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연구개발 부문 적정인력 산정을 위한 확률적 모형설계에 관한 연구
김종만 ( Chong Man Kim ),안정진 ( Jung Jin Ahn ),김병수 ( Byung Soo Kim ) 한국품질경영학회 2013 품질경영학회지 Vol.41 No.1
The purpose of this study was to design of a probabilistic model for optimum manpower planning in R&D department by Montecarlo simulation. Methods: We investigate the process and the requirement of manpower planning and scheduling in R&D department. The empirical distributions of necessary time and manpower for R&D projects are developed. From the empirical distributions, we can estimate a probability distribution of optimum manpower in R&D department. A simulation method of estimating the probability distribution of optimum manpower is considered. It is a useful tool for obtaining the sum, the variance and other statistics of the distributions. Results: The real industry cases are given and the properties of the model are investigated by Montecarlo Simulation. we apply the model to the research laboratory of the global company, and investigate and compensate the weak points of the model. Conclusion: The proposed model provides various and correct information such as average, variance, percentile, minimum, maximum and so on. A decision maker of a company can easily develop the future plan and the task of researchers may be allocated properly. we expect that the productivity can be improved by this study. The results of this study can be also applied to other areas including shipbuilding, construction, and consulting areas
김영구(Young-Gu Kim),최슬기(Seul-Gi Choi),안정진(Jung-Jin Ahn),이창언(Chang-Eon Lee) 한국가스학회 2015 한국가스학회지 Vol.19 No.3
중회귀분석을 사용하여 혼합연료가스의 탄화수소 이슬점(DT)을 구하였다. QSDR(Quantitative Structure Dew-point Relationship)에서 주요한 설명인자는 혼합연료가스 중의 평균탄소수(CN : carbon number)와 혼합연료가스 중의 가지달린 이성질체 비율(BI : the ratio of the branched isomer)이었다. 혼합연료가스의 압력을 100 ㎪ ~ 500 ㎪로 변화시키며 QSDR을 수행한 결과는 다음과 같다. DT(℃) = -683.1+1224.98CN - 898.01CN²+308.58CN³- 49.56CN⁴+3.02CN?-12.42BI(at 100 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (1) DT(℃)=-745.2+1351.66CN-978.1CN²+332.7CN³-52.96CN⁴+3.20CN?-12.84BI (at 200 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (2) DT(℃)=-795.4+1457.1CN-1051.1CN²+357.53CN³-57.07CN⁴+ 3.46CN?-13.10BI (at 300 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (3) DT(℃)=-868.1+1608.4CN-1156.0CN²+393.38CN³-63.06CN⁴+ 3.85CN?-13.39BI (at 500 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (4) 혼합연료 중의 평균탄소수의 값이 감소하거나 비점이 낮은 가지달린 이성질체의 비율이 증가할 때 탄화수소 이슬점이 낮아진다. 이 결과는 중회귀분석에 의하여 얻어진 탄화수소이슬점과 상용프로그램 VMGSim을 통하여 계산된 값과 유사하였다. The equations of hydrocarbon dew points(DT) of the fuel gas mixtures have been derived using the multiple regression analysis. In QSDR(Quantitative Structure Dew-point Relationship), the principal descriptors are CN(average carbon number) and BI(the ratio of the branched isomers). QSDRs studied by changing the pressures of the fuel gas mixtures in the range of 100 ㎪ ~ 500 ㎪ are as follows; DT(℃) = -683.1+1224.98CN - 898.01CN²+308.58CN³- 49.56CN⁴ +3.02CN?-12.42BI (at 100 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (1) DT(℃)=-745.2+1351.66CN-978.1CN²+332.7CN³-52.96CN⁴+3.20CN?-12.84BI (at 200 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (2) DT(℃)=-795.4+1457.1CN-1051.1CN²+357.53CN³-57.07CN⁴ + 3.46CN? - 13.10BI (at 300 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (3) DT(℃)=-868.1+1608.4CN-1156.0CN²+393.38CN³-63.06CN⁴ + 3.85CN? - 13.39BI (at 500 ㎪, R<SUB>adj</SUB>² = 0.99) (4) As the average carbon numbers in the mixed fuel being reduced or the ratio of the branched isomers having a boiling point lower increase, The hydrocarbon dew point becomes lower, The differences between the hydrocarbon-dew points determined by the multiple regression and those calculated by the commercial program, VMGSim are negligible.