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이교덕,이상원 고려대학교 평화연구소 2004 평화연구 Vol.12 No.1
본 논문은 탈냉전 이후 북한이 전개하고 있는 외교정책을 분석하여 주요 국가들에 대한 외교전략의 특징을 규정하고 향후 진로를 전망하고자 했다. 미국에 대해 북한은 대량살상무기 개발을 협상수단으로 활용하여 미국과의 관계개선을 추구하는 '갈등적 편승을 위한 우회 전략'으로 표현할 수 있다. 그리고 강대국의 압박에 다른 강대국의 지원을 얻어 대응하려는 '균형전략'은 중국, 특히 러시아에 대한 북한의 외교에서 발견되며 유럽연합, 아시아국가들로부터 북한외교가 기대하는 것은 중, 러를 동원한 균형전략을 지원해 주는 효과이다. North Korean diplomatic strategy is based on Kim Jong-Il's basic political concept summarized as 'Military-First Politics'. His 'Military-First Politics' are defined as a method of guiding the nation that pushes ahead with grand socialistic accomplishments by handling all matters concerning revolution and construction on a Military-First principle. Such politics form the basic of all policies, both internal and external, of the regime. 'Conflictual Bandwagoning Strategy' is a process usually taken by a small country faced with a threat to its national security to hitchhike power by causing conflict. North Korea's Conflictual Bandwagoning Strategy is clearly observed in its diplomacy towards the US. The nation develops weapons of mass destruction that will exert negative influence on the stability of the US-led world order, thus causing a conflict with the US in an effort to obtain guarantees for its national security and economic and diplomatic aid. Japan is the country that can provide North Korea a roundabout route to political dialogue with the US. Realizing that Pyongyang has shown more compromising attitude toward Japan under the Bush administration. It is thought that North Korea intends to promote a 'Balancing Strategy' towards the US-led world order with the official inauguration of Kim Jong-Il regime, while focusing on diplomacy towards the world's only superpower. In this connection, the regime is seen to push ahead with the establishment of closer relations with China and Russia. North Korea appears to adopt a Balancing Strategy to cope with US-led world order by establishing stronger ties with asian nations, especially the EU, taking into account the possibility of conflict of interest between the US and the EU. North Korea maintains a view that the EU is opposed to one single polar world and attempts to check the unilateralism or hegemony of the US.