후부 및 중간부 포도막염으로 인한 리체 혼탁시 유리체 절제술의 결과

정홍영(Hong Young Chung),정영태(Young Tae Chung) 대한안과학회 1997 대한안과학회지 Vol.38 No.11

안와 국균증 1례

이영호(Young Ho Lee),김인철(In Chul Kim),정홍영(Hong Young Chung) 대한안과학회 1996 대한안과학회지 Vol.37 No.9

다양한 안과 질환에서의 유리체절제술의 임상적 고찰

김황기(Hwang Ki Kim),정홍영(Hong Young Chung),정영태(Young Tae Chung) 대한안과학회 1997 대한안과학회지 Vol.38 No.11

성장률시차분석을 이용한 항만의 수출구조 분석: 광양항과 인천항

모수원 ( Mo Soo-won ),정홍영 ( Chung Hong-young ),이광배 ( Lee Kwang-bae ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2017 해운물류연구 Vol.33 No.1

본고는 광양항과 인천항의 10개 주요 수출품목의 중량을 이용하여 변이할당분석과 성장률시차분석을 적용하여 수출변동을 요인별로 분해한다. 광양항의 변이할당분석에서는 10개 품목 중 9개 품목의 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 가지나 성장률시차분석에서는 대부분의 품목의 경쟁력요인이 음의 부호를 가져 두 분석이 상반된 결과를 보임을 밝힌다. 또한 변이할당분석의 산업구조효과와 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 갖는 6개 품목 중 1개 품목만 성장률시차분석의 가중요인과 경쟁력요인이 양의 부호이며 나머지 5개 품목에서는 경쟁력우위가 감소하고 있음을 보인다. 인천항의 변이할당분석은 3개 품목에서 산업구조효과와 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 가지나 성장률시차분석에서는 가중요인과 경쟁력요인이 모두 양의 부호를 갖는 품목이 없음을 보인다. 이러한 분석결과는 항만 수출구조와 경쟁력을 정확하게 분해하고 평가하기 위해서는 두 기법을 함께 적용해야 함을 의미한다. This study empirically examines the 10 export sectors in Gwangyang and Incheon Ports. As far as shift-share effect is concerned, for the Gwangyang Port, a positive regional competitive effect happens and is much greater than industry-mix effect in most of industries, while most of competitive components of regional growth rate differential analysis display negative signs. The signs of steel flate-rolled products, fine chemical material, synthetic rubber, favorite food and other metal ores are positive for industry-mix as well as regional shift effect. Their competitive advantage, however, tends to decline. The items such as fine chemical material and other metal ores have favorable structure at national level but are unfavorable at regional one. The shift-share analysis indicates that petroleum product, petrochemistry middle materials and paper materials have positive industry mix effect and regional competitive effect, while regional growth rate differential analysis reveals that there is no item with positive weight effect and positive rate effect for the Incheon Port.

시장비교우위지수를 이용한 부산항의 수출경쟁력 분석

모수원(Soo-Won Mo),정홍영(Hong-Young Chung),이광배(Kwang-Bae Lee) 한국항만경제학회 2015 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.31 No.3

부산항의 수출이 우리나라 항만의 수출에서 차지하는 비중은 계속해서 감소하고 있는데, 이와 같은 항만의 위상변화는 해당 항만의 주요 수출시장과 수출품목에서 그 원인을 찾아볼 수 있다. 본고는 중국에 대한 부산항의 주요 10개 수출품목의 경쟁력이 어떻게 변화할 것인가를 밝히기 위해 시장비교우위(Market Comparative Advantage: MCA)지수를 도출하여 변화하는 행태를 분석함과 동시에 MCA지수를 대 중국 수출비중과 중국의 수입비중으로 분해한다. 부산항의 수출경쟁력은 MCA지수가 하락한 HS8703 품목을 제외한 9개 품목에서 상승하나, 이 중 7개 품목에서 중국의 수입비중이 감소함을 보인다. 그런데 중국의 수입비중이 줄어든다는 것은 시장비교우위지수가 상승하여도 수출증가를 낙관할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 중국의 수입비중이 감소하는 7개 품목에서 5개 품목은 대중 수출비중이 상승하나 2개 품목에서는 대중 수출비중도 함께 하락하여 MCA의 상승에도 불구하고 수출전망이 어둡다는 것을 보인다. 결국 HS3920, HS8708, HS8703과 같은 3개 품목에서만 수출경쟁력 향상이 수출전망을 밝게 한다는 것을 밝힌다. HS8708 품목이 부산항의 대중 수출에서 1위를 차지하는 품목이라는 점은 부산항의 대중 수출에 긍정적인 요소가 될 수 있으나, 10개 품목 중 3개 품목에서만 수출전망이 밝다는 것은 부산항의 대중 수출에 대해 전반적인 검토가 있어야 한다는 것을 보인다. This paper is an attempt to analyze the comparative advantage of Busan Port to China. For this, we use the market comparative advantage index, which is a version of the revealed comparative advantage index. The market comparative advantage index (MCA) uses trade patterns to identify the sectors in which a region has a comparative advantage, in this case by comparing Busan Port’s trade profile with the world average (China). The indices are calculated at the commodity level of the HS four-digit classification. The export data used in this study are obtained from the Korea International Trade Association. Exports to China accounted for almost one third of Korean exports in 2014. There are, however, structural differences among the main export items of Busan Port. This paper, therefore, employs MCA indices to reveal the behaviors of the ten main export items, which are “HS3920?other plates/sheets/film/foil of plastics,” “HS7606?aluminum plates/sheets/strip,” “HS8479?unspecified machines/medical appliances,” “HS8486?machines for semiconductor devices or wafers,” “HS8529?parts for transmission apparatus for television,” “HS8703?motor vehicles for the transport of persons,” “HS8708?parts of motor vehicles,” “HS9001?optical fibers,” and “HS9013 ?liquid crystal devices.” The study shows that export competitiveness of nine items increases, the exception being HS8703. However, China’s import ratios of seven of the nine items for which the MCA indices go up are on the decrease, which means that it would be hard to expand the export market for these seven items, despite the higher MCA indices. Since the shares of the port’s total exports to China of HS3907, HS8486, HS8529, HS9001, and HS9013 in total exports to China increase together with China’s import ratio decreasing, these items may have promising export markets. MCA increases of HS7606 and HS8479 are attributable to China’s lower import ratio, rather than a higher export share, so higher MCA indices do not guarantee higher export competitiveness for these items.

변이할당분석을 이용한 광양항과 인천항의 수출구조 분석

모수원 ( Soo Won Mo ),정홍영 ( Hong Young Chung ),이광배 ( Kwang Bae Lee ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2015 해운물류연구 Vol.31 No.3

물동량과 무역규모에서 인천항에 대한 광양항의 비교우위는 빠르게 약해지고, 광양항의 교역조건이 악화되는 추세여서 물동량 증가와 수익성 악화가 함께 이루어지는 빈곤화성장 가능성마저도 우려되고 있다. 이에 변이할당분석(shift-share analysis)을 통해 광양항과 인천항의 수출구조를 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 인천항의 주요 수출인 평판디스플레이는 지역할당효과로 수출증가에 상당한 기여를 한다는 것과, 수출비중이 높은 플라스틱제품, 건설광산기계, 자동차부품, 건전지 등은 산업구조효과와 지역할당효과가 모두 양(+)으로 인천항의 성장 전망이 밝게 나타났다. 광양항의 변이할당분석에서 산업구조효과는 합성고무, 기타석유화학제품, 정밀화학원료, 자동차부품에서 양의 값을 가지나, 정밀화학원료와 자동차부품 2개 품목에서만 지역할당효과가 양의 부호라는 것과, 종이제품과 고무제품은 두 효과가 모두 음이어서 사양산업임을 보인다. Shift-share analysis is a traditional tool for the measurement, comparison, and evaluation of interregional and sectoral performance. Its widespread use is explained by its simplicity and modest data requirements; it does not require primary data collection and its results are also relatively easy to assess and interpret. Since exports are a vital factor in the overall development of a port, some means of quantitatively assessing export changes must be developed. If shifts in exports can be isolated, they can be used to explain partially structural transformations in ports and to provide insight into possible future direction for port development. This study, therefore, uses a shift-share technique to isolate the various factors associated with export changes. The traditional shift-share model partitions the change of exports in a port into three effects: the national growth effect, the industrial mix effect and the regional share effect. The national growth effect attempts measure the change in exports in a port that would have occurred if its exports had grown at precisely the same rate as the national average. Hence, if a port grows at the same rate as the national average, it does not possess any comparative advantage in terms of resource endowments or human capital. The industrial mix effect associates the differential growth rate in exports between the region in question and the nation as a whole with the overall strengths or weaknesses of the relevant export sectors. Ideally, it is expected that a large proportion of a port’s exports should be concentrated in faster-growing industries. The regional share effect accounts for the differential change between a port and the nation. The regional share effect portrays the competitive position of a port in relation to the rest of the port. For instance, an export component that is growing faster in a port than its counterparts in the nation as a whole will add to the port’s overall growth relative to that of the nation, while a slower-growing component will bring forth an opposite effect. The export data used in this study are obtained from the Korea International Trade Association and consist of exports by two ports of 20 individual products. The particular product categories studied are at three-digit MTI (Ministry of Trade and Industry) level of disaggregation. The national growth effect for synthetic resin and steel plate-rolled products accounted for about 96 percent and 102 percent respectively of the increase in exports of Gwangyang Port or 3,685 and 4,226 million dollars respectively during the period under analysis. The fact that the industrial mix effects of the two products were negative-at 486 and 1,191 million dollars, respectively-can be interpreted to mean that Gwangyang Port’s main export products were growing slowly rather than rapidly. The regional share effects of the two products did not explain a large proportion of the change-at about 16 percent and 27 percent, respectively. The greatest regional share impact was in the steel plate-rolled product sector. The national growth effect of the automobile industry accounted for about 99 percent of the increase in export of Incheon Port or 3,378 million dollars, while that for the flat panel display only explained 1 percent or 100 million dollars. The regional share effect of flat panel display, however, explained a very large percentage of the change-88 percent or 12,238 million dollars-compared with automobiles, at 46 percent or 1,585 million dollars. The industrial mix effect of the two products was negative or explained only a small portion of the change.

우리 나라 선박수출모형의 추정과 예측

모수원,정홍영 한국해운학회 2000 해운물류연구 Vol.30 No.-

This study provides an empirical overview of the economic variables and the shipbuilding orders using integer and fractional cointegration approach such as Engle-Granger two step cointegration technique. Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology and GPH test to check the stationarity of the model. Our empirical results show that all the fractional estimates not only lie between 0 and 1, but are greater than 0, suggesting a mean-reverting behaviors. This paper also applies impulse-response functions, variance decompositions and historical decompositions to our model, indicating that ship exports are endogenous to and are predictable with the economic variables.