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전찬영 한국해양수산개발원 2003 해양정책연구 Vol.18 No.2
For the timely construction of a SOC and the exercising of creative energy & efficiency through conducting private investment, The Government of Korea established the "Act on Promoting Private Participation in Infrastructure" in 1994. In 1998, with the strengthening of financial support for the private investment projects and managing them more efficiently, the Government renamed the existing Act "Act on Private Participation in Infrastructure" and began to improve all facets of the Act.Nowadays, however, private investment in port project still faces difficulties due to internal problems and operation risks of the present method of conducting private investment project namely the BTO(Build-Transfer-Own) or BOT(Build-Own-Transfer). Therefore we have to modify the overall aspects of the existing method as well as research new ones in order to promote the use of private capital and the introduction of creativeness & efficiency. In this paper, PPI(Partial Private Investment) and BTL(Build- Transfer- Lease) are adopted as possible alternatives to the present method. Each models' individual peculiarity is analyzed and evaluated compositely by AHP (Analytic-Hierarchy-Process). The most favored alternative, as a result of these evaluations, is diagnosed as the process of carrying out private investment projects and the various options to make it more available in real execution are proposed.
전찬영 한국해운학회 1999 해운물류연구 Vol.28 No.-
Vector Autoregressive(VAR) model can be usefully applied to various kinds of multiple macroeconomic time series data due to its ability to analyze many variables simultaneously. In VAR model, it's possible to know the response of one variable to an impulse of another variable and the proportion of forecast error variance of one accounted by others. Thus, one would like to investigate the relationship between two variables in a higher dimensional system. Nevertheless, there are many previous questions to be solved in utilizing the dynamic properties of VAR process. Amongst them, overparameterization and absence of proper estimation method are the key problems to limit the widespread use of the model. In this paper, for forecast of tanker freight rates VARMAX model will be established to overcome the overparameterization and Hannan and Rissanen's 3-step estimation method (HR method), which has been applied to ARMAX modeling, will be generalized in order to obtain the efficient estimate for the parameters of VARMAX model.