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기후변화에 따른 기온상승이 한반도 동남지역 국지 기상장과 오존 분포에 미치는 영향에 관한 수치모의
정여민 ( Yeo Min Jeong ),이화운 ( Hwa Woon Lee ),이순환 ( Soon Hwan Lee ),최현정 ( Hyun Jung Choi ),전원배 ( Won Bae Jeon ) 한국환경과학회 2010 한국환경과학회지 Vol.19 No.12
In order to clarify the impact of regional warming on the meteorological field and air quality over southeastern part of Korean Peninsula, several numerical experiment were carried out. Numerical models used in this study are WRF for the estimate the meteorological elements and CMAQ for assessment of ozone concentration. According to the global warming impact, initial air temperature were changed and its warming rate reach at 2 degree which was based on the global warming scenarios provided by IPCC. The experiments considering the global warming at initial stage were presented as case T_UP. Air temperature over inland area during night time for case T_UP is higher than that for Base case. During time since the higher temperature over inland area is maintained during daytime more intensified sea breeze should be induced and also decrease the air temperature in vicinity of coast area. In case of T_UP, high level concentrations ozone distribution area was narrowed and their disappearance were faster after 1800LST. As a results, wind and temperature fields due to the global warming at initial stage mainly results in the pattern of ozone concentration and its temporal variation at South-Eastern Part of the Korean Peninsula.
수도권 배출량 저감에 따른 오존 발생 과정 분석에 관한 수치연구
정여민 ( Yeo Min Jeong ),이순환 ( Soon Hwan Lee ),이화운 ( Hwa Woon Lee ),전원배 ( Won Bae Jeon ) 한국환경과학회 2012 한국환경과학회지 Vol.21 No.3
In order to clarify the impact of emissions reductions on the air quality over Metropolitan area of Korean Peninsula, several numerical experiment and analysis of integrated process rate(IPR) of ozone were carried out. Numerical models used in this study are WRF for the estimate the meteorological elements and CMAQ for assessment of ozone concentration. As result in the sensitive test of VOC/NOx reduction experiments, although VOC reduction tends to induce the different impact on the advection and photochemical reaction rate of ozone in urban area and rural area, the mechanism of ozone appeared to be more sensitive to the reduction of VOC than that of NOx over the metropolitan and its surround area. So the control of VOC emission inventories is an effective means to decrease the ozone concentrations around this area.
기후변화에 따른 도시별 기상기여도 차이가 고농도 오존분포에 미치는 영향
정여민 ( Yeo Min Jeong ),이화운 ( Hwa Woon Lee ),최현정 ( Hyun Jung Choi ) 한국환경과학회 2011 한국환경과학회지 Vol.20 No.3
In order to clarify the impact of regional warming on the ozone concentration according to the differences in meteorological contribution in each city over the South-Eastern part of the Korean Peninsula, several numerical experiments were carried out. WRF-CMAQ model was used to access the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day. Meteorological contributions estimated by WRF command a reasonable feature on the dispersion of ozone concentrations in each city according to regional warming. This causes a difference in estimated ozone concentration. A higher ozone concentration difference tend to be forecasted in coastal cities than in upcountry city. Therefore, the emission reduction policy according to the regional warming should consider the characteristics of meteorological contribution of each city.
남한지역 주요도시의 여름철 기온의 통계적 규모축소와 역학적 규모축소의 비교
이효진,정여민,양유빈 한국자료분석학회 2013 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.15 No.6
Downscaling methods in meteorology are used for obtaining finer grid-scale data from large-scale data. In this study, two different downscaling methods are used and compared by a case study. The first method is statistical downsclaing using a moving window and simple linear regression which is developed by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). The second approach is using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, a popular model used for dynamical downscaling. These models are initialized by the APCC CCSM3 as a global climate model (GCM). Summer season (JUN, JUL, AUG, mean of JUN to AUG) temperature prediction from 2001 to 2010 in Seoul and Busan is used for case study. The Wilcoxon signed rank test is applied to give significance to the differences between the observed data and results of the each model. Statistical downscaling results have no differences in both regions during the summer season at the 5% significance level. However, dynamical downscaling results have a significant difference (p-value<0.05) in all cases. 기상학에서의 규모축소법이란 대규모의 성근 격자의 기후 자료를 이용하여 더욱 조밀한 격자의 기후 값을 구하는 방법이다. 본 연구는 통계적 방법과 역학적 방법으로 시행되는 두 가지 규모축소법에 대하여 사례 연구를 통한 비교에 목적이 있다. 첫 번째로 사용된 규모축소법은 APEC기후센터(APCC)에서 개발한 통계적 방법으로 관측 자료와 예측자료사이에 가장 높은 선형상관을 나타내는 지역과 최적 기후변수를 선정하여 회귀모델을 적합하는 방법이다. 다른 하나인 역학적 규모축소 방법은 널리 쓰이는 중규모 모형(weather research and forecasting model)을 사용하여 기후인자들 사이의 물리적 산술식을 이용하여 해상도를 높이는 방법이다. 두 모델에 사용되는 대규모 격자자료는 APCC에서 생산되는 접합모형(community climate system model version3)자료를 사용하였다. 2001년부터 2010년까지 서울과 부산의 여름철 실 관측 온도를 사례연구로 정하여 두 가지 방법을 적용하고 비교하였다. 각 도시의 분석시점은 4가지(6월, 7월, 8월, 여름철평균)로 나누어 시행하였으며, 비모수 대응자료 차이검정법인 Wilcoxon 부호순위검정을 시행하였다. 그 결과, 서울 부산지역의 여름철 규모축소에서는 통계적 방법의 결과가 실 관측치와 유의수준 5%에서 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났으며, 역학적 방법은 모든 경우에 매우 유의한 차이(p-value<0.05)가 있는 것으로 나타났다.