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      • 한·중 농업정책시뮬레이션모형 구축 연구

        한석호(Suk-Ho Han),전형진(Hyung-Jin Jeon),승준호(Jun-Ho Seung),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

        With a 2010 population of more than 1.35 billion people, China is home to roughly 20 percent of the world’s inhabitants. This fact alone makes China’s demand for agricultural products a huge factor in how world prices of agricultural commodities behave. However, not only is China’s percentage of world population large, its share of world GDP is growing. With China’s real GDP expressed in U.S. dollars more than doubling from 2003 to 2010, China’s share of world GDP has increased from 4.0 percent in 2002 to 7.4 percent in 2010. Considering that agricultural producers in China are also facing constraints on the availability of land and water, which will make it difficult to sustain large increases in their agricultural production base, large jumps in demand for agricultural products within China could have profound effect on world markets, affecting other nations who are major suppliers or major importers of these goods. This study analyzed direct and indirect impacts of structural change in the supply and demand side of Chinese agriculture on the Korean economy based on the combination of the following models: China"s Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSIM), the modeling system of Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute(FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia in the U.S., and Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KREI-KASMO). In order to better understand the impact of Chinese agriculture and agricultural policies on Korean agriculture, we tried to forecast the long-term outlook of Chinese agriculture for 13 agricultural commodities on the supply and demand side based on CAPSIM through a co-project between the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI). Unfortunately, CAPSIM did not cover vegetables and fruits yet, so we tried to build structural models on these items and added some modules to CAPSIM to predict the future. In addition, through a co-project between Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri-Columbia (FAPRI-MU) and KREI, this study calculated the global impact of China"s structural change in demand in terms of price and trade volume. This analysis considered how a 10 percent increase in China’s domestic consumption of seven different commodities(rice, corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean products, beef, pork and chicken) would impact the world prices of these products, internal Chinese prices, and production and consumption of these goods within China as well as the rest of the world. To assess the changes from stronger than expected income levels in China, an additional study is conducted in which China’s real GDP is allowed to increase 10 percent. It is important to note that this analysis assumes that any increase in Chinese domestic consumption above and beyond production increases results in increased net imports. While the government has a history of using trade barriers to protect China’s domestic industries(some industries have been protected more than others), this analysis assumes that all additional demand will be met by increases in Chinese production or more imports. No assumptions are made about increased levels of trade protection. We anticipate that this study is a meaningful first-stage project to establish a world model to prepare for various FTAs and make supply-demand projections on world grain market for stabilization of domestic prices.

      • KCI등재

        다양한 실내환경 중 휘발성유기화합물 오염의 패턴 분류

        김윤신,노영만,이철민,김기연,김종철,전형진,Kim, Yoon-Shin,Roh, Young-Man,Lee, Cheol-Min,Kim, Ki-Youn,Kim, Jong-Cheol,Jun, Hyung-Jin 한국환경보건학회 2007 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.33 No.1

        The purpose of this study was to survey the distribution patterns of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) and formaldehyde in the various indoor environments using cluster analysis. We investigated VOCs and formaldehyde in subway stations, underground shopping areas, medical centers, maternity recuperation centers, public childcare centers, large stores, funeral houses, and indoor parking lots from June,2005 to May,2006. Concentration of TVOCs in maternity recuperations was 2,605.7 ${\mu}g/m^3$ that was higher than the guideline and other facilities. TVOCs in public childcare centers was 1,951.6 ${\mu}g/m^3$ also it exceeded the guideline. Moreover, concentration of TVOCs in every facility exceeded the guideline of Department of Environment, Korea. In case of formaldehyde, mean concentration, 336.5 ${\mu}g/m^3$, in only public childcare centers exceeded the 120 ${\mu}g/m^3$ of the guideline. Finally, by applying cluster analysis, three pattterns of the indoor air pollutions were distinguished. In the results of analysis, concentrations of TVOCs and formaldehyde of cluster 3 were higher than cluster 1 and 2 that were 2,561.4 ${\mu}g/m^3$ and 184.9 ${\mu}g/m^3$, respectively.

      • KCI등재

        신축공동주택내 실내유해공기오염물질(HAPs)의 건강위해성평가

        김종철,김윤신,노영만,홍승철,이철민,전형진,Kim, Jong-Cheol,Kim, Yoon-Shin,Roh, Young-Man,Hong, Seung-Cheol,Lee, Cheol-Min,Jun, Hyung-Jin 한국환경보건학회 2007 한국환경보건학회지 Vol.33 No.1

        This study accomplished to grasp the present condition of HAPs and to examine efficiently carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects through health risk assessment in new apartments from June, 2004 to May,2005. Moreover, we performed uncertainty analysis by Monte-Carlo analysis to control uncertainty of exposure factors. The major results obtained from this study were as follows. Firstly, cancer risk of formaldehyde for male was $1.67{\times}10^{-5}$ in CTE in point estimation. Cancer risk of formaldehyde was showed $2.94{\times}10^{-3}$ in RME that applied worst case used results of 95 percentile in point estimation. It exceeds $10^{-6}$ of guide line in US EPA. Moreover, cancer risks of formaldehyde for female were $3.98{\times}10^{-5}$ in CTE and $3.93{\times}10^{-3}$ RME. Secondly, every hazard index for non-carcinogenic pollutants was less than 1 of permitted standards in CTE. However, in RME of male, hazard indexes of 1,2-Dichloropropane and Toluene were 1.3 and 2.0, respectively. Hazard indexes of 1,2-Dichloropropane and Totuene for female in RME were 1.7 and 2.6, respectively.

      • 화장장내 실내공기질 조사

        김윤신(Yoon Shin Kim),노영만(Young Man Roh),이철민(Cheol Min Lee),김종철(Jong Cheol Kim),전형진(Hyung Jin Jun),이소담(So Dam Lee),김홍렬(Hong Ryeol Kim),이만규(Man Gyu Lee) 한국실내환경학회 2005 한국실내환경학회지 Vol.2 No.1

        Nowadays, cremation is becoming generalized and also the frequency of utilization of cremation is increasing in Korea. Futhermore, there is a possibility that indoor air pollution is caused by particles, gas pollutants or microbial pollutants from laying down and cremation of corpses, and also the bereaved family and grievers inside the crematory. Therefore, the major goals in this study were that first, we investigated and analyzed the air quality of particular indoor environments such as the crematory. Second, we assessed the health risk for workers. Finally, we collected and assessed the basic data in special indoor environments because this kind of study had not been performed. We sampled and analyzed PM₁? (heavy metal), VOCS, HCHO, infectious microorganisms to grasp the characteristics of indoor air quality in the crematory through sampling four times from 7th July to 16th October in 2004. Besides, we did personal air sampling of PM₁? (heavy metal) and VOCS to grasp personal exposure of workers from indoor hazardous air pollutants. We conjectured that main sources of pollutants in crematory are cremation, buried corpses, and moving of grievers, also increasing the seriousness of microbial pollutants gathering strength, especially. As we assessed infectious microorganisms of indoor air and executed research for indoor hazardous air pollutants, we want to offer the way of study and policy of management for particular indoor environments like a crematory.

      • 다중이용시설에서의 실내공기질 조사

        김윤신(Yoon Shin Kim),노영만(Young Man Roh),홍승철(Seung-Cheol Hong),이철민(Choel Min Lee),전형진(Hyung Jin Jun),김종철(Jong Choel Kim),조정현(Jung Hyun Cho) 한국실내환경학회 2005 한국실내환경학회지 Vol.1 No.2

        This study was performed to investigate the characteristics of indoor air quality (IAQ) in 30 public facilities from February to April, 2004 in Seoul. The collected samples are PM₁?, formaldehyde, and total suspended bacteria in indoor air and measured by the IAQ standard method of Ministry of Environment in Korea(M.E.K). As the results of the survey, the mean concentration of PM₁? was 55.19 ㎍/㎥ in indoor air and 51.15 ㎍/㎥ in outdoor air. The mean concentration of PM₁? in the Kindergarten was higher than the IAQ standards by established by M.E.K. The mean concentration of formaldehyde was 43.08 ㎍/㎥ in indoor air and 5.05 ㎍/㎥ in outdoor air, respectively. All of them were less than IAQ standards of Korea. The concentration of total suspended bacteria in the streamer room was higher than IAQ standards. The concentration of formaldehyde was different according to the year of construction of building. Total suspended bacteria in streamer room was necessary for control. Moreover, this study was for investigation a part of indoor air pollution condition in public facilities. It means that this study can"t represent for all of public facilities. Therefore, we suggest that long and middle term country plan for management of IAQ should be established through long-term and continuous investigation of IAQ condition.

      • SCOPUSKCI등재

        각화극세포종과 각화극세포종양 편평상피세포암에서 p53 단백과 Ki-67 항원의 발현에 관한 연구

        김동준,손숙자,전형진 대한피부과학회 2000 大韓皮膚科學會誌 Vol.38 No.7

        Background: Differential diagnosis of keratoacanthoma(KA) from squamous cell carcinoma(SCC) is often difficult, especially when SCC has KA-like features(KA-like SCC). A number of recent studies have been attempted to separate these two entities with the use of immunohistochemical stains. But the results were inconsistent and the studies with KA-like SCC are rarely reported. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the expression patterns of p53 protein and Ki-67 antigen on KA and KA-like SCC using immunohistochemical staining method and to evaluate the usefulness of this method in distinguishing each other. Methods: We performed immunoperoxidase staining(LSAB technique) using monoclonal antibody to p53 protein(PAb1801) and Ki-67 antigen(MIB1) on the formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsy specimens obtained from 12 patients with KA, 8 patient with KA-like SCC, and 10 patients with well-differentiated SCC. Results: The results were as follows; 1) There was a significant difference in the p53 expression between KA(25%) and SCC group (KA-like SCC=88%, SCC=100%). 2) Mean Ki-67 labeling index was slightly higher for SCC group(KA-like SCC=30.72%, SCC= 31.23%) than for KA(25.30%), but this difference was not statistically significant. 3) In Ki-67 expression, KA showed more pheriperal basal pattern(91%), whereas SCC group showed more diffuse pattern(77%). Conclusion: Our results suggest that KA and SCC are distinct entities of different nature and that these immunohistochemical staining methods can be useful methods in differentiating KA-like SCC from KA.

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