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안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2012 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.13 No.1
This paper is aiming at providing the systems thinking perspective on the collapse of the savings and loan banking system in Korea. Two causal loop diagrams are developed to conduct the analysis: The first is focusing on the structural problems included in the establishment of S&L banking in 1990s. The later is developed based on the project financing mechanism by controlling the credit standard required during the due diligence. The result of this study shows that the main cause of the collapse of the S&L banking is the structural problem connected to real estate market including the failure of regulation.
김현실 ( Hyun Shil Kim ),안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2005 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.6 No.1
Although the generation market is competitive, the power market is easily exercised the market power by one generator due to its special futures such as a limited supplier, large investment cost, transmission constraints and loss. Specially, as Korea Electric industry restructuring is similar US competitive wholesale electricity market structure which discovered the several evidences of market power abuse, when restructuring is completed the possibility that market power will be exercised is big. Market power interferes with market competitions and efficiency of system. The goal of this study is to investigate the market price effects of the potential market power and the proposed market power mitigation strategy in Korean market using the forecasting wholesale electricity market model. This modeling is developed based on the system dynamics approach. it can analyze the dynamic behaviors of wholesale prices in Korean market. And then it is expanded to include the effect of market condition changed by "strategic behavior" and "real time pricing." This model can generate the overall insights regarding the dynamic impact of output withholding by old gas fire power plant known as a marginal plant in Korean market at the macro level. Also it will give the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future for deregulated wholesales market in Korea.
부하불확실성 및 송전제약을 고려한 지역별 가격 및 공급지장 예측
윤용범(YongBeum Yoon),박정연(Jung Yeon Park),안남성(Nam Sung Ahn),마삼선(Sam Sun Ma),박성원(Sung Won Park) 대한전기학회 2006 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2006 No.7
계통 운용 및 전력시장측면에서 지역별 적정자원을 어떻게 확보할 것인가에 관한 문제가 최근 국내외적으로 큰 관심사로 대두되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 전력수급 계획을 기반으로 부하불확실성과 북상조류 제약, 발전소 고장정지율 등을 고려하여 지역별(경인지역, 비경인지역, 제주지역) 진력가격 및 공급지장 시간을 고찰하였다.
마삼선(Sam Sun Ma),윤용범(Yong Beum Yoon),안남성(Nam Sung Ahn),이재걸(Jae Gul Lee),김현실(Hyun Sil Kim) 대한전기학회 2006 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2006 No.7
계통운영 보조서비스는 전력계통의 안정성 확보, 전기품질 유지 및 전력거래 활성화를 위한 필수적인 서비스이다. 계통운영 보조서비스의 비용요소는 연료비, 운영유지비, 자본비용, 기회비용으로 구분된다. 이의 적정비용규모를 산정하여 보조서비스 제공자에게 보상함으로써 전력의 공급안정성 확보에 크게 기여할 수 있게 된다. 여기서는 국내 진력시장에서 연료비와 운영유지비 측면에서 적정비용규모를 산정하고 현재 운용중인 시장규칙과 비교하여 개선방안을 제시한다.
한국의 미래 에너지사회 전망에 관한 연구: 계층분석법과 인과지도의 보완적 분석을 중심으로
황병용 ( Byung Yong Hwang ),최한림 ( Han Lim Choi ),안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2010 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.11 No.3
This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. `Global economic trends`, `change of industrial structure` and `energy price` were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as `rate of energy self-sufficiency and alternative energy production`, `economic activity and energy demand` and `Excavation of new growth engines` were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.
CBP시장에서 한계손실계수(MLF)의 적용에 따른 단기적 영향분석
이재걸(Lee Jae-gul),윤용범(Yoon Yong-beum),안남성(Ahn Nam-sung) 대한전기학회 2006 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2006 No.11
Because Cost Based Pool(CBP) has any locational signals for electricity price, there are any locational incentives for construction of new power plant high efficient. in case of Korean electricity power market, this incentives are very important to reduce loss and congestion. This Paper represent the effect of MLF(Marginal Loss Factor) as locational price signal in short period. we investigate mathematically loss reduced effect of MLF and prove to reduce transmission loss using 3bus test system.
신재생에너지 보급량 예측을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모델 개발
김현실 ( Hyun Shil Kim ),고경호 ( Kyung Ho Ko ),안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ),조병옥 ( Byung Oke Cho ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2006 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.7 No.2
Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government`s incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.
제3차 전력수급기본계획에 따른 시장지배력 행사가능성 및 영향분석
李宰杰(Jae-gul Lee),朴民赫(Min-hyuk Park),安南成(Nam-sung Ahn) 대한전기학회 2007 전기학회논문지 Vol.56 No.6
In this paper, we try to analyze the likelihood of exercising the power of market dominance by certain generators in future power industry of Korea. Firstly, we estimated installed generation capacity and sales volume of electricity in Korea, based on "The 3rd Long Term Power Plan" which was announced in December 2006. Secondly, we calculated HHI, an index showing the degree of concentration of an industry, and RSI, an index showing how adequate the supply of goods or services of an industry is, using Fast-Forward. Thirdly, assuming a major generator employs the strategy of withholding a part of its available capacity at a peak time, we simulated hypothetical movement of SMP over a certain period of time, which is compared with that obtained without assuming such strategy to generate Lerner Index, an index showing the degree of market power of a monopoly. Regulators, home and abroad, have not given much interest in analyzing the effect of market dominance that is likely to be exercised by certain players in the future. That said, this paper provides insight into developing methodologies of analyzing and mitigating such effect by proposing the above indices to gauge it. In addition, this paper also shows the potential impact of employing capacity withholding strategy on the financial account of a dominant generator.
이윤경(Lee Yun Kyoung),이용석(Lee-Yong Suk),안남성(Ahn Nam Sung),윤용범(Yoon Yong Beom),이재걸(Lee Jae Gul) 대한전기학회 2006 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2006 No.11
2004년 7월 1일부터 시행이 시작되어 현재 1곳의 시범지역을 운영하고 있는 구역전기사업은 소형열 병합발전을 기반 기술로 활용하고 있다. 국내 구역전기 사업의 잠재량 예측을 위해 본 연구에서는 인구증가율과 인구증가율에 따른 주택건축수요를 기본 데이터로 사용하였다. 잠재량예측을 위해 프로세스는 시스템다이나믹스 모델인 VENSIM을 사용하였다. VENSIM에서 예측된 주택수요에 따라 택지 잠재량을 계산하였으며 계산된 택지 잠재량 중 구역전기사업을 수행했을 때 사업자 입장에서 사업성 판단 기준에 따라 구역전기사업의 잠재량을 예측하였다.