한국의 산업별·자산별 자본스톡추계(1953~2000)

表鶴吉 한국금융연구원 2003 韓國經濟의 分析 Vol.9 No.1

우리나라는 1968년 제1차 국부통계조사를 실시한 이후 1997년까지 매 10년마다 4차(1968, 1977, 1987, 1997)에 걸쳐 실사에 의해 국부를 추계해왔다. 본 연구는 表鶴吉(1998) 및 Pyo(1998)의 후속 연구로서 종전의 연구가 사용하지 못했던 1997년 국부통계조사결과를 다항식기준연도접속법(polynomial benchmark year estimation method)의 마지막 기준연도 자료로 활용한 추계 결과이다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 자본스톡을 산업부문은 물론 정부ㆍ가계ㆍ사회간접자본 부문으로 부문별 추계한 결과를 소개한다. 추계결과를 보면 우리나라는 지난 반세기동안 제조업 및 사회간접자본의 축적을 통한 자본주도형 경제성장(capital induced economic growth)을 이룩하였음을 알 수 있다. 그러나 추계된 자본스톡 자료를 이용하여 1984~2000년의 기간 동안을 대상으로 분석한 결과에 의하면 1인당 자본장비도는 1997년 경제위기 이후에도 증가하고 있으나 자본-산출 계수는 1998년을 고비로 하락 추세로 돌아서고 있다. 즉 1998년이 한국 경제의 구조적 전환점(structural turning point)이 될 수 있음을 시사해 주고 있다.

Productivity Analysis on the Service Sector in Korea:

Hak K. Pyo,Keunhee Rhee 서울대학교 경제연구소 2018 Seoul journal of economics Vol.31 No.1

One of the most dramatic characterizations of late industrializa-tion is the speed and scope of structural transformation from manufacturing-based to service-based economy. This study aims to analyze this transformation in the Korean economy in terms of productivity performance in its service sector over the period of 1995–2013 in which the economy experienced two financial crises in the years 1997 and 2007. The major finding is that, while the growth rate of gross output in the service sector has decelerated more rapidly than in the manufacturing sector, the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP) has improved from near 0% during 1996–2010 to 1.41% during 2011–2013. Particularly, the improvement in TFP in distribution and producer services has been impressive, which indicates that the Korean economy is transforming itself toward a service-oriented growth and that two financial crises have helped such transformation. However, the relative level of TFP in the service sector remains to be far behind than that of the US and Japan.

Interdependency in East Asia and the Post-Crisis Macroeconomic Adjustment in Korea

Hak K. Pyo 서울대학교 경제연구소 2004 Seoul journal of economics Vol.17 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the financial crisis in Korea and its post-crisis macroeconomic adjustment reviewing changing structure of interdependency in East Asia and to make a critical assessment on its post-crisis reform programs. The painful experience of Korea's post-crisis macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms seem to have received both positive and mixed evaluations. The overall macro economic environment in the post-crisis period has been stabilized. The Korean economy seems to have recovered some of its growth potentials and competitiveness. The movement in the overall productivity indicators such as labor productivity and total factor productivity seem to validate this judgment even though there was a structural break in 1997-8. However, it has long way to go because both financial sector reforms and corporate restructuring are far from being completed.

THE ROLE OF MONEY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH

PYO,HAK K. 韓國計量經濟學會 1991 계량경제학보 Vol.2 No.-

The paper re-examines Startz's(1984) method of estimating output elasticity of money : multiplying the nominal rate of interest by the ratio of money and output. Applying the method to two newly industrializing economies, Korea and Taiwan, the paper finds that the output elasticities of money are much higher than those observed in the United States and other developing countries such as India and Pakistan. The estimates are also consistent with econometric estimates from production function with real money balances. It suggests that real money balances have affected aggregate output through the supply channel and that money matters in development contrary to the findings by Startz(1984) and Paul and Bhattacharyay(1986).

The Distribution of Optimal Liquidity for Economic Growth and Stability

PYO Hak K,SONG Saerang 대외경제정책연구원 2015 Working Papers Vol.2015 No.01

This research paper intends to redefine and extend the concept of ‘optimal li-quidity’ discussed in Han and Lee (2012). For this purpose, we have distinguished between liquidity held by households and liquidity held by firms following Levhari and Patinkin (1968) and Yoo and Pyo (1986). Han and Lee (2012) have revised the ‘money-in-utility’ model by Walsh (2012) and derived the relationship between liquidity and consumption. In the present paper, we have extended Han and Lee (2012) to a ‘money-in-utility-and-production’ model. We have specified a DSGE model in which liquidity serves for both household utility and production input and have conducted the impulse-response analysis. The impulse-responses of most of important variables from the shock of TFP increase are consistent with the results of Bhattacharjee and Thoenissen (2007). On the other hand, the policy interest rate shows a hump-shaped impulse-response, which is consistent with the impulse response of monetary expansion in the cash-in-advance model. In addition, the increase in money supply has produced a kind of crowding-out effect reducing the share of liquidity held by firms. The main policy implication of our model is that not only the absolute level of optimal liquidity but also the relative distribution of the liquidity between households and firms are important determinant for economic growth and stability. In order to validate this proposi-tion, we have conducted a panel regression analysis and have empirically verified the proposition that the relatively higher share of liquidity held by firms would contribute to both GDP growth and its stability.

Economic Growth in Korea (1911-1999): A Long-Term Trend and Perspective

Hak K. Pyo 서울대학교 경제연구소 2001 Seoul journal of economics Vol.14 No.1

This paper provides a consistent and synthetic time-series data for the Korean economy during the twentieth century. The data being covered are value-added, employment, and capital stocks by industries during the period of 1911-99. The main sources of data are Mizoguchi and Umemura (1988) for the colonial period (1911-38) and Pyo (1998) and Pyo and Kwon (1999) for post-war period (1953-99). The data for the interim period (1939-52) are either compiled from alternative sources of data or imputed by econometric method of estimating missing observations. In order to link pre-war data with post-war data of the Republic of Korea. the pre-war data are divided between South and North Korea. The examination of long-run data provides the evidence that the continuous capital accumulation and the increase in labor productivity through industrial structural adjustment were the main sources of its late industrialization. We find the growth of the Korea economy during the twentieth century has been basically of input-driven nature with very little contribution of total factor productivity reaffirming Krugman (1994) and Pyo and Kwon (1999). But the relative contribution of total factor productivity in Mining and Manufacturing sector has not been insignificant implying that the input-driven growth was made possible through both inter-industry and intra-industry capital transformation in mainly Manufacturing sector.

Real-Financial Linkages and Income Redistribution Effects before and after the Global Financial Crisis: A Financial Social Accounting Approach

( Hak K. Pyo ),( Saerang Song ) 한국금융연구원 2015 금융연구 working paper Vol.2015 No.8

In the recent years, the Republic of Korea has experienced two financial crises in 1997-1998 and 2007-2009 respectively over a decade interval. The first one was an endogenous twin-crisis as part of Asian financial crisis involving both domestic banking crisis and foreign exchange crisis. The second one was a kind of exogenous financial shock from a part of global financial crisis. The purpose of the present paper is to trace the impact of the second financial crisis on output and income distribution of the Korean economy by constructing a FSAM (Financial Social Accounting Matrix) for the year 2005 and 2010 before and after the second financial crisis respectively. We estimate two effects of real-financial linkages: output multiplier effects and income redistribution effects by comparing FSAM with SAM following Leung and Secrieru (2012). The paper demonstrates that taking into account financial flows after the global financial crisis increases the impact of a final demand shock on output and relative inequality in income distribution.

A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables

PYO Hak K.,OH Soo Hyun 대외경제정책연구원 2016 Working Papers Vol.2016 No.1

Korea’s export performance has exhibited a remarkable downturn since the end of 2014, declining over the 12 months of 2015 by about eight per-cent in nominal terms. Conjecturing this to reflect depreciation of the Japanese Yen and, during the second half of 2015, of the Chinese Yuan cou-pled with a sudden decline in China’s import demand, we apply an Armington (1969)-type trade model to match international trade data with input-output tables in order to identify the sources of export variation in Korea and, as a bridge between the theoretical model and empirical input-output table, to analyze the effect of income (GDP) and exchange rate variation. The major findings of the present study are three-fold. First, the estimated long-run elasticity (0.067) of trading partners’ GDP on Korea’s export is a lot smaller than the static short-run elasticity (0.755) of their GDP in nominal terms and the estimate of static short-run elasticity (0.462) of GDP in real terms. Second, we find that Korean Won’s real deprecia-tion helps boost Korea’s real exports in the short-run but its effect turns out to have a slightly negative effect in the long-run which implies that the positive effect of real depreciation of the Won may not last long. Third, we also find that a depreciation of Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan in nominal terms has negative effects on Korean exports in the short-run, but the Jap-anese Yen’s real depreciation facilitates increases in Korea’s real exports consistently in both the short-run and long-run. The effects of the ex-change rate variation cannot be unidirectional in both short-run and long-run because the variation affects the relative competitiveness of imported intermediate goods. According to our findings, Korean exports, given a positive income shock in trading partner countries, tend to be replaced by foreign alternatives which reflects a tightening of technology as well as price competition in the global market, and suggests as an optimal export promotion strategy for Korea the pursuit of technological progress and a diversification policy that encompasses both destination and export prod-ucts

ESTIMATES OF CAPITAL STOCK AND CAPITAL/OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS BY INDUSTRIES : KOREA(1953 - 86)

PYO, HAK K. 한국국제경제학회 1988 International Economic Journal Vol.2 No.3

This paper constructs a polynomial-benchmark model to estimate gross and net capital stocks by explicitly estimating implicit retirement rates and depreciation rates. The model is applied to Korean data (1953-86) where such data as national wealth survey, national income accounts and industrial census are available. Three alternative series of capital stock estimates are generated and compared with previous estimates. It is shown that the use of a pure perpetual inventory model or a benchmark-year method alone may introduce a significant bias in the measurement of capital stocks for developing economies.

A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables

표학길 ( Pyo Hak K. ),오수현 ( Oh Soo Hyun ) 대외경제정책연구원 2016 Working Papers Vol.16 No.2