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성명환 한국농업정책학회, 한국축산경영학회 2001 농업경영정책연구 Vol.28 No.3
World production and the ratio of stocks of food grains has decreased. On the other hand, the consumption and trade of food grains has increased. To analyze the stability of production and prices of rice, wheat, maize and soybeans, unit root tests were applied. As a result of the analysis showed that the production and price were unstable. Although the production has gradually increased, the world price of food grains is still unstable. This implies, if the change in world agricultural conditions occurs in the future, it will have effects on the world production and price.
성명환(Sung, Myung-Hwan),권대흠(Kwon, Dae-Heum),오세익 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
The purpose of this study is to identify the status of coarse grains produced in Korea and to find implications required for facilitating the Korean minor cereal industry on the basis of conversion of consumer’s preference and the direction of agricultural policies. To this purpose, we collect and analyze basic data for identifying the status of Korean minor cereal industry through survey of distribution of coarse grains produced in Korea. There is a great opportunity for increasing production and distribution of coarse grains produced in Korea. With the spread of food consumption pattern oriented to healthy living and increasing old-age groups, consumer preference for coarse grains produced in Korea is still high. Changes of agricultural policies contribute to the great opportunity for increasing the market of coarse grains produced in Korea as well. That is, it is encouraged to grow other crops instead of rice in paddies by means of support policies because of accumulated rice stocks resulting from recent decrease in rice consumption in Korea. Referring to the result of this study, coarse grains, e.g., millet, foxtail millet, Indian millet, adzuki beans, etc., are valuable for different use as well as healthy functional food. Therefore, it is necessary to make an effort for advertising and commercializing the use of coarse grains mentioned above. By the way, cultivation of coarse grains still depends highly on manual work because of the low level of mechanized farming and it has a weak basis for soil management, e.g., drainage and water supply facilities which is thus a factor of lowering productivity and lower quality. However, it is necessary to attempt diversified cropping systems including cropping paddies, fields, etc., for improving farmers" income as well as efficient use of farm land, since coarse grain has short growing period as compared to low productivity and a wide range of adaptation to the environment. With reference to current distribution of millet, foxtail millet, Indian millet, adzuki beans, etc. Nonghyup as a processing and selling union of farmers rather than local distributors have been engaged in distribution. Even though farmers" association has a high market share in producers" market, the share of Nonghyup as a processer and seller in wholesale market is significantly low as compared to the high share of private processors and wholesalers. The reason that a high share of farmers’ associations in producers" market is not connected to the step of wholesale is due to the significantly improving capacity of private processors and intermediate wholesalers for processing and selling the cereals. However, the scale of Nonghyup’s processing and selling coarse grains at the wholesale step is stagnant, resulting in farmers associations’ lowered competitiveness as compared to the private business sector. Coarse grains can be a highly usable factor for vitalizing local agriculture. Coarse grains can be cultivated with less agricultural chemicals and are environment-friendly crops as well. Therefore, it is worth to actively enhance the farming structure of coarse grains, focused on individual farm households to organize specialized business based on local agriculture and to promote construction of production bases, e.g., installation of drainage in hillside paddies for encouraging to cultivate coarse grains in the paddies, abd installation of hire business sites for farm machines and equipment.
미국과 유럽의 사례를 통해 본 증오범죄 통계법안(2016년 이종걸 의원안) 고찰
성명환(Sung, Myung-hwan),심희섭(Shim, Hee Sub) 한국민간경비학회 2021 한국민간경비학회보 Vol.19 No.5
증오범죄는 피해자 개인에게 신체적‧정신적 악영향을 초래할 뿐만 아니라 동일한 특질을 지닌 인구집단에게 부정적이고도 포괄적인 파급력을 미칠 수 있다는 점에서 국가 차원에서 더 이상 도외시하기 어렵다. 이러한 맥락에서, 2016년 국회에서 제안되었다가 철회되었던 「증오범죄 통계법안」에 대한 본고의 검토는 충분히 의미가 있다. 미국과 유럽 사례의 검토를 바탕으로 한 본고의 연구 결과, 해당 법안은 증오범죄의 개념 정의에 있어서 묻지마 범죄의 개념을 포섭하고, 행위양태에 대한 아무런 제한을 두고 있지 않으며, 보호대상으로 하는 개인적 특질을 제한적으로 기술하는 등 국제적 흐름과는 다소 차이를 보이고 있음을 확인하였다. 관련 문제점에 대한 제언을 말미에 논의하였다. Hate crimes are difficult to ignore in that they not only lead to negative physical/mental effects on respective victims but also have a comprehensive negative impact on such a population group with the same characteristics. In this context, the review of this study on the ‘Hate Crime Statistics Bill,’ which was proposed by the National Assembly in 2016 and eventually withdrawn, is meaningful. Main findings, which are based on a comparison with both American and European approaches, include that the bill improperly define the concept of the motiveless crime, sets no limit on its behavior modality, and omits the specific range of individual victim’s traits that are subject to protection. That is, there is some room for doubt whether the bill is in line with the global standards. In addition to describing additional, several problems concerning the 2016 bill, suggestions responding to each problem are discussed.
국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장 정보시스템 구축 및 운영
성명환(Myung-Hwan Sung),한석호(Suk-Ho Han),손미연(Mi-Yeon Son),김원용(Won-Yong Kim),정기호(Ki-Ho Jeong) 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
Background of Research The objective of this study is to provide various information on world grain market to policy makers and related industries. For this objective, development of world grain price prediction model, causal relationship on domestic and international price gaps and effect of international grain price fluctuations on domestic prices are analyzed. Meanwhile, major information on world grain market is provided in the Korea Rural Economic Institute"s World Grain Market Website. Method of Research This study is divided into two parts. First is research part for world grain market analysis and second is operational part to provide related information to the world grain market information system. Hypothetical grain price fluctuations are analyzed by exporting countries through a scenario analysis. To predict world grain prices, a VAR model which is a multivariate time series technique is used to develop a predicting model for wheat, corn and soybean. World grain information system"s operational part maintains their system by adding and supplementing detailed information step by step and publications “World Grain Market” periodically. Research Results and Implications Medium and long term world grain supply-demand prediction shows that production and consumption will make demand-supply balance. However, the range of fluctuation on yearly production is increasing due to recent climate changes. Exporter/importers" policy changes according to production fall and global economic changes are also causing imbalance in supply and demand. According to the results of world grain market scenario analysis, the price elasticity of international soybean price to Chinese soybean import is 0.44. Since year 2004/05, the rise in Chinese meat consumption has increased international soybean price by 27.8$/t during 8 years. Price elasticity of international corn price to U.S. corn (Bio ethanol) import is 0.15. Since year 2004/05, corn price rose 7.9$/t during 8 years. The price elasticity of international soybean and corn prices to Brazil production is 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Since year 2004/05, international soybean and corn price fell 48$/t and 4.6$/t each during 8 years. The price elasticity of international wheat to Australian wheat output is 0.1. The deteriorating weather increased the wheat price by 10$/t since year 2004/05 for 8 years. To operate international grain information system, we need to examine methods to provide information, review composition of contents and improve ways to deliver suitable situation of domestic grains. Also, we need to satisfy users" information demands and conduct surveys to understand users" needs on processing information. Through above research, we must reinforce abilities to react on repeated rise and falls of world grain prices. We need to deliver accurate information of world grain price fluctuations, construct international grain price prediction models for related industries and consumers, and help to react in sudden changes. Meanwhile, we must aim to manage grain prices for domestic price stabilization and diversify transaction methods to stabilize primary agricultural product prices to stabilize domestic food consumption market.