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      • 韓國의 證券市場의 株價變動에 關한 技術的 分析 : 投資指標의 圖解를 中心으로

        宋錫勳 慶尙大學校 1981 論文集 Vol.20 No.2

        The difference between investment and speculation is only a matter of degree of risk. But modern world is an exceedingly complex and dynamic one in which many forces affect the value and productivity of investments. Careful investors try to identify these forces and profit from them, if they can, or at least avoid losses from them. The business risks inherent in the enterprise naturally fall with full force on the stock holder who bears them because he may also hope for the extraordinary gains which success may bring him. The market risk i obviously high in stock ownership. In fact the stock market is notorious for wide and almost irrational variation in stock prices. Although careful investors find it convenient to sellect stocks for investment by comparing price-earnings ratio, yields, and asset values per share in the light of available information on quality, growth, and market factors, many investors as usual seem more concerned with the volatile behavior of stock prices than with the normal values the stocks represent. These market factors are put emphasis on by the technical analysts, even if the fundamental analysts lay stress on the internal value of a business. There is quite possibly some truth in each creed. As a matter of fact, vertical-bar, point&figure and line charts on either arithmetic or semilogarithmic scales are widely used by all types of investors and speculators. They can depict the trends of earnings, dividends, stock prices, short interest, or any other factors capable of numerical expression. The analysis reported here is a study on the nature and forecasting of stock price movements in the Korea stock market. The method in this analysis was to compare the graphic techniques of a few investment indexes with the degree of bullishness or bearishness in the Korea stock market, from 1972 until about 1980. In this paper the best-known investment indexes adapted for the technical analysis were Korea composite stock price indexes(day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month), volume of trading stocks, key statistics for listed stocks, and Korea stock market indicators: on-balance volume, advance-decline line, moving average line, ratios of day-to-day indexes to 25 or 75 days average indexes of composite stock prices, and ratio of money loans to stock loans, etc. According to applying these indexes or indicators in the Korea stock market, the results of technical analysis suggested the following conclusions to us. First, in vertical-bar charts distribution patterns have shown clearly within 1-2 months upper sloping up, but they have been ambiguous for long-term up trends in stock prices. Second, moving average long term lines have represented in the capacity of warning indexes at peaks and troughs pretty clearly rather than vertical-bar charts. Third, ratios of day-to-day indexes to 25 or 75 days average indexes of composite stock prices have been correct to predict timing of distribution or accumulation better than any other indexes. From August, 1979 until July, 1980, these correct predictions were 11 reversal points through 25 days average, 5 reversal points through 75 days average. Fourth, since advance-decline line has been moving almost similar with stock price fluctuations, it couldn't be drawn respecting the extent and timing of market changes. Fifth, looking into the relationship of volume of trading stocks, stock price movements, and unbalance volume, they have indicated manipulative short-term phenomena in accumulation and distribution. And also because volume of trading stocks has been the increase in the Korea stock market, OBV analysis could be used appropriately in forecasting only a stable and individual short-term stock price movement but a general long-term trend. Sixth, ratio of money loans to stock loans couldn't be made practical application of significant indexes on account of unbalance between money loans and stock loans in the Korea stock market. Seventh, there was the intermediate-term tendency, presumably conforming to business cycle stages in normal times, for the market to move in a general upward or downward direction for 3 years to 4 years at a time. Bull markets appeared in 1972-1973(July), 1974(October)-1976(January) and 1977(July)-1978(August), bear markets appeared in 1973(July)-1974(October), 1976(January)-1977(July) and 1978(August)-1981. Therefore, we have to grasp stock market movements through technical analysis in relation to fundamental analysis. That's we have to carefully determine what to select and when to buy or sell in considering all the following factors-stock market credit conditions, speculative psychology, changes in the tax laws, labor legislation, foreign relations, the distribution of national income, the level of prosperity, etc-which affect the supply and demand for all stocks. Particularly, in technical analysis stock price movements could be forecasted correctly by grasping all the investment indexes and indicators totally, systematically and synthetically.

      • 組織·環境關係의 理論에 對한 個體群 生態學 模形의 考察

        宋錫勳 慶尙大學校 1985 論文集 Vol.24 No.2

        This paper takes account not only of the internal influence of organizations but also the forces in their environments that set limits to the organizational discretion, for the purpose of developing the population ecology model systematically and supporting the theory construction of organization -environment relationships. Therefore, this paper surveys literature in' reference to the model. The applied orientation of humanist social psychologists of the 1950s, and the glorification of management implied in the equally functionalist open-systems view-point which dominated the late 1960s and the 1970s, give way to some degree under the weight of the population ecology model. In the conventional view there are three main subjects: people, organizations, and environments. In the population ecology model a fourth subject is added: organizational populations. The model rooted on the evolution, especially reform Darwinism. The model provides a comprehensive framework within which the organizational change and persistence can be studied, calling on attention to a level of analysis often overlooked in traditional approaches. The model explains the organizational change by examining the nature and distribution of resources in organizations' environmrather than on internal problems. Studying variations over time in organizational forms requnot only longitudinal research designs but also knowledge of historical trends and changes in political systems, modes of the economic production, law, patterns of international trade, and other topics often neglected in the traditional view-point. Investigators using the population ecology model cannot avoid dealing with the societal context within which organizations are created, survive or fail, and rise to prominence or sink into obscurity. In this paper the model is analyzed and put in order by deviding into three elements: variation, selection, retention.

      • 人力效用을 爲한 勞動移動의 多次元的인 統制方案

        宋錫勳 慶尙大學校 1982 論文集 Vol.21 No.3

        Labor turnover is inevitable or desirable to some degree. But excessive turnover is wasteful in money, human values, and friction within and between business organizations, and insufficient turnover can sap its vitality and stultify the needs of individual members. Excessive or insuffcient turnover represents not only a loss to the employer but also is often a loss to the worker or society as a whole. The purposes of the present research are to analyze the causes and problems of turnover(accession and separation) in conjunction with several personal characteristics(age, education, and tenure, etc) and to design more effective control policies and practices of turnover. To achieve the purposes of this paper, I used some existing data and interviews. So the results are as follows in Korea. First, in depression turnover rates have been generally lower and separation rates have been relatively higher than accession rates. Therefore I could forcast shortage of man-power in prosperity and unemployment in depression. Second, age has demonstrated fairly consistent negative relationships with turnover, but education was expected to relate positively to voluntary turnover. Third, as one is in and organization longer, one is less likely to leave voluntarily. But within two years almost workers have separated and organization because of inadequacy and dissatisfaction. Fourth, nepotism could be a matter of difficulty, because a large percentage of employees have been entered profession by a relative. For the reasons mentioned above, I considered multi-dimensional counterplans to control turnover effectively. They are divided according to fields of problems. In business organization it's important to apply HRA for getting out of nepotism and laying stress on performance and also improve QWL for maintenance of competent-man-power. And then it's increasingly necessary that employer put to the multilateral tests for selection before applying the age-limit system in order to eliminate incompetent-man-power. Socially, employment security offices have to be closely connected with business organizations and workers to reduce normal unemployment, and they have to be done with training and development agencies to meet technical or structural unemployment. Moreover it's necessary to implement unemployment insurance not only to stirup the consciousness of coexistence and coprosperity between society, enterprises and workers but also th get rid of unemployment and utilize manpower. Systematically enterprises have to send information of man-power plan to employment security agencies that ought to function as lease systems of man-power, and if there were technical gaps between supply and demand of man-power they would have to coordinate the gaps with the agencies in charge of training and development. Therefore all the agencies and departments of business organization, with relation to demand and supply of man-power, would keep in close relationship reciprocally and cooperate each other to control effectively as a whole, synthetically, and multidimensionally.

      • 作業動機賦與에 對한 職務特性 Model

        宋錫勳 慶尙大學校 1984 論文集 Vol.23 No.2

        The purpose of the present study is to experience firsthand the job characteristics approach to job design, in this case through the Hackman-Oldham Job Diagnostic Survey and get personal feedback on the motivating potential of individual present of past job and identify and compare its critical characteristics. the job characteristic model proposed by Hackman and Oldham focuses on five core job dimensions that are hypothesized to be related to key psychological states and to various personal and work outcomes. The major focus of the model concerns dynamic relationships among objective job characterics, perceptions of chacteristics, and job-related attitudes and behaviors. In this paper the theoretical background of job design is considered before hypotheses, and then the job characteristic model is analyzed emprically by the results of questionaire method. The results were indicated as follows. First, individuals who describe their jobs with high MPS were proved to display high job satisfaction, high job performance, high job involvement, and to report low trunover. Second, high growth need individuals tended to respond to cues provided by their enlarged jobs and organic organizational cues. Third, if the employees had high growth needs, their job satisfaction, job performance, job involvement were higher than low growth need employees, and their turnover rates were inverse. Fourth the relation and responses were almost waving or inter-independent in the environmental or demographic factors and job characteristic model related variables of outcome variables. These hypothpotheses were analyzed through not only convenience samping but also only questionaire method. Therefore the various research methods should be randomly applied to broader subjects for increasing generalizability of the results.

      • KCI등재

        응급실에서 급성 췌장염 환자의 선별을 위한 actim pancreatitisR검사의 유용성

        송석훈,도병수,이삼범 대한응급의학회 2001 대한응급의학회지 Vol.12 No.4

        Background: Acute pancreatitis is a fairly common abdominal disorder that can be easily confronted in the emergency department(ED) and is one of the most complex and clinically challenging of all abdominal disorders. Currently, there is no gold standard for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. We evaluated the usefulness of the actim Pancreatitis□ rapid test, which has been recently developed in Europe, as a screening test of acute pancreatitis in our emergency department. Methods: We prospectively studied the urinary trypsinogen-2 dipstick tests(actim Pancreatitis□, Medix Biochemica, Kauniainen, Finland) of 200 patients with acute abdominal pain who were treated at our ED. All urine samples were collected from the patients within 12 hours of arrival at ED. We also measured serum amylase assay in the laboratory and compared the sensitivities and the specificities of the two test. Acute pancreatitis was diagnosed by authors according to standardized criteria. Abdominal USG or CT was performed when a patient with a normal serum amylase level had a typical clinical presentation. Results: The actim Pancreatitis□ rapid test was positive in 22 of the 25 patients with acute pancreatitis(sensitivity, 88.0 percent). The test was also positive in 6 of 175 patients without pancreatitis(specificity, 96.6 percent). The serum amylase assay had a sensitivity of 68.0 percent(with a cutoff value of 300 U per liter for the upper reference limit) and a specificity of 90.9 percent. But there were no statistical differences between the correlation coefficients of the two tests as diagnostic tool Conclusion: In patients with acute abdominal pain who are seen in the emergency department, the actim Pancreatitis□ urinary dipstick test has a high degree of probability as a screening test for acute pancreatitis. Also it can easily and rapidly be use at the bedside.

      • Leadership 유형의 이론에 관한 고찰

        송석훈 경상대학교 경남문화연구소 1981 慶南文化硏究 Vol.4 No.1

        1. Introduction Leadership styles directly affect an organization's climate. Leadership is a behavioral process performed by leaders who are human beings who steer and guide the efforts of other human beings. Chronologically, early management theorists emphasized traits, whereas modern theories of leadership stress the situational approach, because it incorporates and then explain systematically the directing function in terms of traits of the leader, characteristics of the followers, characteristics of the task, characteristics of the organization, and characteristics of the external environment. In this study the main purpose is to suggest the determination process of the effective leadership styles through analyzing anal synthesizing leadership styles sysematically on the basis of mangerial philosophies and situational approaches. 2. Leadership styles Managerial philosophies and leadership styles explain established leadership relations. Particularly, leadership style refers to a manager's specific mode, fashion, and distinctive manner of administrative performance and conduct. McGregor's theoryX represents the old authoritarian style and his theory Y represents the enlightened, humanistic style of leadership. Argyris's immaturity-maturity model of personality is specifically directed to the study and analysis of organizational behavior, and his value systems or his behavior patterns(A&B) are related to theories X and Y. Blake and Mouton's managerial grid idea is a better concept then McGregor's theories X and Y, because theories X and Y are usually associated, perhaps mistakenly, with only a concern for production or people, but the management grid concept vividly points out that is not an either-or situation. Blake and Mouton grid identifies the style of a manager but does not directly relate it to effectiveness. Reddin has added the third dimension of effectiveness to his model. It is emphasized that leadership styles per se can be effective or ineffective depending on the situation. Hersey and Blanchard also incorporate all three theoretical bases (leader, follower, and environment) and stresses that the leader should have an adaptive style that leads to effectiveness. Fiedler developed not only a unique operational technique to measure leadership style but also what he called a contingency model of leadership effectiveness. This model contained the relationship between leadership style and the favorableness of the situation: the leader-member relationship, the degree of task structure, the leader's position power. Likert has proposed four basic systems or styles of organizational leadership. Davis also attempted to synthesize and integrate much of the current management literature pertaining to leadership styles into a fourfold classification system. None of these approaches spell out exactly low a leader should act or what decision should be made in given situation. Vroom and Yetton attempted to provide a specific, normative model through applying decision tree that a leader could actually use in making effective decisions. Many other leadership style classification systems exit, but they are either more dated, not as comprehensive, or less popular than the proceeding styles. Variations in managerial philosophies and leadership styles exist both theoretically and operationally. A more and more popular practical suggestion today is that a leader should adapt and alter his leadership style and probably even his managerial philosophy if the situation dictates such a change. 3. Conclusion In this study, the results of leadership styles analysis suggest the following conclusions to us. First, leadership theories have been developed from trait theory to situational theory. Second, leadership styles have been expanded from closed system to open system by the limit of application. Third, leadership styles should be studied from single dimension to multiple dimensions. Fourth, leadership styles should be understood by the interrelated set-systems of continuum. Fifth, leadership styles should be determined by the simultaneous consideration of decision quality and subordinate acceptance. Therefore, the determination process of leadership styles on the basis of the synthetic, situational theory, could be suggested as the following figure. Leader, chief, colleague, follower, organization-task and external environment are interrelated factors of contingent leadership. The systems approach to the determination process of the effective leadership styles should be thought as an integration of these factors. As shown in figure, these contingent leadership causes are seen as collective inputs that interact in a systematic framwork of objective, function, structure and wholeness to produce effective leadership styles. The systems interaction set framework is the area in which these causes overlap, intermingle, and become synthesized to collectively produce effective leadership outputs. [Determination process of the effective leadership styles] ※그림※

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