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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : 김현실 ( Hyun Shil Kim ) (검색결과 3 건)
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김현실 ( Hyun Shil Kim ),안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2005 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.6 No.1
Although the generation market is competitive, the power market is easily exercised the market power by one generator due to its special futures such as a limited supplier, large investment cost, transmission constraints and loss. Specially, as Korea Electric industry restructuring is similar US competitive wholesale electricity market structure which discovered the several evidences of market power abuse, when restructuring is completed the possibility that market power will be exercised is big. Market power interferes with market competitions and efficiency of system. The goal of this study is to investigate the market price effects of the potential market power and the proposed market power mitigation strategy in Korean market using the forecasting wholesale electricity market model. This modeling is developed based on the system dynamics approach. it can analyze the dynamic behaviors of wholesale prices in Korean market. And then it is expanded to include the effect of market condition changed by "strategic behavior" and "real time pricing." This model can generate the overall insights regarding the dynamic impact of output withholding by old gas fire power plant known as a marginal plant in Korean market at the macro level. Also it will give the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future for deregulated wholesales market in Korea.
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System Dynamics에 의한 발전설비투자 모델개발 및 행태 분석
金賢實(Hyun-Shil Kim),尹用範(Yong-Beum Yoon) 대한전기학회 2007 전기학회논문지 Vol.56 No.10
The Korea electricity wholesale market is operated under the cost-based-pool system and the government regulation to the new generation capacities in order to insure the resource adequacy. The goal of government's regulation is the electricity market stability by attracting proper generation investment while keeping the reliability of system. Generation companies must mandatory observe that government plan by now. But if the restructuring is to be complete, generation companies should not bear any obligation to invest unless their profitability is guaranteed. Namely the investors' behavior will be affected by the market prices. In this paper, the system dynamics model for Korea wholesale electricity market to examine whether competitive market can help to stabilize is developed and analyzes the investors behavior. The simulation results show that market controlled by government will be operated stable without resulting in price spike but there is no lower price because of maintaining the reasonable reserve margin. However, if the competition is introduced and the new investment is determined by the investor's decision without government intervention, the benefits from lower wholesale price are expected. Nevertheless, the volatility in the wholesale market increases, which increases the investment risks
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신재생에너지 보급량 예측을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모델 개발
김현실 ( Hyun Shil Kim ),고경호 ( Kyung Ho Ko ),안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ),조병옥 ( Byung Oke Cho ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2006 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.7 No.2
Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government`s incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.
ScienceON
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