OECD 노동생산성, 총노동시간, 임금 간 동태관계 분석

현준석(Jun-Seog Hyun),김원중(Won-Joong Kim) 한국무역연구원 2017 무역연구 Vol.13 No.2

This paper analyzes the relationship among labor productivity, employment and wages in OECD countries. Specifically, by using a structural panel vector autoregressive model, the paper estimates and compares the effects of exogenous shocks on labor productivity, employment (proxied by the total hours worked), and wages in manufacturing and service industries. Results show that labor productivity shocks have statistically significant and negative effects on employment in the short run in both manufacturing and service sectors, and therefore, the real business cycle theory is not supported. However, our results support performance-based pay system since labor productivity shocks cause real wages to increase in both the manufacturing and service industries. We find that wage growth is less than productivity growth relative to a labor productivity shock. Productivity shocks in both manufacturing and service industries have negative effects on employment. Most particularly, the negative effect of wages on employment is greater in the capital-intensive manufacturing sector. Wage shocks have greater and sustained effects on wages in the manufacturing sector than in the service sector.

노동생산성이 총노동시간과 임금에 미치는 영향: 제조업과 서비스업의 비교

현준석 ( Jun Seog Hyun ),이상돈 ( Sang Don Lee ),김원중 ( Won Joong Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2016 生産性論集 Vol.30 No.2

There are various studies on the relationship between labor productivity, employment, and wage. First, the relationship between labor productivity and employment can be explained by the relative size of substitution effect and compensation effect. In other words, when the improvement in the labor productivity comes from the technological innovation, it will substitute labor so that employment falls. On the other hand, improvement in the labor productivity causes the prices of goods and services to fall and increases demand for those goods and services. It will therefore increase demand for labor in those industries. Second, the real business cycle theory argues that productivity shock will have a positive effect on employment. However, Gali (1999) argues that productivity shock lowers the marginal production cost while, because of the price rigidity, demand for goods does not change. As a result, firms reduce the number of worker employed from a rise in the labor productivity. Finally, Chang et al.(2009) note that, even when there is a price rigidity, technology shock may increase employment if it is less costly to hold inventories. In sum, whether a rise in labor productivity on employment is positive or not is subject to empirical investigation. The paper utilizes panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model to compare the effects of labor productivity shocks on employment, proxied by the total hour worked, and wages between manufacture industries and service industries. The results show that labor productivity shocks in the manufacturing sectors have positive effects on employment while those in the service sectors have negative effects on employment. Labor productivity shocks in both in manufacturing and service industries cause wages to rise. However, the wage rise is higher in the manufacturing industries than services industries in response to labor productivity shocks. A rise in employment in the manufacturing sector and a fall in employment in the service sector in response to a labor productivity shock can be explained by two different theories. First, our results support that the compensation effect is greater than the substitution effect in the manufacturing sector while the compensation effect is less that the substitution effect in the service sector. Second, because holding inventories are less costly in the manufacturing sector, labor productivity shock increases employment in the manufacturing sector while it lowers employment in the service sector.

ICT 산업의 국민경제 및 타 산업 파급효과 분석

현준석(Jun Seog Hyun),김원중(Won Joong Kim) 한국경제연구학회 2015 한국경제연구 Vol.33 No.1

ICT 산업은 중간재, 자본재 혹은 업무 프로세스 개선 등의 다양한 용도로 타산업의 생산에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 블록 외생성(block exogeneity) 및 독립성(diagonality)을 가정한 구조적 벡터자기회귀모형(SVAR)을 이용하여 ICT 산업이 국민경제 및 타 산업에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 1997년 1월부터 2013년 8월까지의 월별 자료를 이용하여 분석한 결과, ICT 생산충격은 산업생산 및 수출 등의 국민경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 크기의 차이는 있으나 ICT 생산충격은 전반적으로 개별 제조업 생산에도 통계적으로 유의하게 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 분산 분해 분석결과 ICT 생산충격은 ICT 밀접산업뿐만 아니라 일반 전통산업의 생산 변동성에도 통계적으로 유의하게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. Using a structural vector autoregression model with block exogeneity and diagonality assumptions, this study identifies exogenous ICT productivity shocks and estimates the effects of those shocks both on the national income and on other manufacturing industries. The results show that ICT shock has positive effects on national income as well as on the productions in most of manufacturing industries. The variance decomposition results reveal that ICT shock explains with statistical significance the volatilities in the productions of ‘medical/precision product’, ‘other machinery’. ‘rubber and plastic product’. ‘basic metal product’ and ‘fabricated metal product.’ The results confirm that ICT has important impacts on other industries either as intermediate goods, capital goods or as tools for improving business efficiency.

FAVAR를 이용한 국제 원자재 가격의 결정요인 분석

현준석(Jun Seog Hyun),김원중(Won Joong Kim) 한국경제연구학회 2018 한국경제연구 Vol.36 No.2

본 연구는 18개 글로벌 거시경제 변수들과 16개 개별 원자재 가격 변수들로 구성된 FAVAR 모형을 이용하여 글로벌 거시경제 변수들이 개별 원자재 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 특히, 본 연구는 FAVAR에서 다양한 글로벌 거시경제 변수와 개별 원자재 변수로부터 경제적 함의를 구별할 수 있는 7개의 공통 충격(① 에너지 가격, ②비에너지 가격, ③ 선진국 비즈니스 사이클, ④ 중국 비즈니스 사이클, ⑤ 이자율, ⑥ 인플레이션, ⑦ 환율)을 식별하였다. 실증분석 결과, 선진국 비즈니스 사이클 충격과 중국 비즈니스 사이클 충격은 개별 원자재 가격을 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 환율 충격과 인플레이션 충격이 발생하여도 개별 원자재 가격은 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 반면에 이자율 충격이 발생하면 개별 원자재 가격은 하락하였다. 특히, 에너지 가격 충격이 발생하면 개별 비에너지 가격도 상승하는 전이효과(spillover effects)가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. This paper employs a factor-augmented VAR(FAVAR) model with 18 global macroeconomic variables and 16 commodity price variables and analyzes the effects of global shocks on the individual commodity prices. Specifically, we identified seven common shocks(① energy shock, ② non-energy shock, ③ advanced country business shock, ④ china business shock, ⑤ interest rate shock, ⑥ inflation shock, ⑦ exchange rate shock), which have been associated with developments in commodity prices. The results show that advanced countries’ business cycle shocks and China’s business cycle shocks have positive effects on individual commodity prices. A dollar-depreciating exchange rate shocks and inflation shocks also cause individual commodity prices to rise, but interest rate shocks have negative effects on individual commodity prices. Moreover, this paper find strong spillover effects from energy price shocks to individual non-energy commodity prices.

수출비중과 환율이 소득불균등에 미치는 영향

현준석(Jun Seog Hyun),김원중(Won Joong Kim) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.1

This paper theoretically and empirically examines the dynamic relationship between income inequality, export share and the exchange rate. The paper first theoretically shows that income inequality can worsen in response to a rise in the share of export in GDP if proportional moves both in the capital and in the labor from non-export industry to export industry are not possible. The empirical results generally show that both export shock and exchange rate shock that lead to a depreciation of domestic currency cause a widening of income inequality. To reduce the income inequality, the results suggest that domestic market revitalization and the promotion of SMEs in the export market must be done.

장기균형환율의 결정요인

현준석(Jun Seog Hyun),김원중(Won Joong Kim) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.4

Under the Balassa-Samuelson model, the long-run equilibrium exchange rate condition is derived by assuming that the wage in the tradable goods equals that in the non-tradable goods. This paper relaxes this assumption and empirically examines the importance of wage differential between tradable and non-tradable goods in the long-run exchange rate. The cointegration analyses show that, in both nominal won/dollar exchange rate and in nominal effective exchange rate of won, the long-run equilibrium patterns in exchange rates are not found with the classical Balassa-Samuelson model. However, with the wage differential in the model, we find a strong long-run equilibrium in exchange rate. Based on the results, it is suggested that wage differential which also accounts for the differences in the labor market between tradable and non-tradable goods, should be included to analyze the long-run movement in the nominal exchange rate.

인구구조 변화가 성장 잠재력에 미치는 영향

주상영,현준석,Joo, Sangyeong,Hyun, Jun Seog 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2020 Analyses & alternatives Vol.4 No.2

This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.