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Ó,Hartaigh, Brí,ain,Gransar, Heidi,Callister, Tracy,Shaw, Leslee J.,Schulman-Marcus, Joshua,Stuijfzand, Wijnand J.,Valenti, Valentina,Cho, Iksung,Szymonifka, Jackie,Lin, Fay Y.,Berman, Dan Elsevier 2018 JACC CARDIOVASCULAR IMAGING Vol.11 No.3
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P><B>Objectives</B></P> <P>The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for prediction of 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival among asymptomatic adults.</P> <P><B>Background</B></P> <P>Simple-to-use prognostication tools that incorporate robust methods such as coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) for predicting near-, intermediate- and long-term mortality are warranted.</P> <P><B>Methods</B></P> <P>In a consecutive series of 9,715 persons (mean age: 53.4 ± 10.5 years; 59.3% male) undergoing CACS, we developed a nomogram using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling that included: age, sex, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, family history of coronary artery disease, and CACS. We developed a prognostic index (PI) summing the number of risk points corresponding to weighted covariates, which was used to configure the nomogram. Validation of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and calibration applied to a separate cohort of 7,824 adults who also underwent CACS.</P> <P><B>Results</B></P> <P>A total of 936 and 294 deaths occurred in the derivation and validation sets at a median follow-up of 14.6 years (interquartile range: 13.7 to 15.5 years) and 9.4 years (interquartile range: 6.8 to 11.5 years), respectively. The developed model effectively predicted 5-, 10-, and 15-year probability of survival. The PI displayed high discrimination in the derivation and validation sets (C-index 0.74 and 0.76, respectively), indicating suitable external performance of our nomogram model. The predicted and actual estimates of survival in each dataset according to PI quartiles were similar (though not identical), demonstrating improved model calibration.</P> <P><B>Conclusions</B></P> <P>A simple-to-use nomogram effectively predicts 5-, 10- and 15-year survival for asymptomatic adults undergoing screening for cardiac risk factors. This nomogram may be considered for use in clinical care.</P> <P><B>Graphical abstract</B></P> <P>[DISPLAY OMISSION]</P>
Schulman-Marcus, Joshua,Lin, Fay Y.,Gransar, Heidi,Berman, Daniel,Callister, Tracy,DeLago, Augustin,Hadamitzky, Martin,Hausleiter, Joerg,Al-Mallah, Mouaz,Budoff, Matthew,Kaufmann, Philipp,Achenbach, S Oxford University Press 2017 European heart journal cardiovascular Imaging Vol.18 No.8
<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P><B>Aims</B></P><P>To identify the effect of early revascularization on 5-year survival in patients with CAD diagnosed by coronary-computed tomographic angiography (CCTA).</P><P><B>Methods and results</B></P><P>We examined 5544 stable patients with suspected CAD undergoing CCTA who were followed a median of 5.5 years in a large international registry. Patients were categorized as having low-, intermediate-, or high-risk CAD based on CCTA findings. Two treatment groups were defined: early revascularization within 90 days of CCTA (<I>n</I> = 1171) and medical therapy (<I>n</I> = 4373). To account for the non-randomized referral to revascularization, we developed a propensity score by logistic regression. This score was incorporated into Cox proportional hazard models to calculate the effect of revascularization on all-cause mortality. Death occurred in 363 (6.6%) patients and was more frequent in medical therapy. In multivariable models, when compared with medical therapy, the mortality benefit of revascularization varied significantly over time and by CAD risk (<I>P</I> for interaction 0.04). In high-risk CAD, revascularization was significantly associated with lower mortality at 1 year (hazard ratio [HR] 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11–0.47) and 5 years (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.18–0.54). For intermediate-risk CAD, revascularization was associated with reduced mortality at 1 year (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22–0.93) but not 5 years (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.33–1.20). For low-risk CAD, there was no survival benefit at either time point.</P><P><B>Conclusions</B></P><P>Early revascularization was associated with reduced 1-year mortality in intermediate- and high-risk CAD detected by CCTA, but this association only persisted for 5-year mortality in high-risk CAD.</P>
Prognostic value of chronic total occlusions detected on coronary computed tomographic angiography
Opolski, Maksymilian P,Gransar, Heidi,Lu, Yao,Achenbach, Stephan,Al-Mallah, Mouaz H,Andreini, Daniele,Bax, Jeroen J,Berman, Daniel S,Budoff, Matthew J,Cademartiri, Filippo,Callister, Tracy Q,Chang, Hy BMJ Group 2019 Heart Vol.105 No.3
<P><B>Objective</B></P><P>Data describing clinical relevance of chronic total occlusion (CTO) identified by coronary CT angiography (CCTA) have not been reported to date. We investigated the prognosis of CTO on CCTA.</P><P><B>Methods</B></P><P>We identified 22 828 patients without prior known coronary artery disease (CAD), who were followed for a median of 26 months. Based on CCTA, coronary lesions were graded as normal (no atherosclerosis), non-obstructive (1%–49%), moderate-to-severe (50%–99%) or totally occluded (100%). All-cause mortality, and major adverse cardiac events defined as mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and late coronary revascularisation (≥90 days after CCTA) were assessed.</P><P><B>Results</B></P><P>The distribution of patients with normal coronaries, non-obstructive CAD, moderate-to-severe CAD and CTO was 10 034 (44%), 7965 (34.9%), 4598 (20.1%) and 231 (1%), respectively. The mortality rate per 1000 person-years of CTO patients was non-significantly different from patients with moderate-to-severe CAD (22.95; 95% CI 12.71 to 41.45 vs 14.46; 95% CI 12.34 to 16.94; p=0.163), and significantly higher than of those with normal coronaries and non-obstructive CAD (p<0.001 for both). Among 14 382 individuals with follow-up for the composite end point, patients with CTO had a higher rate of events than those with moderate-to-severe CAD (106.56; 95% CI 76.51 to 148.42 vs 65.45; 95% CI 58.01 to 73.84, p=0.009). This difference was primarily driven by an increase in late revascularisations in CTO patients (27 of 35 events). After multivariable adjustment, compared with individuals with normal coronaries, the presence of CTO conferred the highest risk for adverse cardiac events (14.54; 95% CI 9.11 to 23.20, p<0.001).</P><P><B>Conclusions</B></P><P>The detection of CTO on non-invasive CCTA is associated with increased rate of late revascularisation but similar 2-year mortality as compared with moderate-to-severe CAD.</P><P><B>Trial registration number</B></P><P> NCT01443637.</P>
Han, Donghee,Hartaigh, Brí,ain ó,Gransar, Heidi,Lee, Ji Hyun,Choi, Su-Yeon,Chun, Eun Ju,Sung, Jidong,Han, Hae-Won,Park, Sung Hak,Callister, Tracy UNKNOWN 2016 CIRCULATION JOURNAL Vol.80 No.11
<P>Background: The incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) varies depending on ethnicity, but the precise differences remain to be firmly established. This study therefore evaluated the disparity in coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a marker of CAD, in asymptomatic US and Korean adults. Methods and Results: CAC score was compared between asymptomatic Korean (n=15,128) and US (n=7,533) adults. Propensity score matching was performed according to age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and current smoking, which generated 2 cohorts of 5,427 matched pairs. Both cohorts were categorized according to age group: 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years. Overall, the prevalence of CAC score >0, >100, and >400 in Korean adults was lower than in US adults (P<0.001, all). According to increasing age groups, the likelihood of CAC was most often lower in Korean adults, especially in Korean women. The odds of having CAC >400 in Korean adults aged 65-74 years was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.48-0.91) overall, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.52-1.19) in men, and 0.50 (95% CI: 0.29-0.86) in women, compared with US counterparts. Conclusions: Korean adults have a lower prevalence and severity of atherosclerotic burden as assessed on CAC, compared with US adults, but the disparity in CAC according to ethnicity may decline with older age.</P>
Cho, Iksung,ó,Hartaigh, Brí,ain,Gransar, Heidi,Valenti, Valentina,Lin, Fay Y.,Achenbach, Stephan,Berman, Daniel S.,Budoff, Matthew J.,Callister, Tracy Q.,Al-Mallah, Mouaz H.,Cademartiri, F Elsevier 2017 Atherosclerosis Vol.262 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P><B>Background and aims</B></P> <P>Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is a predictor of future adverse clinical events, and a surrogate measure of overall coronary artery plaque burden. Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) is a contrast-enhanced method that allows for visualization of plaque as well as whether that plaque causes luminal narrowing. To date, the prognosis of individuals with CAC but without stenosis has not been reported. We explored the prevalence of CAC>0 and its prognostic utility for future mortality for patients without luminal narrowing by CCTA.</P> <P><B>Methods</B></P> <P>From 17 sites in 9 countries, we identified patients without known coronary artery disease, who underwent CAC scoring and CCTA, and were followed for >3 years. CCTA was graded for % stenosis according to a modified American Heart Association 16-segment model. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for incident mortality and compared risk of death for patients as a function of presence or absence of CAC and presence or absence of luminal narrowing by CCTA.</P> <P><B>Results</B></P> <P>Among 6656 patients who underwent CCTA and CAC scoring, 399 patients (6.0%) had no coronary luminal narrowing but CAC>0. During a median follow-up of 5.1 years (IQR: 3.9–5.9 years), 456 deaths occurred. Compared to individuals without luminal narrowing or CAC, individuals without luminal narrowing but CAC>0 were older, more likely to be male and had higher rates of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Individuals without luminal narrowing but CAC experienced a 2-fold increased risk of mortality, with increasing risk of mortality with higher CAC score. Following adjustment, incident death persisted (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1–2.9, <I>p</I> = 0.02) among patients without luminal narrowing but with CAC>0 compared with patients whose CACS = 0. Individuals without luminal narrowing but CAC ≥100 had mortality risks similar to individuals with non-obstructive CAD (0 < stenosis<50%) by CCTA [HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.3–4.9) and 2.2 (95% CI 1.6–3.0), respectively].</P> <P><B>Conclusions</B></P> <P>Patients without luminal narrowing but with CAC experience greater risk of 5-year mortality. Patients with CAC score ≥100 and no coronary luminal narrowing experience death rates similar to those with non-obstructive CAD.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> The prevalence of individuals without coronary stenosis but with evident coronary calcium was identified in this large international coronary CT angiography registry. </LI> <LI> Coronary plaques with positive remodeling reflect a potential mechanism for the presence of coronary calcium without luminal narrowing. </LI> <LI> The current study observed a worsened prognosis among those without luminal narrowing but with coronary artery calcium. </LI> </UL> </P>
Lee, Ji Hyun,Han, Donghee,Hartaigh, Brí,ain ó,Gransar, Heidi,Lu, Yao,Rizvi, Asim,Park, Mahn Won,Roudsari, Hadi Mirhedayati,Stuijfzand, Wijnand J.,Berman, Daniel S.,Callister, Tracy Q.,DeLa Wiley (John WileySons) 2018 Clinical cardiology Vol.41 No.5
<P>Our objective was to assess the prognostic value of symptom typicality in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), determined by coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA). We identified 4215 patients without prior history of CAD and without obstructive CAD (<50% CCTA stenosis). CAD severity was categorized as nonobstructive (1%-49%) and none (0%). Based upon the Diamond-Forrester criteria for angina pectoris, symptom typicality was classified as asymptomatic, nonanginal, atypical, and typical. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), comprising all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and late revascularization, according to symptom typicality. Mean patient age was 57.0 +/- 12.0years (54.9% male). During a median follow-up of 5.3years (interquartile range, 4.6-5.9years), MACE were reported in 312 (7.4%) patients. Among patients with nonobstructive CAD, there was an association between symptom typicality and MACE (P for interaction=0.05), driven by increased risk of MACE among those with typical angina and nonobstructive CAD (hazard ratio: 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-2.48, P=0.03). No consistent relationship was found between symptom typicality and MACE among patients without any CAD (hazard ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.34-1.57, P=0.08). In the CONFIRM registry, patients who presented with concomitant typical angina and nonobstructive CAD had a higher rate of MACE than did asymptomatic patients with nonobstructive CAD. However, the presence of typical angina did not appear to portend worse prognosis in patients with no CAD.</P>
Cho, Iksung,Chang, Hyuk-Jae,Ó,Hartaigh, Brí,ain,Shin, Sanghoon,Sung, Ji Min,Lin, Fay Y.,Achenbach, Stephan,Heo, Ran,Berman, Daniel S.,Budoff, Matthew J.,Callister, Tracy Q.,Al-Mallah, Moua The European Society of Cardiology 2015 European heart journal Vol.36 No.8
<P><B>Aim</B></P><P>Prior evidence observed no predictive utility of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) over the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and the Framingham risk score (FRS), among asymptomatic individuals. Whether the prognostic value of CCTA differs for asymptomatic patients, when stratified by CACS severity, remains unknown.</P><P><B>Methods and results</B></P><P>From a 12-centre, 6-country observational registry, 3217 asymptomatic individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent CACS and CCTA. Individuals were categorized by CACS as: 0–10, 11–100, 101–400, 401–1000, >1000. For CCTA analysis, the number of obstructive vessels—as defined by the per-patient presence of a ≥50% luminal stenosis—was used to grade the extent and severity of CAD. The incremental prognostic value of CCTA over and above FRS was measured by the likelihood ratio (LR) <I>χ</I><SUP>2</SUP>, <I>C</I>-statistic, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) for prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 24 months (25th–75th percentile, 17–30 months), there were 58 composite end-points. The incremental value of CCTA over FRS was demonstrated in individuals with CACS >100 (LR<I>χ</I><SUP>2</SUP>, 25.34; increment in <I>C</I>-statistic, 0.24; NRI, 0.62, all <I>P</I> < 0.001), but not among those with CACS ≤100 (all <I>P</I> > 0.05). For subgroups with CACS >100, the utility of CCTA for predicting the study end-point was evident among individuals whose CACS ranged from 101 to 400; the observed predictive benefit attenuated with increasing CACS.</P><P><B>Conclusion</B></P><P>Coronary CT angiography provides incremental prognostic utility for prediction of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction for asymptomatic individuals with moderately high CACS, but not for lower or higher CACS.</P>