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TFNM, ANN, ANFIS를 이용한 국가지하수관측망 지하수위 변동 예측 비교 연구
윤필선,윤희성,김용철,김규범,Yoon, Pilsun,Yoon, Heesung,Kim, Yongcheol,Kim, Gyoo-Bum 한국지하수토양환경학회 2014 지하수토양환경 Vol.19 No.3
It is important to predict the groundwater level fluctuation for effective management of groundwater monitoring system and groundwater resources. In the present study, three different time series models for the prediction of groundwater level in response to rainfall were built, those are transfer function noise model (TFNM), artificial neural network (ANN), and adaptive neuro fuzzy interference system (ANFIS). The models were applied to time series data of Boen, Cheolsan, and Hongcheon stations in National Groundwater Monitoring Network. The result shows that the model performance of ANN and ANFIS was higher than that of TFNM for the present case study. As lead time increased, prediction accuracy decreased with underestimation of peak values. The performance of the three models at Boen station was worst especially for TFNM, where the correlation between rainfall and groundwater data was lowest and the groundwater extraction is expected on account of agricultural activities. The sensitivity analysis for the input structure showed that ANFIS was most sensitive to input data combinations. It is expected that the time series model approach and results of the present study are meaningful and useful for the effective management of monitoring stations and groundwater resources.
지하수위 시계열 예측 모델 기반 하천수위 영향 필터링 기법 개발 및 지하수 함양률 산정 연구
윤희성,박은규,김규범,하규철,윤필선,이승현,Yoon, Heesung,Park, Eungyu,Kim, Gyoo-Bum,Ha, Kyoochul,Yoon, Pilsun,Lee, Seung-Hyun 한국지하수토양환경학회 2015 지하수토양환경 Vol.20 No.3
A method to filter out the effect of river stage fluctuations on groundwater level was designed using an artificial neural network-based time series model of groundwater level prediction. The designed method was applied to daily groundwater level data near the Gangjeong-Koryeong Barrage in the Nakdong river. Direct prediction time series models were successfully developed for both cases of before and after the barrage construction using past measurement data of rainfall, river stage, and groundwater level as inputs. The correlation coefficient values between observed and predicted data were over 0.97. Using the time series models the effect of river stage on groundwater level data was filtered out by setting a constant value for river stage inputs. The filtered data were applied to the hybrid water table fluctuation method in order to estimate the groundwater recharge. The calculated ratios of groundwater recharge to precipitation before and after the barrage construction were 11.0% and 4.3%, respectively. It is expected that the proposed method can be a useful tool for groundwater level prediction and recharge estimation in the riverside area.
청원-충주지역 수막재배용 지하수 사용량 및 배출량 분석
문상호,하규철,김용철,윤필선 대한지질공학회 2013 지질공학 Vol.22 No.4
Korean agricultural areas that employ water curtain cultivation (WCC) have recently suffered extensive groundwater shortages due to an increase in the number of facilities. The primary focus of this study is to measure the daily groundwater use and discharge rates in the Cheongweon and Chungju pilot areas, while the second focus is to estimate the total amount of groundwater used in WCC areas nationwide in Korea. Taking into consideration several factors, including motor type, outflow abilities of wells, records of daily minimum temperatures below 0oC, and the number of running wells according to weather variations, we estimated that 53,138 m3/ha of groundwater had been used in the 4-hectare Cheongweon pilot area during the winter period of late 2011 through early 2012. On a prorated areal basis, we can calculate that the total groundwater used nationwide was 0.57 billion m3 in WCC areas of 10,746 m2. This value is equivalent to 33.7% of the total agricultural groundwater use (1.69 billion m3) in Korea. During 9-22 February 2012, the daily water discharge rate in the 4-ha Cheongweon pilot area ranged from 2,079 to 2,628 m3, averaging 2,341 m3. Combining this value with meteorological records for 94 days with a daily minimum temperature below 0oC results in an estimated groundwater volume of 54,990 m3/ha for the pilot area during the 2011-2012 winter period. The total amount of groundwater used nationwide in WCC areas would then be 0.59 billion m3, equivalent to 34.9% of the total agricultural groundwater use in Korea. In the Chungju area, the groundwater discharge rate was estimated to be less than 805 m3/ha. This value, combined with weather data for 108 days with a daily minimum temperature below 0oC in this area, can be applied to infer that the total groundwater volume used in WCC areas nationwide is no more than 55% of the total agricultural groundwater use in Korea. 국내 수막재배지는 시설 증대로 인한 지하수 취수량 감소의 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이 연구는 이들 지역 중 청원-충주지역을 대상으로 지하수 이용량 및 배출량을 측정하고, 이를 토대로 국내 수막재배지에서의 지하수 이용량을 추정하였다. 대표 관정들의 모터사양과 1일 지하수 토출 능력과의 관계, 1일 최저 기온 0oC 이하의 기록 일수, 최저 기온 변화에 따른 모터 가동 상황 등을 토대로 하여, 청원지역에서 2011년~2012년 겨울철 수막재배에 이용된 지하수 이용량을 추정하면 1 ha 당 53,138m3이 된다. 이에 의한면적 대비 국내 수막재배지(10,746 ha)의 지하수 이용 총량은 약 5.7억 m3이며, 이는 국내 농업용수 지하수 이용량 16.9억 m3의33.7%에 해당된다. 2012년 2월 9일부터 22일까지 면적 4 ha의 청원지역 배수로에서 측정한 1일 지하수 배출량은 2,079~2,628 m3범위(평균 2,341 m3)로서, 수막재배 면적 1 ha 당 1일 평균 지하수 배출량이 585m3인 것으로 나타났다. 수막재배 일수 94일을 적용하면, 청원지역에서 2011년~2012년 겨울철에 수막재배에 이용된 지하수 이용량은 54,990m3/ha이다. 이에 의한 면적 대비 국내수막재배지의 지하수 이용 총량은 약 5.9억 m3이며, 이는 전체 농업용수 지하수 이용량의 약 34.9%에 해당된다. 충주지역에서는수막재배지 1 ha 당 1일 지하수 배출량이 805 m3 미만일 것으로 추정되었다. 이 지역에서의 2011년~2012년 겨울철 수막재배 일수108일을 적용하면, 면적 대비 국내 수막재배지의 지하수 이용량은 전체 농업용수 지하수 이용량의 55% 미만일 것으로 추정된다.