동북아농정연구포럼(FANEA) 2014 활동보고서

문한필(Moon Han-pil),서대석,유혜영,이정연,임수현 한국농촌경제연구원 2014 한국농촌경제연구원 기타연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

제10회 FANEA 국제심포지엄은 2014년 6월 12일 한국농촌경제연구원 에서 개최하였으며, ‘농업의 6차산업화와 신가치 창출’이라는 주제로 한·중·일 3개국 관련 전문가가 총 6개의 논문을 발표하고 토론하였다. 우리 연구원에서는 최세균 원장을 비롯한 6명이 국제심포지엄에 좌장, 발표자 및 토론자로 참석하였으며, 중국농업과학원 농업경제발전연구소는 친 푸 소장을 포함한 6명, 일본은 농림수산정책연구소 요시무라 카오루 소장을 비롯해 7명이 참석하였다. 특히, 3개 기관은 작년에 ‘한·중·일 농업의 6차산업 활성화 방안’ 연구를 2013년 12월부터 시작해 제10회 FANEA 국제심포지엄 개최 시점인 2014년 6월까지 공동으로 수행하기로 결정하였으며, 이번 심포지엄을 통해 3국의 연구결과를 한 권의 보고서로 출판하였다. 한국, 중국, 일본은 정도와 시기의 차이는 있으나 모두 농촌인구의 감소, 고령화, 도농간 소득격차 심화 등 농촌사회의 부정적 변화가 농촌지역의 활성화에 걸림돌이 되고 있다. 이러한 농촌의 퇴행적 현상을 둔화시키거나 반전시키기 위해서는 농업을 중심으로 한 6차산업화의 추진을 통해 지역경제 활성화와 지역특화산업의 육성을 강화해 나가야 한다는 공감대가 형성되었다. 이러한 문제인식을 바탕으로 이번 FANEA 국제심포지엄은 한·중·일 삼국이 공동연구를 통해 사례를 분석하고, 각국이 안고 있는 정책적 환경을 감안한 활성화 방안을 도출하였으며 이를 공유하는 자리가 되었다. 특히, 각국의 시각을 적용하여 새로운 각도에서 6차산업화 활성화 방안을 마련한 것은 매우 의미있는 작업이었다고 평가된다. 우리나라도 한·중·일 농업·농촌의 6차산업화 관련 지원정책 분석, 3국의 6차산업화 사례분석, 이를 바탕으로 도출된 시사점과 정책과제 등을 통해 국내 6차산업의 활성화 방안을 모색할 수 있을 것으로 본다. 아울러 이러한 공동연구의 성과를 높이 평가한 3개 기관의 기관장들은 이번 심포지엄의 개최 전에, 내년도 심포지엄을 목표로 한 한·중·일 공동연구 추진, 기관 간 연구협력 방안 모색, 인적교류 확대 등에 관해 사전 토의 시간을 가졌으며, 제11회 FANEA 국제심포지엄 테마에 대해서도 논의하였다. 논의 결과, “원격지 개발과 농업정책 평가(Remote Areas Development and Agricultural Policy Assessment)”를 제11회 FANEA 심포지엄의 주요 의제로 설정하기로 잠정 합의하였다. 내년도 FANEA 심포지엄 개최국은 중국으로 여름철 북경 기상여건을 감안하여 해남성 및 운남성을 후보지로 선정하고 구체적인 일정과 장소는 추후에 협의해 나가기로 하였다. 이번 제10회 FANEA 국제심포지엄을 계기로 향후 3개 기관이 공통의 관심사를 주제로 한 공동연구와 비교연구를 적극적으로 추진함으로써 각 기관의 상호 이해 증진과 인적교류 확대, 국제화 역량 강화 및 연계협력 활성화 등에 기여할 수 있기를 기대한다. The 10th FANEA international symposium was held on June 12, 2014 at the Korea Rural Economic Institute. Six papers were presented and discussions ensued among experts from Korea, China and Japan on the theme of “The Sixth Industrialization of Agriculture and the Creation of New Value in the Agricultural Industry.” From the Korean side, President Choi Sei-kyun of the Korea Rural Economic Institute and five researchers from the institute participated in the event as a moderator, a speaker and discussants. China and Japan also took part with six and seven members. Among them were Qin Fu, Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences) and Yoshimura Kaoru, Director General of Japan’s Policy Research Institute (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries). The three institutions decided to perform the joint study on the sixth industrialization of agriculture in Korea, China and Japan from December 2013 to June 2014, and published a report of the three countries’ research results through this symposium. In all the three nations, rural areas’ negative changes, including the aging and decreasing population and the widening urban-rural income gap, have become an obstacle to vitalizing the areas, although the degree and the period are different. To slow or reverse this phenomenon, it was agreed that the revitalization of the regional economy and the development of specialized local industries should be strengthened through the sixth industrialization centered on agriculture. Based on this awareness, the three countries analyzed cases through joint research, drew vitalization plans given each nation’s policy environment, and shared the results in this FANEA symposium. It is especially evaluated to be very meaningful that the sixth industrialization plans were drawn from each nation’s new viewpoint. Korea also seems to be able to seek for ways to invigorate the domestic sixth industry through implications and policy tasks drawn from an analysis of the three countries’ support policies and cases of the sixth industrialization of agriculture and rural areas. Prior to the seminar, the heads of the three institutes who highly appreciated the outcomes of the joint study had discussions on how to conduct joint research and promote research cooperation and human exchanges among them for next year’s symposium. They also had a discussion on the theme of the 11th FANEA symposium and tentatively set the main theme as “Remote Areas Development and Agricultural Policy Assessment.” Next year’s symposium will be hosted in China, and Hainan and Yunnan provinces were selected as candidates given Beijing’s weather conditions in summer. The concrete schedule and venue will be discussed later. The 10th FANEA international symposium is expected to contribute to promoting the three institutes’ increased mutual understanding and personal exchanges and strengthening internationalization capabilities and cooperation by actively conducting joint and comparative studies on the common interests.

한,미 FTA 오렌지 관세인하가 국재 주요 과일 가격에 미치는 영향분석

문한필 ( Han Pil Moon ),이현근 ( Hyun Keun Lee ),박한울 ( Han Ul Park ) 한국농업경제학회 2013 農業經濟硏究 Vol.54 No.1

To analyze the impact of the KORUS FTA on the domestic fruit market, this study conducted a consumer survey on the consumption substitution effects of importing oranges on domestic fruits and estimated the impact of lowering tariffs imported oranges on domestic fruit prices using a simultaneous equation based on monthly import statistics during the main orange-importing period. According to the survey results, it was found that 64% of surveyed consumers could feel the drop in orange prices and one quarter of surveyed consumers increased their purchase of oranges while decreasing their consumption of domestic fruits. Domestic fruits, The prices of domestic fruits increased sharply higher than previous years since the KORUS FTA went into effect, and the main cause this big increase in the price was due to the reduction in supply amount resulting from a bad gravest. The lowering of tariffs for oranges, on the other hand, had the erect of limiting the prices of domestic fruits such as mandarin oranges, oriental melons, strawberries, and cherry tomatoes, The tariff reduction of oranges imported from the U.S. had the effect of lowering the price of lowering the price of mandarin oranges by 10.4% and melons, strawberries, and cherry tomatoes by 3~4%.ln response to the tariff reduction for imported oranges, consumers responded to the overall reduction in welfare by increasing their purchase of imported oranges, On the other hand. The domestic fruit growers who harvest and supply their produce during the orange-importing period suffered a welfare reduction compared to previous years as they failed to sufficiently compensate the sharp drop in supply amount with a price increase.

조사논문 : 한,칠레 FTA 국내대책에 따른 과수농가 생산성 및 효율성 개선 효과 계측

문한필 ( Han Pil Moon ),전익수 ( Ik Su Jun ),김성우 ( Seong Woo Kim ) 한국축산경영학회,농업정책학회(구 한국축산경영학회) 2014 농업경영정책연구 Vol.41 No.4

The purpose of this study is to analyze an economic effect of domestic measures related to Korea-Chile FTA which came into effect in 2004. The empirical analysis was carried out using a non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and a Malmquist productivity index to evaluate the productivity and efficiencies of the farmers during the FTA periods. The farmers in the regions adopting the FTA subsidy retained higher productivity and efficiencies than the farmers in the regions that did not received the subsidy. The result shows that the investment and financial support for Korea-Chile FTA have partly contributed to the increase of competitiveness of the farmers in terms of productivity and efficiency.

농업경영체 등록정보를 이용한 포도와 블루베리의 폐업지원에 따른 작목전환 실태 분석

이현근 ( Lee Hyun-keun ),문한필 ( Moon Han-pil ),명수환 ( Myeong Su-hwan ) 한국식품유통학회 2020 食品流通硏究 Vol.37 No.4

This study investigated the decision-making and crop conversion of beneficiary fruit farmers after applying for the Farm-Closure Assistance(FCA) program using agricultural management registration information. The proportion of converted areas among orchards was 69.4% for field grapes, 44.1% for facility grapes, and 76.4% for blueberries. It implies that the FCA program has played a role of providing restart-up funds to the vulnerable fruit farmers. Other fruits such as peach, plum, grape, and apple are mostly chosen as converting items by the closing farmers. As of 2016, the proportion of the area where items that Farm-Closure Assistance continued to be cultivated in 2019 were 14.4% for field grapes, 15.7% for facility grapes, and 15.6% for blueberries. The percentage of the area where grape cultivation was newly grown in 2019 was 7.2% for field grapes, 10.9% for facility grapes, and 12.7% for blueberries. This study is meaningful in providing implications for overall institutional improvement in order to prevent the balloon effect and moral hazard problem while promoting substantial restructuring of agriculture.

FTA 직접피해보전제도와 미국 농업인 무역조정지원제도의 법･제도적 비교 연구

이현근(Hyun-Keun Lee),문한필(Han-Pil Moon),채상현(Sang-Hyen Chai) 한국농식품정책학회 2019 농업경영정책연구 Vol.46 No.4

The purpose of this study is to provide more accurate information and to seek legal and institutional measures to reduce social controversy and stakeholder conflicts related to FTA Direct Damage Compensation System. For this purpose, the similarities and differences between the US TAAF and Korea s FTA Direct Damage Compensation System were compared and the following implications were drawn. First, it is necessary to alleviate three requirements: total imports, FTA imports, and domestic prices. At the same time, individual farmers eligibility(application conditions) need to impose not only production or sales facts but also conditions that demonstrate the impact of falling prices, so that farmers with substantial income losses can be supported. Second, the HSK code for the analysis of import volume requirements, which is one of the requirements for FTA direct damage compensation, is very important. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the transparency of system operation by specifying the scope of HSK for each item in the law or the enforcement decree in detail. Third, in the case of compensation program for closing, the effect of the closing of a certain item has caused a ballooning effect, such as the increase in the cultivation area of another item of the same category, leading to a price drop. This is a simple aid, and it is impossible to control supply in the medium to long term. Therefore, rather than paying subsidies unconditionally, it is necessary to change the method to pay a certain amount of subsidies depending on whether or not to establish a conversion plan through education and consulting programs. This will free up the WTO regulations on domestic subsidies and effectively support farmers affected by FTA imports.

농가경영형태별 환경효율 비교분석

김은순 ( Uhn Soon Gim ),강상목 ( Sang Mok Kang ),문한필 ( Han Pil Moon ) 한국축산경영학회 2004 농업경영정책연구 Vol.31 No.2

농산물 수출시장 확대 방안 (2/2차연도)

어명근(Myong-Keun Eor),김경필(Kyung-Phil Kim),전형진(Hyoung-Jin Jeon),문한필(Han-Pil Moon),한정희(Jung-Hee Han),이지용(Ji-Yong Lee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

This is the second year report of the two-year collaborative research entitled "A study on the agricultural export promotion strategies", which is led by the Korea Council of Economic and Social Research Institute. The purpose of this study is to establish some effective agricultural export promotion strategies. Various factors that affect Korean agricultural export have been analyzed by the Gravity model and found out GDP of the importing country and spacial distance from Korea were positively related with export amount. Also, government expenditure for export marketing increases agricultural exports. In this study, emerging export markets were classified by four types; growth-potential neighboring market, growth-potential long distance market, hetero-geneous culture market, and fast-growing neighbor market. After selecting export promising product for each type of market, this study established export marketing strategies through the Conjoint Analyses and market-share simulations. Also, this study provided export pricing strategies for each market by the Price Sensitivity Measurement(PSM). As a conclusion, this study provided some measures to expand agricultural export markets as follows; First, organization and collectivization are needed to overcome the limits of small-scale structure of Korean agriculture. Flexible and various rather than uniformed policies should be applied to this process since the environment and conditions are very different according to the farms, products, and the locations. Second, restructuring of agricultural export industry should be enforced by the government and the industry themselves in order to expand export markets. Since the scale of exporting companies are too small to sustain in the market, they can"t establish strong brand power of Korean agricultural products in the overseas market. Through the entry into and exit from the market according to its principle, they need to merge into the large and specialized enterprises. Finally, government export promotion support should be indirect and long-lasting rather than direct and one-time exhausting ones. For example, current expenditure for export logistic would be better to transit to the support for construction of export infrastructure such as cold chain, proccessing facilities, and common warehouse, etc. Support for overseas marketing and buyer invitation costs can also be considered as export infrastructure expenditures which would lead to the self-sustainable exporting farms and company.

중국산 김치 수입과 국산 채소류 가격의 인과관계 분석

이현근 ( Lee Hyun-keun ),석준호 ( Seok Joon-ho ),김상효 ( Kim Sang-hyo ),문한필 ( Moon Han-pil ),채상현 ( Chai Sang-hyen ) 한국식품유통학회 2020 食品流通硏究 Vol.37 No.1

This study investigates the casual relationship between kimchi imports from China, prices of napa cabbage, dried red pepper, garlic, and onion in Korea considering the increase trend of kimchi imports from China. To analyze the level of relative explanation power between kimchi imports and prices of raw materials for kimchi, this paper utilizes the Geweke(1982) method. Furthermore, we also adapt the Directed Acyclic Graph method to capture the contemporaneous causation. While kimchi imports granger cause napa cabbage price, napa cabbage price leads kimchi imports based on the contemporaneous causation concept. Kimchi imports also granger cause prices of dried red pepper and garlic. And this granger causations’ explanation levels on bivariate linear relationship are very high. Our results imply that kimchi imports from China have an impact on kimchi producers and consumers as well as producers for raw materials of kimchi in Korea. In turn, the government should develop the general policy to maintain stability of supply and demand for kimchi’s raw materials.

농업보조금 개편 방안 연구

박성재(Seong-jae Park),박준기(Joon-kee Park),송주호(Ju-ho Song),채광석(Gwang-seok Chae),문한필(Han-pil Moon) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

This study is aimed to suggest how to improve performance and efficiency of government subsidy programs for agricultural sector. More specifically, it is designed to address followings: First, general definition of agricultural support and the classified catalogue of WTO domestic support are reviewed. Second, the current status of agricultural support is examined and a direction of its reform is proposed. Third, an appropriate size of agricultural support is considered. Finally, it suggests ways to revamp direct payments, individual subsidy programs, and the management system of implementing agricultural support, which are major issues in the agricultrual support reform. Agricultural subsidies have brought about a set of positive effects on competitiveness, SOC, R&D, and restructuring in the sector, even though too many subsidy programs, each having different goal and target and inefficiency of their implementation have been pinpointed as shortcomings. However, agricultural subsidies have also produced some adverse effects on the sector. First, they have spurred dependence on government aids and weaken farmers’ ability to stand on their own. Second, problems associated with direct payment are pointed out, including its concentration on rice and paddy field, overproduction of rice, a lack of incentive for upland field corps which are in short of production. Third, the projects as FTA countermeasures have so high portion of support, 74.4% that much concern is being voiced about deepening dependence on government and excess demand for the pojects. Fourth, there exist inefficient factors in the management system of budget and fund. Finally, government-oriented fiscal funds would stand in the way of private investment in agriculture. This study focuses on the reforms of direct payments, individual subsidy programs, and their implementing system. The principle of the reforms is based on the consensus from the ’Committee of Advanced Agriculture and Fishery(2009.07)’. Each subsidy program is reconsidered to determine whether it should be abolished, be integrated with other program, be changed to loan program, or be adjusted with lower share of support, and so on. In this stage, the reform of agricultural direct payments would be conducted focusing on the modification of rice direct payment. In order to mitigate overproduction of rice, the variable payment needs to be coupled with production costs. The newly discussed public-service direct payment is not widely shared opinions yet and would be difficult in securing enough fund for implementation. However, in the near future when further opening of domestic agriculture starts to lower profitability of upland crops, a comprehensive reform of agricultural direct payments will be required.