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Gang Zeng,Wei-Chyung Wang,Caiming Shen,Zhixin Hao 한국기상학회 2014 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.50 No.3
We present a study of summer precipitation changes overthe Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and North China (NC) simulatedfrom 20 models of the CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject). It is found that the LASG-FGOALS-g1.0 (fgoals)model has the highest ability in simulating both the interannualvariability of individual regions and the seesaw pattern of the tworegions observed during the past few decades. Analyses of atmosphericcirculations indicate that the variability in precipitation isclosely associated with the 850 hPa meridional winds over the tworegions. Wetness in the YRV and dryness in NC are corresponding tostrong meridional wind gradient and weak meridional wind overthese two regions, respectively. The ability of a coupled generalcirculation model (CGCM) to simulate precipitation changes in theYRV and NC depends on how well the model reproduces bothobserved associations of precipitation with overlying meridionalwinds and observed meridional wind features in summer. Analysis offuture precipitation changes over the two regions projected by thefgoals model under the IPCC scenarios B1 and A1B suggests asignificant increase of 7-15% for NC after 2040s due to thestrengthened meridional winds, and a slight increase over the YRVdue to less significant intensification of the Mei-yu front.