수도권 고용밀도의 공간의존성 변화에 관한 연구

박헌수 ( Park Heon Soo ) 한국지역사회발전학회 2003 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.28 No.1

특성가격모형을 활용한 아파트 실거래가격지수 산정방법에 관한 연구

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국부동산분석학회 2009 不動産學硏究 Vol.15 No.3

A real estate price index tracks the price of a standard unit of housing over time. The index typically is constructed from observations on the sale price and characteristics of a sample of house sales. This paper constructs the transaction-based price indices from January 2006 to September 2009 by using hedonic price model. Due to the requirement of the stability of the index, the paper recommends the time varying parameter model specification in hedonic price approach. By using 255,792 transaction data in Seoul, the appraisal-based KB index have appraisal smoothing problems in which they have low volatility and time-lag but the transaction-based price index do not show those problems.

마르코프 국면전환모형을 이용한 부동산 경기변동 분석

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국감정평가학회 2010 감정평가학논집 Vol.9 No.2

This paper is to model changes in regimes by using Seoul apartment sale price indices from December, 2002 to October, 2010. The parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process, which the mean growth rate of a nonstationary series may be subject to occasional, discrete shifts. An empirical application of this technique to apartment sales price indices in Seoul suggests that the periodic shift from a positive growth rate to a negative growth rate is a recurrent feature of apartment sales business cycle. The estimated parameter values suggest that positive and negative growth rates differ across areas and time, implying that the government should take into account in what regime real estate business cycles are when it decides real estate policies. Most areas show large volitilities of real estate business cycles and shorter durations in expansion regimes than in contraction ones. The results also shows the possibility of forecasting the regime switching in the future which is of much interest for real estate market participants.

상태공간모형을 활용한 부동산실거래가격지수 추정에 관한 연구: 거래빈도가 낮은 지역을 중심으로

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ),유은영 ( Eun Young Yoo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2014 不動産學硏究 Vol.20 No.1

This paper estimates the transaction-based real estate price indices for thin markets that have few transactions by using a state space model. The thinness of the market does have a marked effect on the precision of the price index estimate. Since the volitility of the price indices for thin markets estimated by the hedonic price model or repeated- sales model tends to be high, the precision of them is question of our interest. In this paper, we suggest an alternative approach to make stable price indices even when the number of transactions are small or even does not exist. We have developed the transaction-based price indices for the apartment of Gangnam-Gu and Jongno-Gu, Seoul, by using state space models which are estimated by the Kalman filtering and EM(Expectation and Maximization) algorithm. In order to consider the thin markets, we divide housing market by its size: small-sized and medium and large sized apartment. We find that our suggested apartment price indices have lower volatility and much more accurate than the traditional repeated sales indices.

부동산 공간 자료분석에 관한 연구

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국지역사회발전학회 2004 地域社會開發硏究 Vol.29 No.1

지역노동시장의 동학적 조정과정

박헌수(Heon Soo Park) 한국지역개발학회 2001 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.13 No.1

이 논문에서는 Brown et al. (1990)이 제안한 단순지역간 고용모형에 노동자의 공급측면을 추가하여 수요측면과 공급측면의 외부충격(shocks)에 대한 노동시장의 동학적 조정과정을 시뮬레이션 과정을 통해 살펴본다. 이러한 과정을 통해 경제변동에 노동시장의 반응들을 보다 잘 이해하고자 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 주요 연구 결과는 외부충격이 임의보행(random walk)의 경우 지역간 임금수준의 격차에는 단기적으로 영향을 미치는 반면, 지역간 고용수준의 격차에는 장기적으로 영향을 미치게 된다. 이러한 사실은 노동시장에서 시장개입 정책이 지역경제 성장에 매우 중요한 역할을 하는 것을 시사하고 있다.

정신장애인 직업재활 사례연구

박헌수(Heon Soo Park),채인석(In Seok Chae),강지은(Ji Eun Kang) 한국정신건강사회복지학회 2011 정신보건과 사회사업 Vol.37 No.-

본 사례연구는 사회복귀시설에 입소한 30세 남자 정신장애인을 대상으로 2010년 8월부터 10월까지 총 5회에 걸친 직업재활 사례 개입 연구이다. 본 사례연구의 목적은 직업재활 사례관리를 통해 직장 내 적응과 사회적응능력을 향상시켜 경제적으로 자립할 수 있도록 하며 이와 더불어 가족들의 보호부담을 줄이고 클라이언트의 직업에 대한 만족도를 높여 지속적으로 직업유지를 할 수 있도록 하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 다음과 같은 목표를 설정하여 5회에 걸쳐 개입하였다. 첫째, 클라이언트의 직업재활에 대한 욕구를 파악하여 적성에 맞는 직업을 탐색하였다. 둘째, 취업 전 직무지도를 통해 직무능력 습득 및 의욕을 강화하였다. 셋째, 취업 후 지속적인 직무지도를 통해 직무능력을 향상시켜 직업만족도를 높인다. 본 사례연구를 통해서 도출된 결론으로, 정신장애인의 직업재활을 위해 첫째, 직업재활에 대한 욕구를 파악하고 적성에 맞는 직업을 탐색하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 둘째, 사회복지사는 직무지도에 대한 전문성을 갖추어야 한다. 직무지도원의 전문성이 취업률, 직업유지에 영향을 주므로 전문성을 향상시킬 수 있는 현장중심의 교육이 필요하다. 셋째, 정신장애인의 직업적응능력을 향상을 위한 지원 프로그램이 필요하다. 개별상담, 사회기술훈련, 대인관계기술훈련, 직무역량강화프로그램 등이 필요하다. 넷째, 취업 후 사회복지사는 지속적인 직무지도를 통해 정신장애인의 직업적응능력을 향상시키고 직업만족도를 높여서 성공적인 직업유지를 할 수 있도록 노력해야 한다. 따라서 정신장애인의 성공적인 직업재활을 위해 지속적인 사례관리를 통한 직업유지와 자립생활에 대한 지원 계획도 필요함을 인식하게 되었다. The subjects of this case study are mentally injured men in their thirties who are housed in facilities intended for helping them to return to normal life in society, and this study looked at the facilities` vocational rehabilitation programs for a total of five times from August, 2010 till November of the same year. This study has its aim at coming up with ideas on effective vocational rehabilitation programs for the mentally injured people that can help them stand their own feet financially and that help them adapt themselves to their work places and their society despite their physical handicaps. And this study also aims to devise effective ways that can ease their family members` financial burdens and that can increase their satisfaction with their jobs in the hope that their satisfaction with their jobs will surely help them remain on payrolls of their companies. In order to study these, the following goals were established to look at the facilities` vocational rehabilitation programs for a total of five times. First, whether or not the facilities try to develop types of jobs that are suitable with the subjects` aptitudes after finding out their desires regarding their jobs. Second, whether or not the facilities educate them to perform their jobs better before they find employment, and develop any effective education programs that include how to improve their job performance skills and do anything to strengthen the subjects` will to perform their jobs successfully. Third, whether or not they implement any programs that can help the mentally injured people improve their job performance skills by offering job coaching programs continuously even after they find employment and what the facilities do to increase their satisfaction with their jobs. In conclusion, a continual management of cases regarding vocational rehabilitation programs for people with mental disability is absolutely needed and establishment of support programs intended for helping them stand on their own feet financially by helping them stay on their payrolls is also necessary.

거래빈도가 낮은 시장에서의 실거래 부동산 가격지수 작성에 관한 연구 : 강남구를 대상으로

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국부동산분석학회 2007 不動産學硏究 Vol.13 No.3

서울시 아파트가격의 동학적 특성에 관한 연구 주택가격변화의 계열상관과 균형복귀율 추정을 중심으로

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ),유은영 ( Eun Young Yoo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 不動産學硏究 Vol.19 No.4

This research analyzes the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of apartment prices in Seoul by using quarterly time series data from 2006 to 2012. In order to analyze the long-run dynamic characteristics of apartment prices, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, a price adjustment model is built and estimated on the standpoints of serial correlation and mean reversion. In the first-stage of analysis, panel estimation with fixed effects of Gu"" dummy variables fits the data very well and all variables in the equation have the expected signs and are statistically significant at the 5% level. The second-stage of analysis uses the estimates of the equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that house prices exhibit a strong serial correlation with a coefficient of 0.489, and the rate of mean reversion is 0.165. The realizations of the estimated serial correlation and mean reversion are spread over 25 ""Gu"" regions. Sixty-seven percent of observations lie in the no-oscillation and convergent region and another 32.2% falls in the no-oscillation and convergent region which implies that during the sample period in Seoul, the movements of apartment price can be largely explained by the long-run and short-run models, and there have been no sustainable apartment price bubbles.

構造的 VAR模型을 利用한 地域經濟變動 硏究

朴憲守(Park Heon-Soo),曺圭榮(Cho Kyu-Young) 대한국토·도시계획학회 1999 國土計劃 Vol.34 No.4