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기후변화에 따른 주요 벼 병해충에 의한 벼 생산의 취약성평가
김명현 ( Myung Hyun Kim ),방혜선 ( Hea Son Bang ),나영은 ( Yung Eun Na ),김미란 ( Mi Ran Kim ),오영주 ( Young Ju Oh ),강기경 ( Kee Kyung Kyung ),조광진 ( Kwang Jin Cho ) 한국환경복원기술학회 2013 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.16 No.1
Rice is a main crop and rice field is the most important farmland in Korea. This study was conducted to propose the methodology assessing impact and vulnerability on rice production by climate change at the regional and national level in Korea. We evaluated a vulnerability of rice paddy according to the outbreak of a main disease and pest of a rice plant. As results, Jeju-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollanam-do were more vulnerable area than others. In contrast, the southern central region including Gyeonggi-do was less vulnerable than others, The vulnerable index was significantly higher in 2050s (0.5589) than in present (0.3500). This result showed that the vulnerable to the disease and pest enlarge in the future, The adaptive capacity highly contributed to the vulnerability assessment index. The daily maximum temperature of June and the daily average temperature from May to August also contributed the climate exposure index. The area of occurring sheath blight, rice leaf blast and striped rice borer was related to the system sensitivity index. The ability of water supply (readjustment area of arable land per paddy field area) and rice production technique (rice yield per hectare) were the highly contributed variables to the adaption capacity index.