Estimating Net Primary Productivity under Climate Change by Application of Global Forest Model (G4M)

성선용 인간식물환경학회 2016 인간식물환경학회지 Vol.19 No.6

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of the forest is highlighted as a key sector for mitigating climate change. The objective of this research is to estimate changes on the net primary productivity of forest in South Korea under the different climate change scenarios. The G4M (Global Forest Model) was used to estimate current NPP and future NPP trends in different climate scenarios. As input data, we used detailed (1 km × 1 km) downscaled monthly precipitation and average temperature from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios (2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5). We used MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP data for the model validation. Current NPP derived from G4M showed similar patterns with MODIS NPP data. Total NPP of forest increased in most of RCP scenarios except RCP 8.5 scenario because the average temperature increased by 5°C. In addition, the standard deviation of annual precipitation was the highest in RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation change in wider range could cause water stress on vegetation that affects decrease of forest productivity. We calculated future NPP change in different climate change scenarios to estimate carbon sequestration in forest ecosystem. If there was no biome changes in the future NPP will be deceases up to 90%. On the other hand, if proper biome change will be conducted, future NPP will be increased 50% according to scenarios

국가환경종합계획

성선용 국토연구원 2020 국토 : planning and policy Vol.459 No.-

미세먼지 농도의 공간적 현황 및 잠재영향인자를 고려한 환경계획적 대응 방향

성선용 한국환경복원기술학회 2020 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.23 No.1

Adverse impact of Particulate Matters(PM10, PM2.5; PMs) significantly affects daily lives. Major countermeasures for reducing concentration of PMs were focused on emission source without consider- ing spatial difference of PMs concentration. Thus, this study analyzed spatial·temporal distribution of PMs with observation data as well as potential contributing factors on PMs concentration. The annual average concentration of PMs have been decreased while the particulate matter warnings and alerts were significantly increased in 2018. The average concentration of PMs in spring and winter was high- er than the other seasons. Also, the spatial distribution of PMs were also showed seasonality while concentration of PMs were higher in Seoul-metropolitan areas in all seasons. Climate variables, emis- sion source, spatial structure and potential PM sinks were selected major factors which could affects on ambient concentrations of PMs. This paper suggest that countermeasures for mitigating PM concentration should consider characteristics of area. Climatic variables(temperature, pressure, wind speed etc.) affects concentrations of PMs. The effects of spatial structure of cities(terrain, ventilation corridor) and biological sinks(green infrastructure, urban forests) on concentration of PMs should be analyzed in further studies. Also, seasonality of PMs concentration should be considered for establishing effec- tive countermeasures to reduce ambient PMs concentration.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

성선용,권용수,이동근,조영호 한국곤충학회 2018 Entomological Research Vol.48 No.6

The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

생태정보의 공 유를 위 한 생태정보 포털서비스 (EcoBank) 구축 및 활 용 방안

성선용,권용수,김기동 한국수생태학회(구 한국하천호수학회) 2018 생태와 환경 Vol.51 No.3

연결성 분석을 활용한 산림의 주연부와 내부의 탄소저장량 비교

성선용,이동근,모용원 한국농촌계획학회 2015 농촌계획 Vol.21 No.4

Forest ecosystem is considered as an important stepping stone to minimize the impact of climate change. However, the rapid urbanization has caused fragmentation of forest ecosystem. The fragmentation of forest patch results in edge effect which brings about adverse impacts on forest function and structure. Degradation of forest ecosystem decreases carbon sequestration because edge effect reduces productivity. Therefore, we analyzed the impact of forest edge effect on forest ecosystem carbon stock change in Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do. We used connectivity analysis to determine forest edge and core area. The field study sites were selected with considering forest age, density, class and soil type. Secondly, forest carbon stock was calculated with allometric equation. The soil carbon stock was derived from Walkely-Black method. Lastly, Mann-Whitney test was conducted to validate differences between carbon stock in edge and core area. As a result of study, the connectivity analysis was effective to determine forest edge and core. The core and edge of forest patch showed different composition of tree species and soil properties. Carbon stock per tree in the edge area was lower than that in the core area. However, the difference of soil organic carbon content between the edge and core were relatively small. This assessment can be applied for the conservation of forest patch as well as quantitative assessment on the forest carbon stock change caused by fragmentation.

기후변화를 고려한 산림 수종 분포변화 예측의 불확실성 평가

성선용 서울대학교 환경대학원 2019 環境論叢 Vol.63 No.-

기후변화가 해안 관광목적지에 미치는 영향 분석 - 해수욕장의 활동선호일수 및 침수지역 변화를 중심으로 -

김태린,성선용,박진한,류지은 한국기후변화학회 2023 한국기후변화학회지 Vol.14 No.2

Coastal tourist destinations are highly vulnerable to climate change and its effects are seen in various parts of world. This study examines possible future changes in the costal tourist destinations of South Korea, focusing on changes in preferred weather conditions for beach activities and the expansion of flooding beaches due to sea level rise. The results show that days available for beach activities will be increased, but weather comfort for activity will be decreased. When it comes to the effects of sea level rise, beaches at the South Sea have high flooding potential, while beaches at the East Sea have low flooding probability. These findings suggest the need for location-specific adaption strategies to minimize climate change impacts.

“미세먼지 배출량을 줄이기 위한 국민 인식 개선이 필요합니다” - 문길주 미세먼지특별대책위원회 민간위원장, 과학기술연합대학원대학교(UST) 총장

문길주,성선용 국토연구원 2019 국토 : planning and policy Vol.452 No.-

도시 내 열환경 분석에서 무인항공기의 활용가능성

강다인,문호경,성선용,차재규 한국조경학회 2018 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.46 No.2

Urban heat islands occur due to increases in the extent of artificial surfaces such as concrete, asphalt and high-risebuildings. In this regard, research into the use of satellite thermal infrared images for thermal environment analysis ofurban areas is being carried out. However, such analysis of the characteristics of individual land cover with low-resolutionsatellite images suffers from limitations because land cover patterns in urban areas are complicated. Recently, UAV hasbeen widely used, which can compensate for this limitation as it is able to acquire high-resolution images. In this paper,the accuracy of UAV infrared images is verified and the applicability of UAV in urban thermal environment analysis isexamined by comparing the results with land surface temperatures from Landsat 8 thermal images. The results show ahigh positive correlation of temperature values at 0.95, and no statistically significant difference between the two groups. Comparisons of land surface temperature according to land cover showed that the largest difference observed was 4.63℃in the Used area, and UAV images with small cell units reflected various surface temperatures. Furthermore, it was possibleto analyze the surface temperatures of various green spaces such as wetlands and street tree areas, which can lower surfacetemperatures in urban areas, with street tree shadows reducing surface temperatures by about 4-6℃. UAV can easily andrapidly measure the surface temperature of urban areas and is able to analyze various types of green spaces. Thus, thisis an effective tool for thermal environment analysis in urban areas to aid in the design or management of urban greenspaces, as it can allow for land cover and the effects of the various green spaces. 도시는 콘크리트, 아스팔트 등 인공적인 피복과 고층 건물의 증가로 인해 열섬현상이 발생되고 있다. 이와 관련하여 인공위성 열적외 영상을 활용한 도시의 열환경 분석에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 그러나 복잡한 토지피복을가진 도시의 열환경 특성을 분석하기에는 위성영상의 공간해상도는 한계를 가지고 있다. 무인항공기(UAV)는 높은 해상도의 영상을 취득할 수 있어 이러한 한계점을 보완하기에 적절하며, 최근 폭넓게 활용되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 무인항공기열적외 영상의 정확성 검증과 Landsat 8 열적외 영상과의 해상도 비교를 통한 도시 내 열환경 분석에서 활용가능성에대해 검토하였다. 정확성 검증 결과, 온도 값의 상관성은 0.95로 높은 양의 상관관계를 보였고, 두 집단의 통계적 차이가없었다. 해상도 비교를 위한 두 영상의 지표온도의 차이 분석 결과, 시가화 지역이 4.63℃로 가장 높은 차이를 보였으며,셀 단위가 작은 무인항공기영상이 다양한 지표온도를 반영하였다. 온도 그래프 비교 결과, 도시의 지표온도를 낮출 수있는 습지, 가로녹지 등의 세부적인 공간의 지표온도 분석이 가능하였고, 가로수 그림자의 지표온도저감 효과 분석 결과,약 4~6℃ 가량 낮추는 것으로 나타났다. 무인항공기는 세부적인 공간의 분석이 가능하였고, 단시간에 일정 면적의 지표온도를 취득하기 용이하였다. 따라서 무인항공기는 피복을 고려한 공원의 조성이나 관리, 소규모 녹지의 효과 분석 등도시 내 열환경 분석 전반에 걸쳐 높은 활용성을 가질 것이라 판단된다.