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Comparison of the WSA-ENLIL CME propagation model with three cone types and an empirical model
장수정,문용재,나현옥,Jang, Soojeong,Moon, Yong-Jae,Na, HyeonOck 한국천문학회 2012 天文學會報 Vol.37 No.2
We have made a comparison of the WSA-ENLIL CME propagation model with three cone types and an empirical model using 29 halo CMEs from 2001 to 2002. These halo CMEs have cone model parameters from Michalek et al. (2007) as well as their associated interplanetary (IP) shocks. For this study we consider three different cone models (an asymmetric cone model, an ice-cream cone model and an elliptical cone model) to determine CME cone parameters (radial velocity, angular width and source location), which are used for input parameters of the WSA-ENLIL CME propagation model. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the arrival times at the Earth for the elliptical cone model is 10 hours, which is about 2 hours smaller than those of the other models. However, this value is still larger than that (8.7 hours) of an empirical model by Kim et al. (2007). We are investigating several possibilities on relatively large errors of the WSA-ENLIL cone model, which may be caused by CME-CME interaction, background solar wind speed, and/or CME density enhancement.
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이강진,문용재,이진이,이경선,나현옥,김해연,신대윤,Lee, Kangjin,Moon, Yong-Jae,Lee, Jin-Yi,Lee, Kyoung-Sun,Na, Hyeonock,Kim, Haeyeon,Shin, Dae-Yun 한국천문학회 2012 天文學會報 Vol.37 No.2
We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive eleven sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.
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Scientific Perspectives of the Heliophysics L4 Mission by Remote-Sensing Observations
문용재,조경석,박성홍,임은경,김록순,송동욱,박종엽,박은수,이하림,정현진,강지혜,박진혜,이강우,조일현,나현옥 한국천문학회 2024 Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society Vol.57 No.1
The Sun-Earth Lagrange point L4, which is called a parking space of space, is considered one of the unique places where solar activity and the heliospheric environment can be observed continuously and comprehensively. The L4 mission affords a clear and wide-angle view of the Sun-Earth line for the study of Sun-Earth connections from remote-sensing observations. The L4 mission will significantly contribute to advancing heliophysics science, improving space weather forecasting capability, extending space weather studies far beyond near-Earth space, and reducing risk from solar radiation hazards on human missions to the Moon and Mars. Our paper outlines the importance of L4 observations by using remote-sensing instruments and advocates comprehensive and coordinated observations of the heliosphere at multi-points including other planned L1 and L5 missions. We mainly discuss scientific perspectives on three topics in view of remote sensing observations: (1) solar magnetic field structure and evolution, (2) source regions of geoeffective solar energetic particles (SEPs), and (3) stereoscopic views of solar corona and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
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