 요인에 대한 실증 연구
채명신,조형준,이병태 한국경영과학회 2004 經營 科學 Vol.21 No.2
Although the Internet is useful for transferring information, Internet auction environments make fraud more attractive to offenders, because the chance of detection and punishment is decreased. One of these frauds is the phantom transaction, which is a colluding transaction by the buyer and seller to commit the illegal discounting of a credit card. They pretend to fulfill the transaction paid by credit card, without actually selling products, and the seller receives cash from the credit card corporations. Then the seller lends it out with Quite a high interest rate to the buyer, whose credit rating is so poor that he cannot borrow money from anywhere else The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the factors necessary to detect phantom transactions in an online auction. Based upon studies that have explored the behaviors of buyers and sellers in online auctions, the following have been suggested as independent variables: bidding numbers, bid increments. sellers' credit, auction lengths, and starting bids. In this study, we developed Internet-based data collection software and collected data on transactions of notebook computers, each of which had a winning bid of over ￦ one million. Data analysis with a logistic regression model revealed that starting bids, sellers' credit, and auction length were significant in detecting the phantom transactions.
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