通貨政策의 構造變更에 관한 硏究

李明薰 明知大學校 經濟硏究所 1997 경영연구 Vol.15 No.1

Ⅰ. 머리말 Ⅱ. 통화증시 통화정책하의 중심통화지표의 선택 Ⅲ. 금리증시 통화정책으로서의 전환 Ⅳ. 맺음말

Monetary Policy and Reputation

Yi, Myung Hoon 明知大學校 經濟硏究所 1996 경영연구 Vol.13 No.1

통화정책이 실물경제에 미치는 효과를 분석하는 데 있어서 게임이론적인 분석방법을 원용함으로써 소위 재량(discretion)과 준칙(rule)의 논쟁은 새로운 국면을 맞이하게 되었다. 초기의 이론에서는 Friedman의 k% 준칙과 같이 준칙의 준수를 위해 법적 강제가 요구되기도 하였으나 통화정책을 게임이론적으로 접근함에 따라 준칙의 준수를 통화당국의 성가(reputation)에 의존할 수 있는 이론적 기틀이 마련되었다. 이에 본 논문은 통화수량설과 합리적 기대하에서 통화당국이 성가(reputation)를 중요하게 고려한다는 관점에서 통화정책게임의 trigger 전략균형과 sequential 균형모형을 비교, 분석함과 동시에 양 균형이 성립하는 과정에서 시간할인율의 역할을 강조하고자 하였다. 먼저 완전한 정보(complete information)하에서 물가안정과 경제성장을 동시에 추구하는 정책당국과 자연률(natural rate) 가설하에서 물가안정만을 추구하는 민간이 무한시계(infinite horizon)에 걸쳐서 통화정책게임을 반복한다고 설정해보자. 이 때 Barro와 Gordon(1983b)과는 달리, 무한대 또는 복수기간의 처벌기간(punishment)을 도입하면 시간할인율이 어떤 특정한 값보다 클 때 실제 인플레이션이 적정인플레이션과 일치하는 이상적 준칙(ideal rule)이 성립됨을 보였으며 이 때 비협력적 결과(noncooperative outcome)인 재량과 이상적 결과인 준칙 사이에 존재하는 소위 협력적 결과(cooperative outcome)가 실현 가능하도록 보장해 주는 최소처벌기간을 도출할 수 있었다. 즉, 최소처벌기간은 정책당국이 근시안적일수록 또는 협력적 결과와 비협력적 결과의 격차가 클수록 최소처벌기간이 길어져야 함을 보였다. 한편 완전한 정보하의 통화정책게임의 기본적 결과는 불완전한 정보(incomplete information)하에서도 그대로 적용이 된다는 것을 보였는데 이 경우에는 player의 payoff가 불확실하기 때문에 이를 확률적인 틀로 분석해야 된다는 점이 완전한 정보하의 통화정책게임과의 차이점이다. 다음으로 정책당국과 민간이 유한시계(finite horizon)에 걸쳐서 통화정책게임을 반복한다고 설정해보자. 유한시계의 통화정책게임에서는 마지막 기간에는 다음기를 염두에 둘 필요가 없다는 것이 무한시계의 통화정책게임과 가장 뚜렷한 차이이다. sequential 균형모형에 시간할인율을 도입하면 Backus와 Driffill(1985) 모형의 균형은 역시 시간할인율이 어떤 특정한 값보다 클 때만 성립됨을 보였다. 그리고 상기 모형에 사적 정보(private information)을 도입하면 양 player의 payoff가 불확실성의 크기에 의존하기 때문에 인플레이션의 동태적 과정은 확률적인 가설검정의 관점에서 파악해야 잘 설명될 수 있음을 보였다.

Does Government`s R&D Expenditure Stimulate Economic Growth in China?

( Myung Hoon Yi ),( Jai S. Mah ) 한양대학교 경제연구소 2017 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.22 No.2

Since its economic reform in the late 1970s, China has recorded a very rapid economic growth rate. In the meantime, the Chinese government has actively pursued R&D-promotion policies. Using time series data over the period 1982-2010, this paper applies smallsample cointegration tests, OLS and GMM estimations, and Granger causality tests to reveal the determinants of China`s rapid economic growth. We find that the government`s R&D expenditures have had a positive effect on and causes economic growth in the Granger sense. In contrast, investment, the trade dependence ratio, and the inflation rate have not caused economic growth. Our results show that China`s remarkable economic growth since the 1980s can be explained by the R&D-based endogenous-growth theory.

THE EXCESS OF CONSUMPTION GROWTH

YI, MYUNG HOON 한국경제학회 1996 The Korean Economic Review Vol.12 No.1

Causality in the Saving-Growth Nexus

Myung Hoon Yi,Yung Y. Yang 이화여자대학교 이화사회과학원 2014 사회과학연구논총 Vol.30 No.1

Utilizing test procedures based on the notion of control causality and test procedure for superexogeneity, we examine the causal relationship between saving rate and economic growth using the annual time-series data for five developed countries. Our results provide empirical evidence that for four out of five countries economic growth control causes saving, but the reverse is not true. Policy implication of our finding is that since economic growth drives saving rates, rather the other way around, priorities should be given to policies to foster economic growth via raising investment growth and improve efficiency of such investment.

R&D Expenditure, International Trade and Economic Growth: Korea’s Experience

Myung-Hoon Yi,Jai-Shin Mah 한국유통과학회 2016 유통과학연구 Vol.14 No.3

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to investigate whether Korea’s economic growth can be explained by the endogenous growth theory. Specifically, we test whether R&D expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth. Research design, data, and methodology – We hypothesize that R&D expenditure has a positive effect on the economic growth after adding control variables in the growth equation. Korean annual data from 1963 to 2011 from Science and Technology Annual of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, the Bank of Korea, etc. are used. We estimate the growth equation by GMM in addition to OLS. Results – We found that R&D expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth after adding the ratio of investment to GDP, the ratio of FDI to GDP, the ratio of government expenditure to GDP, inflation and the ratio of trade openness to GDP as control variables in the growth equation. Conclusions – Our results show that Korea’s rapid economic growth for the past five decades can be explained by the R&D-based endogenous economic growth theory. Our results suggest that the policy attention of the Korean government be paid to R&D promotion.

Impact of Topsoil Stockpiling Methods on the Viability of Seed Banks

( Myung-hoon Yi ) 한국환경과학회 2018 한국환경과학회지 Vol.27 No.10

The aim of this study was to determine the appropriate stockpiling methods for revegetation by comparing the germination status of seed banks before and after preservation for 2 years. Soil temperature in stockpiled topsoil was higher in open treatment and at 1.5 m, whereas soil water content was maintained at lower levels (14.06-19.08%), than those in the control group. The seed banks in stockpiled topsoil had 48 species and 1,559 individuals, among which perennials showed the highest number in terms of life forms, whereas Compositae and Gramineae were dominant in terms of families. Based on seed bank type, persistent seed banks had the highest number of species, while transient seed banks had the highest number of individuals. By stockpiling period, the number of species in the seed bank started to increase after 24 months, while the number of individuals began increasing after 12 months and exceeded that of the control group after 24 months. Regarding the treatment of stockpiling methods, the number of species and individuals in open treatment were closer to those of the control group. When analyzed by height, the number of species and individuals were higher at 0 m, but still lower than those of the control group. A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) showed that the optimal combination was obtained in open treatment and the number of individuals increased with the lengthening of the stockpiling period.

Causality in the Saving-Growth Nexus : Empirical Evidence from Five Developed Countries

Yi, Myung Hoon,Yang, Yung Y. 이화여자대학교 사회과학연구소 2014 사회과학연구논총 Vol.30 No.1

Utilizing test procedures based on the notion of control causality and test procedure for superexogeneity, we examine the causal relationship between saving rate and economic growth using the annual time-series data for five developed countries. Our results provide empirical evidence that for four out of five countries economic growth control causes saving, but the reverse is not true. Policy implication of our finding is that since economic growth drives saving rates, rather the other way around, priorities should be given to policies to foster economic growth via raising investment growth and improve efficiency of such investment.

Optimizing Consumer and Excess Sensitivity

Myung Hoon Yi 서울대학교 경제연구소 1994 Seoul journal of economics Vol.7 No.4

We show that with the non-expected utility model of Epstein and Zin(1989, 1991) the excess sensitivity of consumption can be explained theoretically from the optimizing behavior through the market portfolio which includes the return on human capital. Also, using Farmer's (1990) model where stochastic income is explicitly included and risk is neutral, we show that the excess sensitivity of consumption to income is the prediction of the model through nonzero terms of human and nonhuman wealth in the stochastic process of consumption.

소나무림 매토종자 최소생존가능개체군에 관한 연구

이명훈 ( Myung-hoon Yi ) 한국환경생태학회 2018 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.32 No.5

본 연구는 매토종자를 활용한 소나무림 생태복원 시 적정 매토종자 최소생존가능개체군의 크기를 확인하기 위해 2010년 8월부터 2011년 11월까지 매토종자 발아실험을 실시하였다. 상관관계분석 결과, 면적과 초본 종수가 0.686으로 가장 높게 나타났다. 도서생물지리학의 이론에 따라 최소생존가능개체군에 적용하여 면적과 유의성이 있는 네 변수에 대해 회귀분석을 한 결과 목본 종수, 목본 개체수, 초본 종수 및 초본 개체수 모두 5% 이내에서 유의하며, 회귀함수의 설명력은 58.3%였다. 종수와 개체수간의 정준상관분석 결과 한 개의 함수가 유의하였으며 함수의 설명력은 82.4%이고, 유의수준 1% 이내에서 정준함수의 정준근 모두 유의한 것으로 판단된다. 연구 결과, 소나무림 매토종자 최소생존가능 개체군의 크기는 면적 64m²이상, 종수 21종 이상, 개체수 120개체 이상을 권장하며 초본 종수의 영향에 따라 매토종자군집의 크기가 결정되는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 매토종자를 활용한 소나무림 생태복원의 적용 시 초본 종에 대한 고려가 필요하다. The purpose of this study was to investigate the proper minimum viable population of a seed bank for the ecological restoration of pine forest using a seed bank. It examined the germinated soil seed bank from August 2010 to November 2011. The results of the correlation analysis showed that the area and the number of herbaceous species were the highest at 0.686. The results of the regression analysis of four variables including the number of woody species, the number of woody individuals, the number of herbaceous species, and the number of herbaceous individuals using the theory of island biogeography to the minimum viable population in studied plots showed that all four variables were significant with area at the level of 0.05, and R square was 0.583. One function was selected between the number of species and the number of individuals from the canonical correlation analysis, and the function square was 0.824. Both canonical function and squared canonical correlation showed significant at the level of 0.01. The result of study recommended the area size of the minimum viable population in pine forest applied by seed bank to be larger than 64m², the number of species to be over 21, and the number of population to be over 120. It also found that the number of herbaceous species determined the cluster size of the seed bank. Therefore, it is necessary to consider herbaceous species that appear in the seed bank.