농업·농촌에 대한 2020년 국민의식 조사 결과

우병준(Woo Byungjoon),정도채(Chung Dochai),박혜진(Park Hyejin) 한국농촌경제연구원 2020 한국농촌경제연구원 연구자료 Vol.- No.-

축사시설현대화사업 연차별 투융자 규모 산정 연구

우병준(Woo Byungjoon),유찬희(Rhew Chanhee),한봉희(Han Bonghee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2016 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

축사시설현대화사업의 도입 목적은 한·미, 한·EU, 한·영연방 FTA 체결 등 축산물 시장 개방에 대응하기 위해 축사 및 축산시설을 개선하고 생산성 향상을 통해 축산업 경쟁력을 높이는 것이다. FTA 체결이 확대되면서 축사시설현대화사업에의 투융자 예산도 함께 확대되어 왔으나 투융자 규모의 적절성에 대한 지적이 제기되었다. 이 연구는 주요 축종별 미래 수급전망과 함께 축종별 미래 사육 농가 수를 전망하고 이를 활용해 연차별 축사시설현대화사업 투융자 필요 규모를 산출하는 것이 주된 목적이다. 이 연구는 먼저 축사시설현대화사업 도입 성과와 농가들의 만족도, 불만 및 건의사항을 정리하였다. 그리고 축사시설현대화사업에 참여한 농가의 축종별 실태를 파악하고, 미래 사업 수요 예측과 성과 확대를 위해 농가들의 사업 참여 여부와 관련된 통계적인 특성을 분석하였다. 가축 사육농가가 축사시설대화사업에 참여하는 데 어떠한 요인들이 영향을 주는지를 파악하기 위해 이항로짓 모형으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 경영주의 연령이 낮을수록 축사시설현대화를 더 실시하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 현재의 축산 경영을 계속해서 유지할 수 있음을 의미한다. 또한 후계자가 있는 경우가 없는 경우보다 축사시설현대화사업에 더 많이 참여하는 것으로 나타났다. 축사 건축 연도의 경우 축사시설이 노후화하지 않은 경우에 투자를 더 하는 것으로 분석되어 농가가 시설개보수에 대한 관심이 많을수록 축사시설현대화사업에 더욱 적극적으로 참여하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 사육규모가 클수록 축사시설현대화사업에 더 참여한 것으로 추정되었다. 사육규모를 4분위로 구분하였을 때, 가장 규모가 큰 4분위 농가는 1분위 농가보다 3.6배, 3분위 농가는 2.7배, 2분위 농가는 1.7배 더 참여한 것으로 나타났다. 젊고 규모화된 농가는 축사시설현대화사업에 비교적 적극적으로 참여하는 반면, 후계농 확보에 어려움이 있거나 연령이 높은 경우에는 소극적인 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 이들 계층에 속하는 농가들이 적극적으로 사업에 참여할 수 있는 유인책을 강구할 필요가 있으며, 특히 장기적으로 후계농 매칭사업 등을 연계해서 시설에 대한 적극적인 투자가 계속될 수 있도록 유도해야 할 것으로 판단된다. 농가 특성 분석 결과 사육규모가 클수록 축사시설현대화사업에 더 많이 참여하는 경향이 있기 때문에 향후 축사시설현대화사업에 참여할 가능성이 상대적으로 높은 일정 규모 이상 농가 수를 축종별로 전망하였다. 2025년 축사시설현대화사업의 주된 대상이 될 것으로 판단되는 전업 규모이상 농가 수가 2015년과 비교하여 5.6% 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 반면 2025년 축종별 사육 마릿수는 2015년과 비슷하거나 소폭 증가할 것으로 전망되기 때문에 전체 농가 수는 감소하더라도 농가당 사육 마릿수는 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 이는 축사시설현대화사업에 참여하는 농가 수가 지금과 비교하여 비슷한 수준을 유지할 것임을 의미한다. 따라서 축사시설현대화사업의 연차별 융자 금액은 현재와 비슷한 수준인 연간 총액 2,500억 원 수준으로 설정하는 것이 미래 축산업 여건을 고려할 때 적정할 것으로 판단된다. The Korean government has introduced the “Modernizing Animal Facility Project (MAFP)” to improve competitiveness in the domestic market facing a huge wave of “Free Trade Agreements” with the US, EU and Commonwealth countries. The amount of governmental subsidy for MAFP has increased with the conclusion of FTAs. Some criticize increasing subsidy for MAFP has negative effects on Korean agriculture and the future expenditure plan for MAFP is less achievable. This study evaluates the outcome of MAFP with farmers’ opinion. Most of farmers agreed that MAFP played an important role to improve competitiveness toward FTAs and meat importing. Some farmers pointed out the difficulty of participating in MAFP due to strict law and policies related. This study applied a LOGIT model to analyze and identify which factor influences farmers’ decision on participating in MAFP. The reason of this analysis is to understand farmers behavior on MAFP and, with the understanding, forecast future governmental subsidy necessity for MAFP. To do this, this study tested several factors such as farmers" work experience, age, existence of successor, productivity, building area and head of animals. The analysis shows that younger farmers more participate in MAFP than older farmers. And experienced farmers with successors are more likely to apply to MAFP. Farmers with more animal head tend to join in MAFP compared to others. This result confirms that farmers with larger farm size are more likely to participate in MAFP. To calculate the future MAFP subsidy necessity, it is also necessary to forecast the number of farm households and animal head. For the number of animal head, this study adopted “Agricultural Outlook 2016” from KREI. For the number of households, we tested several statistical distributions. By 2025, the number of farm households is expected to decrease from year 2015 by 5.6%. However, the number of animals per household is expected to increase in the future. This result shows that farmers’ demand for MAFP in the future may not decrease from current level. This also means the Korean government don’t need to reduce a budget for MAFP and should keep it as current level of 250 billion won annually.

구제역 청정국 지위 유지 여부의 영향 분석

우병준(Woo, Byung-Joon),이명기(Moungki Lee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The Foot and mouth disease was spreading to the whole country of Korea. The economic harm of the FMD has shown as farms’ loss and government expenditure. In addition, livestock industry and its linked sectors also have suffered economic losses from the disease. It was criticized that government’s policy target for FMD free country status without vaccination policy was inappropriate and maintaining FMD free country status has no economic gain to the Korea. With that point of view, it is necessary to review other countries’ FMD policies, OIE’s FMD related regulations and definitions of FMD free status. After reviewing all materials, this study estimates economic impacts from the outbreak of FMD and its policy implications. This study provides scientifically sound knowledge of FMD to make people easily understand related matters. Also providing FMD policies of other countries such as England, Netherlands, Japan, Uruguay, Chinese Taipei. These policies are compared to the Korean policy to properly modify FMD policy decision making. Especially other countries policy of success and failure will be precisely dealt with in this study. This study shows that it is necessary to maintain the FMD free country status with several reasons. Mostly, the disease free status can be achieved from adequate prevention system. Without disease prevention system, the productivity will be decreased and it could be worsen off. The input-output analysis was performed in this study. The analysis was co-worked with the Korea Development Institute. The analysis result shows that economic impact of FMD outbreak in Korea. The measure is based on a reduction of number of livestock unit and production value reduction. In the scenario analysis, if livestock productivity dropped in 10%, production value decreased to almost 2.4 trillion won. This figure shows that animal disease prevention system playes an important role in agriculture and a nation"s economy. In another scenario analysis, this study assumed that regains the FMD free status in 2013 but the disease outbreak again shortly after getting the disease free status. Facing the disease outbreak, this study analyzes two policy options such as "vaccine-to-live" and "stamping out". The result shows that "stamping out" policy requires less government expenditure than "vaccine-to-live" if the volume of slaughter animal is below 15 thousands. This scenario analysis indicates that government"s decision making of FMD prevention should deploy ex-ante economic consideration before executed. After the declaration of FMD outbreak, the government have to consider and change several policy issues. Most of all, crisis management system have to be enhanced to effectively manage all kind of disease situations. Also vaccinated animal management system and farmer compensation system is needed to change. Proper stamping-out procedure respect to animal welfare and effective disease prevention system also necessary to be modified.

영상기반 시설물 점검 기술

우병준 ( Woo Byung-jun ),안윤규 ( An Yun-kyu ),이종재 ( Jong Jae Lee ) 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 2020 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.24 No.2

시설물 안전점검 및 유지관리의 과업 중 정기안전점검은 경험과 기술을 갖춘 사람에 의한 세심한 외관조사 수준의 점검으로서 시설물의 기능적 상태를 판단하고 시설물이 현재의 사용요건을 계속 만족시키고 있는지 확인하기 위한 관찰로 이루어진다. 최근 카메라 성능의 급격한 발전과 더불어 기기 조작의 편리함, 원격 정보 취득, 경제성 등의 이점을 가진 영상 기반 시설물 점검 관련 연구들이 널리 수행되고 있다. 이에 따라 고성능 비전 카메라를 활용한 시설물 안전점검에 활용한 연구들이 제안되고 있다.

벼 대체 사료작물 이용시스템 구축 방안

우병준(Woo, Byung-Joon),정민국(Jung, Min-Kook),이명기(Lee, Myung-Gi),김현중(Kim, Hyun Joong) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

지속적인 쌀 공급과잉과 이에 따른 쌀 가격의 하락은 농가의 소득감소 요인으로 작용하기에 일정 벼 재배면적을 타작물재배로 전환해야 한다. 그렇지만 식량상황의 급변을 고려해야 하기에 식량작물의 재배가 항시 가능하도록 논의 형상은 지속적으로 유지해야 하며, 이 경우 논에 벼 대체로 사료작물을 재배할 경우의 경제성 검토가 필요하다. 이 연구는 경종농가의 벼 대체 사료작물 재배 경제성 유무를 검토하고, 생산 이후 유통까지 벼 대체 사료작물의 효과적인 이용시스템 구축 방안을 제시하는 것을 그 목적으로 한다. 정부의 조사료 생산에 대한 각종 지원을 모두 고려할 경우 사료용 옥수수의 평균 소득은 10a당 88만 2천 원, 사료용 벼는 10a당 77만 9천 원에 달한다. 이는 최근 4년간 쌀 소득 10a당 59만 1천 원~70만 2천 원(평균 66만 2천 원)보다 옥수수의 경우 평균 22만 원, 사료용 총체벼는 11만 7천원이 더 높은 수준이다. 따라서 현재와 같은 정부의 보조가 지속될 경우 사료작물 재배의 경제성이 벼 재배보다 더 높다. 그러나 각종 정부 지원과 보조금을 제외할 경우에는 벼 재배농가의 소득이 사료작물 생산에 비해 더 높게 나타난다. 이 경우 우량 종자의 개발과 품종 개량을 통해 현재의 조사료 생산 단수를 더 높일 수 있는 다수확품종의 보급과 직접지불제의 도입을 통한 경종농가에의 유인책 도입이 필요하다. 또한 사료작물의 연중생산이 가능한 작부체계를 도입할 경우 높은 소득이 발생할 수 있음을 농가에 적극적으로 홍보하고, 더 높은 소득과 생산성을 위한 연구가 병행되어야 한다. 국내산 조사료 생산 및 이용확대를 위한 농가와 TMR 업체 대상 설문조사 결과, 경종농가는 사료작물 재배 후 확실한 판매처 확보와 적정 수준의 소득 보장이 필요하고 축산농가와 TMR 업체는 물량의 안정적인 확보와 조사료 품질 개선이 중요하다는 응답이 가장 많았다. 국내 조사료 이용체계에 있어 가장 큰 문제점은 조사료에 대한 시장기능이 존재하지 않거나 매우 미약하기 때문에 효율적인 유통구조가 구축되어 있지 못한 것이다. 현재 조사료 품질 수준에 상관없이 전국적으로 동일한 가격이 적용되기 때문에 최종 수요자의 합리적인 선택권이 박탈되고 생산자의 품질 관리 및 품질 제고에 대한 유인이 발생하지 않는다. 이러한 시장기구 부재 문제를 해결하기 위해 기존의 구매조합이 아닌 새로운 개념의 권역별 거점 조사료 유통센터를 조직하고, 이들 거점 조사료 유통센터가 해당 거점 권역 내에서 조사료 시장기구의 기능을 담당하도록 유도하는 방안을 검토해야 한다. 이러한 권역별 거점 조사료 유통센터의 기본 기능으로는 물류기능, 다양한 정보제공을 통한 불확실성 제거와 신뢰 제고, 원활한 수급 균형과 가격설정 등의 도매시장 기능의 제공, 영세사업자를 위한 자금지원 및 기계장비 임대 기능 등이 있다. This research examines an economic efficiency of growing forage crops instead of rice and establishes effective using-system of forage crops. Continuous exceed supply of rice with its decreasing price is pointed out as a main factor of farm income decline. To mitigate such situation, it is necessary to replace rice acreages to other alternative crops. However, considering food security and North Korea’s food shortage problem, it is important to maintain certain amounts of paddy field acreages. With government’s subsidies, producers’ net income from field corn and rice whole crop silage are 8,820,000won and 7,790,000won per a hectare each. These figures show higher net income than from food rice production. Without government’s subsidy, meanwhile, food rice growers’ net income much higher than forage crops. Thus, introducing more productivity and cost reducing technologies with direct payment for forage crops are necessary to facilitate replacing rice acreages. This study interviewed livestock growers, rice farmers, and TMR companies to examine the possible approaches of enlarging forage crop productions in paddy fields. The outcomes showed that maintaining stable sources of forage crops supply and demand are most important to derive income. Livestock industry also demands upgrading forage crop qualities. The research argues that a lack of market-based system is the main obstacle of restricting the growth of domestic forage crop production. To solve market inefficiency in domestic forage production and consumption, it is necessary to introduce the “forage crop exchange center” in a several regions. The “forage crop exchange center” will provides several functions such as forage crop wholesale market place, supplying information for reducing uncertainties and setting price signals, providing funding opportunities for small businesses.

축산업의 사회적 책임 이행 실태와 정책과제 (1/2차년도)

우병준(Woo Byungjoon),김현중(Kim Hyunjoong),박성진(Park Sungjin),서강철(Seo Gangcheol) 한국농촌경제연구원 2019 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Background & Purpose of Research The role that society requires of the livestock industry is becoming more complex and diverse than in the past. But different stakeholders" positions around the industry vary and social dialogue is not enough. Therefore, the livestock industry must accurately recognize and respond to the needs of society for sustainable development. To this end, it is necessary to figure out what is the social responsibility of the livestock industry and to organize the policies for carrying out the responsibilities. Method of Research This study reviewed past researches to summarize how Korea"s livestock policy and related laws have changed in response to changes in internal and external environments of the industry. A survey and IPA were conducted on consumers and producers to analyze the awareness and behavior of the livestock industry"s social responsibility. In addition, the study conducted a consumer analysis using a pro-social utility function to examine whether environmental conservation and animal welfare are significant buying factors. Research Results and Implications This study categorized the social responsibility of the livestock industry into four categories: civil responsibility, economic responsibility, ecological and environmental responsibility, and ethical responsibility. And the study summarized the policy tasks required to fulfill social responsibility. This study defined the role of the livestock industry as "production and supply of safe livestock products by using a way that the people can accept," and thus defined the social responsibility of the industry as "to faith fully fulfill the social needs." In the role of the livestock industry, "an acceptable way" is defined as "the legal production process of livestock products with no negative externality, and further requiring the implementation of ethical acts such as animal welfare." According to a survey of producers and consumers on social responsibility of the livestock industry, a difference in awareness between the two groups was confirmed. On strengthening social responsibility of the livestock industry, consumers put emphasis on toughening legal punishment when it comes to detecting illegal acts, while producers put the most importance on strengthening government policy support to root out livestock diseases and prevent environmental pollution. In relation to the fulfillment of the social responsibilities of the livestock industry, consumers value the awareness of the reality and voluntary improvement of the livestock industry, while producers believe that greater government policy support is the most important. The consumer survey has shown that consumers have very low awareness of organic and animal welfare products. However, consumers with experience in purchasing certified products were clearly aware of the importance of the products and were willing to pay additional amounts. Nearly half of the producers in the survey are considering whether to participate in organic livestock or animal welfare certification programs, but are not easily involved due to rising managing costs and concerns about income.

동물복지형 축산의 동향과 정책 과제

우병준(Byung-Joon Woo),허덕(Duk Huh),김현중(Hyun Joong Kim) 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

This research investigated the domestic and foreign trend of farmed animal welfare and the policy direction of introducing farmed animal welfare to the Korea. Introduction of farmed animal welfare to the Korean livestock industry is a future direction in many ways. Introducing a concept of farmed animal welfare supplies the protein of good quality to the citizen, protects the sustainability of livestock industry, and guarantees the multi-functionality characteristics of agriculture. With consumer survey result and previous research of changing production cost, this study identifies, there can be an economic incentive of introducing animal welfare in the production phase. So far, however, we have no standard or guideline for farmed animal welfare, the result is driven mostly from the data of “anti-biotic free” and “organic” licensed farm. Furthermore, changes of transportation and slaughtering costs are not derived from data restriction. Thus we still don’t has a clear shot of economic efficiency. When considering the inherent characteristics of public benefit and market failure in farmed animal welfare, government needs to provide proper policy support to cure such problems. In this case, with the consumer survey result, expected price premium of animal welfare products can cover an increased production cost of farm. To introduce farmed animal welfare, this study proposes several policy options. Firstly, it is necessary to provide enough information to both producer and consumer. Especially the research which relates with farmed animal welfare is not adequate to provide scientific knowledge and proper government policy. Secondly, it is important to show a future direction of policy provision. The government now enacts a law to introduce farmed animal welfare certification scheme in a market. However, producer and consumer don’t has enough information about the certification scheme. Without any proper information, market system can’t work efficiently. Thirdly, to maximize social welfare, the government’s intervention is very important. The government can choose several policy options such as direct payment, monitoring system, and setting standard with certification. The principle of economics indicates that incentive system is the best solution to cure existing market failure problem. Finally, this study suggests a new body, tentatively named “Korea Animal Welfare Council”, to discuss and manage domestic animal welfare issues.

축산계열화사업 성과와 과제

우병준(Woo Byung-joon),김형진(Kim Hyung-jin) 한국농촌경제연구원 2015 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The Korean government has introduced the “law of Livestock industry integration” in 2013. The main purpose of this study is to assess a law-abidingness of poultry industry after the legislation. This study also pursues drawing a task for a successful livestock industry integration policy. To achieve the purpose, this study summarizes a concept and history of a livestock industry integration in Korea. The keystone of the “law of Livestock industry integration” and related regulations are reviewed in the study. This study shows that top 10 poultry packers’ slaughtering volume occupied 70.4 percent of total domestic poultry slaughtering in 2014. This study estimated the Korean poultry market concentration rate, and its annual growth rate is less than 2 percent during last 10 years. The estimated CR3, CR5, and CR8 are 36%, 50.5%, and 64.7% each. In addition, estimated HHI shows that the annual growth rate of the Korean poultry market is less than 3 percent. All those outcomes confirm that the Korean poultry market is not a perfectly oligopoly market. The becoming of oligopoly market is currently underway but the competition between high-ranked packers is getting deepened. After introducing the livestock industry integration policy, the poultry productivity index increased from 203.5 in 2000 to 294 in 2013. Especially contracted farms show highly increased outcome compared to non-contracted farms. Farmers replied to the survey that the “law of Livestock industry integration” positively affects several rearing contract related issues. The survey result from 94 poultry farms shows that farms’ annual number of breeding is about 5 times and average commission is about 23,600 thousand won for a time. The main reasons of farmers’ changing contractor are replied as “quality of chick”, “the amounts of commission”, and “commission evaluation system.” These replies mean farmers still feel disadvantage by packers after introducing the “law of Livestock industry integration” in 2013. This study realizes the main task for improving livestock industry integration policy is forming the mutual trust between farmers and packers in rearing contract. To meet this end, several policy improvements are necessary such as “prompt introducing and adopting use of standard form contract”, “forming and strengthening the farmer-council toward contractors or packers”, and “monitoring illegal activities of packers.” The U.S. “Packers and Stockyards Program” is also a good example to improve relationship between farms and packers towards better partnership. Introducing a better standard, such as productivity measure or efficiency measure, to analyze a performance of the related policy is another key to achieve better industry structure.

축산물 수출시장 확대 방안

우병준(Byung-Joon Woo),김현중(Kim Hyunjoong) 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The weak export performance of meat products is mainly due to animal diseases outbreak and low price competitiveness. Animal diseases such as FMD and HPAI prohibit domestic livestock industry from exporting meat products. High production costs impose a severe strain on pricecompetitiveness. The central and local governments, and export related organizations are trying to resolve low export-competitiveness. The main purpose of this research is supporting the effort. To do so, this research reviews current main export markets of pork, poultry, and milk products and discovers future promising foreign markets. This research, in pork export market, identifies that disease eradication, increase quality and price competitiveness, attaining more foreign market information, and intensive export quarantine and permit are necessary to increase foreign market pork products export. To increase poultry product export, this research suggests increasing quality and price competitiveness, eradicating animal diseases, higher hygiene standards, attaining foreign consumers’ preferences, and government’s effort of strict product monitoring. In case of milk products, the current outbreak of FMD and china’s import-prohibition provides a clue of how to handle difficulties. The government and private enterprises have to gather and discuss how to maximize possible outcomes (or minimize damages) when they face importing country’s market prohibition activities.

인공지능을 이용한 구조건전성 모니터링 기술

이종재 ( Jong-jae Lee ),우병준 ( Woo Byung-jun ),유용래 ( Yu Yong-rae ) 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 2020 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.24 No.1

4차 산업혁명에 따라 센서 및 영상기술이 발달하고 데이터 처리 기술들이 발전하면서 구조건전성 모니터링 분야는 이러한 기술들을 적용해 발전시키려는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 특히 인공지능 기술의 발달은 고화질 영상 데이터를 통한 육안 점검 항목의 정량적 평가가 가능하게 하였고, 대용량 센서 데이터를 활용한 구조물의 거동 예측 등 안전성 평가 발전에 큰 영향을 끼치고 있다. 이 글에서는 세종대학교 에서 진행해왔던 인공지능을 적용한 구조건전성 모니터링 연구 사례들을 간략하게 소개하고자 한다.