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이성덕,김인규,김덕기,정애란,Lee, Sung-Duck,Kim, In-Kyu,Kim, Duk-Ki,Chung, Ae-Ran 한국통계학회 2009 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.16 No.1
공간시계열모형은 공간의 위치와 시간의 흐름에 따라 동시에 관측되는 분야인 기상, 지질, 천문, 생태, 역학 등에서 넓이 사용되고 있는 매우 복잡한 모형이다. 본 논문은 공간시계열모형에 대한 모수 추정에 있어서 기존의 최대우도추정 방법이 가지는 컴퓨팅의 문제를 해결하기 위하여 모수에 대한 사전정보와 자료의 정보를 모두 이용하는 깁스샘플링과 같은 MCMC 방법으로 모수를 추정하고, 실제 적용사례분석으로 여러 가지 측도를 구해서 추정된 모수에 대한 수렴진단을 수행하였다. Spatial time series data can be viewed either as a set of time series collected simultaneously at a number of spatial locations. In this paper, We estimate the parameters of spatial time autoregressive moving average (SIARMA) process by method of Gibbs sampling. Finally, We apply this method to a set of U.S. Mumps data over a 12 states region.
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영국지방자치제도(英國地方自治制度)의 현대적(現代的) 전개(展開) -1972년의 개정법(改正法)을 중심(中心)으로-
이성덕 ( Sung Duk Lee ) 東亞大學校附設 石堂傳統文化硏究院 1983 石堂論叢 Vol.7 No.-
Local government in Britain is the responsibility of elected local authorities which are the democratic representatives of their areas and provide local services under specific powers conferred by Parliament. Government on a local basis has been part of the administrative system of the country for many centuries. The concept of a comprehensive system of councils locally elected to manage various services provided for the benefit of the community was first incorporated in statute law in the late nineteenth century, when local authorities` functions were centred on public health, highway, the police and regulatory duties. The authorities have since also become responsible for education, housing and most of the environmental health and personal social services, traffic administration, planning, fire services, libraries and many minor functions. During the present century this increasing range of local authority functions eventually gave rise to a need for radical reform of the basic pattern of local government. Local government in Greater London was reorganised in 1964, and in the rest of England and Wales in 1974. A similar reorganisation was completed in Scotland in 1975. Changes in the structure and functions of local government in Northern Ireland were made in 1973. England and Wales now have two tiers of local authorities everywhere. In England there are variants for `metropolitan` and `non-metropolitan` areas. The `metropolitan` system applies to six conurbations outside London, and resembles the local government system in Greater London. The `non-metropolitan` system applies elsewhere in England; the system in Wales is similar to the latter. In a word, this paper has argued that the structure of English local government has changed over the last hundred years in response to a number of social, economic, and political changes. As a result of changes, the localty and the centre have become closely entwined. This has meant that English local government has become delocalised so that efficiency criterion has become preferred rather than the earlier stress on local democracy.
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이성덕 ( Sung Duk Lee ) 한국대학선교학회 2012 대학과 선교 Vol.22 No.-
John Wesley’s Standard Sermons and Explanatory Notes upon the New Testament was the official doctrinal documents which characterized Methodism. It was rather Collections of Psalms and Hymns than these that more strongly moved the people and vitalized the early methodist movement. Actually, “Methodism was born in song.” A Collection of Psalms and Hymns was a very effective tool to evoke an ardent spirit of praise in the hearts of many Methodists and to educate them. At this process, German Pietistic Hymns have made a considerable contribution to John Wesley``s theological thinking and the movement. The subjective quality of German hymns reached its culmination in the works by Pietists, which emphasized the tension between the transcendence of God and the personal relationship in repentance, conversion and assurance of salvation. The 33 hymns translated and accepted by John Wesley came from both Hymnals edited by A. J. Freylinghausen in Halle and Hymnals by N. L. v. Zinzendorf in Herrnhut. Although German Pietistic Hymns have taken a relatively small part in Collection of Psalms and Hymns in comparison with English hymns, they have much impacted on the formation of John Wesley’s theological thinking and Methodism.
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정책결정(政策決定)에 있어서의 집단모형(集團模型)에 관한 연구(硏究)
이성덕 ( Sung Duk Lee ),방정항 ( Jung Hang Bang ) 東亞大學校附設 石堂傳統文化硏究院 1978 石堂論叢 Vol.2 No.-
As its title indicates, this study is designed to serves two purposes. The first purpose is to describe a set of theoretical models as a frame of reference for policy-making. The second is to analyze especially the utility and limitation of the group model in modern societal context. Because the influence of groups, as a mojor participant of policy making process, is so great that we cannot fully understand the policy phenomena except the group dynamics. The general outline of this study is as follows; after tracing the problem-discussed and the reasons why the group study is the most necessary part for the study of policy-making in Chapter I, we concentrated all our effort to examine a set of models for the analysis of public policy, without trying to determine which is best in Chater II. In terms of policy-models, the elite, group and institutional models emphasis on the process or activities involved in making a policy. To the extent that they describe how policy-makings are made by individuals, groups and institutions, they are empirical and descriptive rather than prescriptive in tone. But the rational-comprehensive, incremental and mixed-scanning models of policy-making attempt to analyze the outputs and effects of public policy, so that they are concerned to the efforts to prescribe ways to prove the content of policy-making by presentation of "how decision should be made." In reviewing briefly both processual and the output oriented thrusts of policy-making, our aim is simply that, to review and to direct toward raising questions rather than providing definitive answers. In Chapter III, we extended a more detailed discussion of group model on the consideration that the study of group behavior comes out to be the most useful components for the practical analysis of political and administrative process. In this thesis, what is concerned with us was the function and role of the groups, especially the interest groups as policy-aspiration groups or demand-groups. And then, in order to adequate understanding of interest groups` activities and the style of group action for policy-making, we suggested the ways and methods of group interests-articulation. The utility criteria of group model wad the subject tatter of chapter IV. In the case of practical application of group model in complex societal context, it is containly hard to install the criteria with which to effectuate the policy goals. In our concern with this, however, the general concept of political culture could be introduced as a criteria to judge the group model`s utility. Because it can regulate the functional autonomy of group activities as well as to reflect the fundamental ethos of a nation. Also we should be careful not neglect the facts that the major characteristics of group structure and policy-making institution of a particular situation could be operate as a criteria to judge thee utility of group model. Finally, in Chapter V, we dealed with the conclusions of this study as follows. First, the utility and limitation of policy-making models can be judged in connection with the policy-environment. Second, at the present time, group model is indentified as a very realistic operational tools for effective policy-making owing to the development of modern society which is distinguished by highly industrialized and functionally differentiated society. Third, particularly group model is widely used in pluralistic democratic society for policy-marking, but in case of non-western countries, this model can be served as a guideline for the political development. Fourth, In so far as the utility of group model can be judged by political culture, the characteristics of the group structure and policy making institution, if a nation is endowed with the participation political culture, he stabilized group structure and got service-oriented bureaucracy, the utility of group model is more increased at all points.
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이성덕(Sung-Duk Lee) 연세대학교 신과대학(연합신학대학원) 2018 신학논단 Vol.93 No.-
This article aims to explore Marsilius of Padua`s criticism of Pope and church power. The struggle between Pope and emperor over the Middle Ages led to the political turbulence of Western Europe for hundreds of years. In this situation, Marsilius criticized the Pope"s secular power, and he completely denied the authority of the Pope`s claim to secular power, and he demanded that Church should obey secular authority. His thoughts are well reflected in his major work, Defendor pacis(Defender of peace). He claimed that it was the power of Pope and his Church to disturb the peace, namely the purpose of nation. He saw that all power came from God, but that God had placed the work of the human world under the responsibility of man himself. He made a radical argument to change the workings of the divine law to the afterlife. He can be said to have made theology the handmaiden of political philosophy, given that he gave the nation the authority man had previously given to the Pope and the Vatican. But what should not be mistaken is that he was not a non-christian liberal thinker who rejected Christianity. His ideas and his whole political theory were embedded in the belief and spirit of the Middle Ages of Christianity. At the center of his political theory lies the legitimacy of civic representatives and the law. The basis of these two concepts is the will of the citizen as a whole(universitas civium). This is the only reason to fear the law, elect a representative and fire him again. With this, he established the ideology of Civil Sovereignty. Although he did not abandon his christian faith, he preoccupied modernity by criticizing the pope and church power and by positioning the church in the oder of the secular world more strongly than Reformer Martin Luther. This article aims to explore Marsilius of Padua`s criticism of Pope and church power. The struggle between Pope and emperor over the Middle Ages led to the political turbulence of Western Europe for hundreds of years. In this situation, Marsilius criticized the Pope"s secular power, and he completely denied the authority of the Pope`s claim to secular power, and he demanded that Church should obey secular authority. His thoughts are well reflected in his major work, Defendor pacis(Defender of peace). He claimed that it was the power of Pope and his Church to disturb the peace, namely the purpose of nation. He saw that all power came from God, but that God had placed the work of the human world under the responsibility of man himself. He made a radical argument to change the workings of the divine law to the afterlife. He can be said to have made theology the handmaiden of political philosophy, given that he gave the nation the authority man had previously given to the Pope and the Vatican. But what should not be mistaken is that he was not a non-christian liberal thinker who rejected Christianity. His ideas and his whole political theory were embedded in the belief and spirit of the Middle Ages of Christianity. At the center of his political theory lies the legitimacy of civic representatives and the law. The basis of these two concepts is the will of the citizen as a whole(universitas civium). This is the only reason to fear the law, elect a representative and fire him again. With this, he established the ideology of Civil Sovereignty. Although he did not abandon his christian faith, he preoccupied modernity by criticizing the pope and church power and by positioning the church in the oder of the secular world more strongly than Reformer Martin Luther.
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