대미 대일 산업별 무역수지의 J-곡선 효과 분석

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha) 한국무역연구원 2021 무역연구 Vol.17 No.6

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of exchange rates on short- run and long-run trade balances using the industry data of trading partners (US, Japan) since the 2000s. Design/Methodology/Approach This study used the ARDL-ECM model of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). Previous research allowed for adding the relative money supply variable to the empirical analysis model. Findings In the short-run, the trade balances of 5 industries in the US were affected by exchange rate changes, but this was true for only 3 industries in Japan. However, the short-run effects became favorable in the long-run for only 3 industries in the US and 2 industries in Japan. The effect of the relative money supply on the long-run trade balance was relatively larger in Japan than in the United States. However, in this study, the direct route was not analyzed, so further review is needed. Research Implications This study is different in that it analyzed the effect of exchange rates on long-run and short-run trade balances by industry in trading countries, and identified the existence of the J-curve effect. The empirical analysis results of this study provide implications that can prevent the setting of identical exchange rate policies in different industries.

인플레이션 타게팅 도입국 및 비도입국간의 환율, 물가에 대한 국제비교연구

차혜경(Hye Kyung Cha),박수경(Soo Kyung Park) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.1

This study focuses on the comparison of inflation environments between 10 inflation targeters and 7 non-inflation targeters during the period from 1990 to 2013 in order to find out how emerging countries are successful in price stabilization after adopting an inflation targeting policy. First, most emerging economies have experienced lower inflation levels and volatilities since adopting inflation targeting. Second, the long-run and short-run exchange rate pass-through into CPI of inflation targeters fall significantly in the inflation targeting period while consistent results do not appear in non-inflation targeting markets during the same period. In addition, inflation targeters have smaller long-run and short-run exchange rate pass-through into CPI than non-targeters. To examine how closely inflation environment changes are related with the inflation targeting adoption, Chow breakpoint test and rolling estimation approach are applied. The results demonstrate that exchange rate pass-through into CPI among inflation targeters fall persistently and apparently whereas those of non-inflation targeters do not show consistent directional changes. Those results are supportive evidence for Taylor (2000).

신흥국가의 인플레이션 타게팅 도입의 장·단기 효과

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha),조성일(Sung-il Cho) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.6

Inflation targeting (IT) policy is a kind of monetary policy that is to control inflation rate directly without any other intermediate targets. It is widely reported by previous studies that IT policy is effective to decrease inflation rate, especially more powerful on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Whereas there still remains question: advanced economies' monetary circumstance is all alike, but each emerging economies' circumstance differs in its own way. In this paper regional asymmetric effect of IT policy among the emerging economies is focused. The inflationary effect of IT policy is empirically estimated with the use of a balanced panel of 12 emerging economies from 1980 to 2013. To investigate regional asymmetry, emerging economies are divided into two groups - Latin American countries and non-Latin American countries. The period of IT adoption and regional difference of countries are treated by dummy-variables. Dynamic panel model of partial adjustment regression is applied as an econometric methodology and long-run effect as well as short-run effect are estimated and tested. Empirical results indicate that the inflationary effect of IT is more powerful in the long-run and on Latin America. Such an econometric results imply that the adoption of IT policy decrease expectation of inflation rate in the long-run in Latin American countries which had been exposed to more inflationary circumstance.

수입물가, 생산자물가, 소비자물가 단계별 장·단기환율전가에 관한 연구

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha) 한국무역연구원 2016 무역연구 Vol.12 No.3

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the import prices and the domestic PPI and CPI in Korea from 1985 to 2015 with 1st stage regressions long-run Dynamic OLS and 2nd stage regressions short-run Error Correction Model. Our results show that the exchange rate changes to all stages of prices in the long run is higher than short run pass-through. Second, the direction of the asymmetry varies across stages of prices but prices respond asymmetrically with respect to the size of the change in the exchange rate, adjusting their invoice prices only when there are large changes in the exchange rate. Third, the exchange rate pass-through into CPI is smaller than import and producer prices. To examine how closely inflation environment changes are related with inflation targeting adoption and the increase of openness, the rolling estimation approach is applied. Results demonstrate that the exchange rate pass-through into CPI falls persistently and apparently while the exchange rate pass-through into import price rises. These results support Taylor’s (2000) arguments and that external factors have had a sizable inflationary effect in Korea.

온라인 커뮤니티 참여 고령자 간 공유된 의미구조 분석: 의미연결망 분석을 중심으로

차혜경 ( Hye Kyung Cha ),기영화 ( Kee Young Hwa ) 한국사회복지정책학회 2014 사회복지정책 Vol.41 No.4

본 연구는 온라인 커뮤니티에 참여하는 고령자들의 삶에 대한 이해와 공유된 의미를 탐색적으로 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 온라인 고령자 커뮤니티 아름다운 5060과 아름다운 60대를 대상으로, 자유게시판에 게재된 텍스트를 내용 분석하여 주요어를 선정하고, 주요어 간의 관계를 의미연결망 분석을 통해 구조적 특성과 공유된 의미를 비교분석 하였다. 연구결과 두 개의 온라인 고령자 커뮤니티의 구조적 특성은 ‘어머니, 자녀, 감사, 건강’ 등의 단어가 전체 네트워크의 중심에 위치하여 문맥의 흐름에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 구조적 형태는 거의 유사한 모형으로 나타났다. 공유된 의미에서 고령자는 온라인 커뮤니티를 통해 일상적인 삶이야기를 공유하고, 오프라인 모임을 통해 관계를 맺으며, 건강하고 행복한 노년기를 위하여 운동을 하고, 서로 격려하는 공동체 활동을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 고령자가 전 생애에 걸쳐 신체적ㆍ정서적ㆍ인지적ㆍ사회적 발달을 하는 학습 과정에 있음을 시사하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 정보사회의 새로운 생활공간인 온라인 커뮤니티에 참여하는 고령층에 주목하고, 이들을 사람들과의 관계 맺기를 넘어 사회활동에 참여하는 활동적 고령자로 인식하게 한다. 이에 본 연구는 고령층의 사회참여를 지원하고 사회적 연결에 도움을 주는 사회복지 정책에 시사점을 제공하고자 하였다. This research was done to discover the understanding and the shared meaning of life for older adults participating in the online community. For this observation, the key words were selected from the texts recorded on the bulletin board in the representative online communities for elders, “The Beautiful 5060” and “The Beautiful 60s”, and their structural characteristics and shared meanings were evaluated through the semantic network analysis. The result showed that, from the centrality analysis, the structural characteristics of the two online communities were dominated by the words “mother, sons and daughters, appreciate, health” and many others in the total network structure, and the structural forms appeared to be similar. Also, the shared meaning among the older adults was to share everyday life stories and entering into relationships through offline meetings, to exercise for a healthy and enriched senescence, and to maintain a community of encouragement through the online community. These results suggest that a senior citizen experiences physical, emotional, cognitive, and societal developments through the course of his or her entire lifespan. Therefore, an implication to a social welfare policy for their connection into the society was to be provided in order to focus on the older adults who are participating in online communities, the novel living space in the information society, and help lead them to form connections with people of similar interests and furthermore expedite their social activities.

환율변동의 낮은 소비자물가의 전가요인 분석

차혜경 ( Hye Kyung Cha ) 한국재정정책학회 2012 財政政策論集 Vol.14 No.3

본 연구는 산업별 수입물가와 소비자물가를 이용하여 장단기 환율전가율을 추정한 후, 소비자물가의 환율전가율이 경계가격인 수입물가에 비하여 낮게 나타나는 현상을 확인하였다. 이러한 낮은 소비자물가의 환율전가율의 원인을 다음의 세가지 요인 즉, 유통마진, 수입투입요소비율, 비무역재가 차지하는 비중을 통해 분석하였다. 이론적으로 유통마진이 높을수록, 비무역재 비중이 클수록 환율전가는 낮아지고, 수입투입비중이 커질수록 환율전가는 높아진다고 한다. 분석한 결과, 상대적으로 높은 유통마진과 높은 비무역재 비율이 낮은 소비자물가의 환율전가율을 설명하는 주요원인이라는 사실을 파악하였다. 본 연구는 산업별로 유통마진의 크기와 수입투입요소의 비율, 비무역재의 비중을 시간별로 정리하여 기존 연구와는 차별성을 갖는다. 분석결과는 한국은행이 물가안정정책을 입안할 때 유통구조의 변화와 시장의 안정성을 동시에 고려할 필요가 있다는 것을 시사하고 있다. Border prices of traded goods(import price at the industry level in Korea) are highly sensitive to exchange rates, but the CPI is more stable. In this paper decomposes the sources of this stability for CPI, focusing on the important roles of distribution margins, the portion of nontraded goods and imported inputs in transmitting exchange rate fluctuations into consumer prices. I provide cross-industry details on distribution margins and their sensitivity to exchange rates, imported inputs used in different categories of consumption goods, and weights in consumption of nontradables, home tradables and imported goods. This paper find that the factor of the causes in the low exchange rate pass-through into CPI. The result that higher distribution margins and the higher portion of nontraded goods are associated with lower pass-through is consistent with the main theoretical results of Burstein et. al(2003). This study have the differentiation from the existing papers in that the exploration of the causes in the exchange rate pass-through into CPI.

일반논문 : 산업별 환율전가의 비대칭성 연구

차혜경 ( Hye Kyung Cha ) 한국여성경제학회 2011 여성경제연구 Vol.8 No.2

본 연구는 산업별 수출물가와 수입물가를 이용하여 장단기 환율전가를 추정하여 수출물가는 변동환율제 이후 하락하고 있으며 이러한 하락이 주로 환율하락기에 일어났다는 사실을 확인하였다. 수입물가는 변동환율제 이후 환율전가가 상승하였으며 이는 수입물가의 대부분의 산업에서 일어나고 있었으며 일관적인 산업별 방향 비대칭성은 존재하지 않았다. 크기 비대칭성은 전 기간의 수출물가지수는 작은 환율변동에 크게 반응하는 것으로 나타났지만 변동환율제 이후의 수출물가의 환율전가와 수입물가의 경우에는 큰 폭의 환율변화에 반응을 크게 하는 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 보다 정교한 환율전가의 추정으로 가격결정과 방향비대칭성보다 크기 비대칭성이 우선시 되어 통화정책 수립시 환율의 변화크기에 따른 정책이 필요하다는 시사점을 갖는다. This paper investigates changes in the extent of exchange rate pass-through into export price and import price at the industry level in Korea. Empirical results show that export prices have become less responsive to the exchange rate since adoption of floating exchange rate system but import prices have more responsive to the exchange rate. This paper finds direction of the change in the exchange rate matter for pass through in export price but not in import price. The estimation result finds that the direction of the asymmetry varies across industries but firms respond asymmetrically with respect to the size of the change in the exchange rate, adjusting their invoice prices only when there are large changes in the exchange rate. This study have the differentiation from the existing papers in that the accuracy in the exchange rate pass-through.

수입물가의 환율전가 결정요인 분석

차혜경 ( Hye Kyung Cha ) 한국경제학회 2008 經濟學硏究 Vol.56 No.4

환율변동에 따른 동아시아 국가의 수출가격설정 연구

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha) 한국무역연구원 2017 무역연구 Vol.13 No.6

Export pricing setting estimation was performed as a result of estimating the exchange rate pass-through of long and short term export prices from 1993 to 2016 of three countries, namely, South Korea, China and Japan. Findings show that in spite of the sharp decline in yen value caused by the implementation of Japan’s Abenomics policy, the exchange rate pass-through of export price of South Korea increased. It can be concluded that South Korea’s exporting companies have made pricing to market (PTM), which changes the rate of Korean won through markup adjustment instead of changing the dollar-denominated export price. Moreover, the exchange rate pass-through of the yuan-denominated export price of China is much lower than that of South Korea and Japan, as the exchange rate is stable. However, when China appreciates or depreciates the yuan, the volatility of the exchange rate is very high, and the exchange rate pass-through of export price is also significantly shifted. In addition, since the introduction of Abenomics policy, the exchange rate pass-through of Japanese export prices has also increased. In the case of Japan, it seemed to pay more attention to improving export profitability by actively raising the yen price and passively reducing the price of the contract.

수출구조 변화와 환율전가 연구

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha) 한국무역연구원 2020 무역연구 Vol.16 No.2

Purpose– The purpose of this research was to analyzes the structural changes in the export market by identifying the causes of the weakening of the relationship between exchange rates and exports and the causes of the decline in export growth rates since the 2010s. Design/methodology/approach– This research used quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2018 of KSIC export prices and export volume in Korea with first stage regressions long-run Dynamic OLS and second stage regressions short-run Error Correction Model. Findings–The results are follows. First, it was found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through was lower in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Second, both the export price exchange rate pass-through and the export volume exchange rate pass-through by industry showed the highest rates specifically in the steel industry. Thus, the steel industry seems to have maintained its price competitiveness as the Korea-Japan, Korea-China Export Similarity indices. Lastly, it was confirmed that both export price and export volume became more sensitive to global economic variables, which are non-price competition factors. Research implications or Originality– This research analyzed the causes of the decline in the export growth rate through the changes in export prices and export volumes due to intensified export competition since the 2010s. This research differs from previous researches in that it confirmed the relationship between exchange rates and exports through empirical analysis of external factors of structural change in the export market.