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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Caiming Shen (검색결과 2 건)
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Youbing Peng,Hai Cheng,Caiming Shen,Ying Xu,Naifang Bei 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.3
Widely distributed proxy records show that there were out-of-phase behaviors of moisture change between arid central Asia (ACA) and monsoonal northern China during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). We examined spatial pattern differences between the MCA and LIA to identify contrasting patterns of summer precipitation variability, and to diagnose explanatory mechanisms through the analysis of a 1000-year global climate model simulation driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing. The results show that the model was able to roughly produce the general features of MCA-LIA hydroclimatic spatial differences between monsoonal northern China and ACA, with a relatively wet MCA found in monsoonal northern China and a relatively dry MCA found in ACA. A further analysis of associated circulations shows that increased summer precipitation in monsoonal northern China was caused by the strengthening of summer monsoon, while the decline in summer precipitation in ACAwas caused by an anomalous northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet stream. Our analyses suggest that both effective solar forcing and El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may produce these contrasting patterns of precipitation between monsoonal northern China and ACA. Due to a change in the probability of ENSO phases at the centennial time scale found in our experiments may be attributed to solar irradiances, higher effective solar irradiances during the MCA relative to those of the LIA may have been the ultimate forcing mechanism for the simulated precipitation differences between the MCA and LIA.
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Gang Zeng,Wei-Chyung Wang,Caiming Shen,Zhixin Hao 한국기상학회 2014 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.50 No.3
We present a study of summer precipitation changes overthe Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and North China (NC) simulatedfrom 20 models of the CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject). It is found that the LASG-FGOALS-g1.0 (fgoals)model has the highest ability in simulating both the interannualvariability of individual regions and the seesaw pattern of the tworegions observed during the past few decades. Analyses of atmosphericcirculations indicate that the variability in precipitation isclosely associated with the 850 hPa meridional winds over the tworegions. Wetness in the YRV and dryness in NC are corresponding tostrong meridional wind gradient and weak meridional wind overthese two regions, respectively. The ability of a coupled generalcirculation model (CGCM) to simulate precipitation changes in theYRV and NC depends on how well the model reproduces bothobserved associations of precipitation with overlying meridionalwinds and observed meridional wind features in summer. Analysis offuture precipitation changes over the two regions projected by thefgoals model under the IPCC scenarios B1 and A1B suggests asignificant increase of 7-15% for NC after 2040s due to thestrengthened meridional winds, and a slight increase over the YRVdue to less significant intensification of the Mei-yu front.
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