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변창구(Chang-Ku Byun) 21세기정치학회 2004 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.14 No.3
The purpose of this study is to examine the realities of the Chinese policies toward Southeast Asia and the prospects on Sino-ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) relations in the post-cold war era. Because Southeast Asia is very important for China strategically and economically, China has strengthened its relations with ASEAN in the past decade. Especially since Southeast Asian economic crises in 1997, China has continued to actively engage ASEAN. China has provided financial aid and participated many kinds of assistance programmes to support ASEAN countries, and China-ASEAN FTA(Free Trade Area) arrangement to increase economic integration between the two areas is started in November 2002. And at the same time China has been more active political and security talks with ASEAN to reduce tension and enhance trust. As a result of these policies, Sino-ASEAN relations has greatly changed in recent years. In spite of these changes, ASEAN's mistrusts and worries in relation to Chinese economic and security policies toward Southeast Asia is still remain. Therefore the future relations between China and ASEAN will depend on Chinese good will, and so China will continue its efforts to convince ASEAN countries that the development of Sino-ASEAN relations is an opportunity rather than a threat to them.
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동남아시아에 있어서 미 · 중 패권경쟁과 아세안의 선택
변창구(Byun Chang-Ku) 한국정치정보학회 2011 정치정보연구 Vol.14 No.1
동남아시아에 있어서 미 · 중 패권경쟁에는 이념적 · 전략적 · 경제적 요인들이 복합적으로 작용하고 있다. ‘미국 예외주의’(American exceptionalism)와 ‘중화주의’(中華主義)라는 자기중심적 가치체계, 동남아지역의 지정학(geopolitics)적 · 전략적 가치, 그리고 풍부한 인적 및 물적자원의 존재 등이 그 배경요인이 되고 있으며, 중국의 급속한 부상에 따라 세력전이(power transition)의 가능성이 증대되면서 미 · 중 갈등이 더욱 심화되는 양상을 보여주고 있다. 최근 양국의 패권경쟁은 각자의 하드파워(hard power)와 소프트파워(soft power)를 동시에 활용하면서 적극적으로 전개되고 있는데, 전자는 군사력의 증강, 공세주의적 해양전략의 추진 및 아세안에 대한 경쟁적인 경제지원과 FTA의 체결 등의 형태로 나타나고 있으며, 후자는 문화적 차원에서 중국의 공자학원과 미국문화원의 적극적인 활동, 외교적 차원에서는 아세안 각 회원국과의 전략적 협력관계의 구축은 물론, ARF · APT · EAS 등 다양한 다자외교 메커니즘들을 활용한 친아세안 정책경쟁 등의 형태로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 미 · 중 패권경쟁에 대한 아세안의 인식은 기본적으로 경쟁으로부터 야기되는 기회를 최대한 활용하고 위험은 최소화시킨다는 것이다. 따라서 양 강대국 가운데 어느 하나에 편승하기 어려운 상황에서 선택한 아세안의 전략은 미국과 중국에 대한 ‘헤징’(hedging)과 ‘균형’(balance)이었다. 아세안은 중국의 부상에 따른 위험에 대처하기 위하여 대립적인 이해관계를 가지고 있는 미국과 경제적 · 안보적 유대관계를 유지 · 강화하는 동시에, 미국과의 군사적 협력이 야기할 수 있는 주권 손상과 부당한 압력에 대처하기 위하여 부상하는 중국의 힘을 활용함으로써 어느 일방으로부터의 위험을 상쇄하는 헤징전략을 추구하고 있다. 또한 아세안은 중국이냐 미국이냐의 제로-섬(zero-sum) 게임적 선택을 피하고자 하며, 부상하는 중국으로부터 이익을 추구하는 동시에 미국과도 우호관계를 계속 유지함으로써 이익을 극대화시키는 균형전략을 견지하고 있다. The purpose of this research is to analyze the US-China hegemonic competition in Southeast Asia and to seek for ASEAN’s responsive strategies. The causes of the US-China hegemonic competition in Southeast Asia are ideological, strategic, and economic variables. In ideological dimension “American exceptionalism” is confronted with “Sinocentrism”. In addition the strategic and economic values of Southeast Asian region is very great. In the US-China hegemonic competition in Southeast Asia, the two great powers have used “hard powers” such as military and economic power, and “soft powers” like cultural and diplomatic power. China has drived military modernization and offensive ocean policy in South China Sea. And at the same time China has founded a lot of “Confucius institute” for cultural cooperation, and developed a more active multilateral diplomacy such as ARF(ASEAN Regional Forum), APT(ASEAN Plus Three) and EAS(East Asia Summit). Coping with Chinese offensive policy, the US has been reinforcing security and economic cooperation with ASEAN countries. On the one hand the US is pursuing bilateral military and economic cooperation, on the other strengthening multilateral cooperation such as “Lower Mekong Initiative”. And at the same time in order to check “China’s Rise” the US strengthening strategic ties with ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore. Because of the hegemonic competition between the US and China, ASEAN’s strategic value has been increased. Taking advantage of competition between the two powers, ASEAN has secured “hedging” or “balanced” strategy. In conclusion, in order to develop peace and stability in Southeast Asia, ASEAN as a “pivotal state” in the strategic triangular relation needs a more active mediator role.
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변창구(Byun, Chang-Ku) 동아시아국제정치학회 2011 국제정치연구 Vol.14 No.2
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dilemma of non-interference principle in regional cooperation such as human rights issues among ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members. The non-interference in internal affairs is a core principle of so-called “ASEAN way”, which has played a very important role in Southeast Asian integration process. However the principle has been also misused by authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia. The Myanmar"s military junta is notorious for blatant breach of democratic principles and basic human rights. Myanmar strongly criticize ASEAN"s call for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of NLD(National League for Democracy). In order to increase human rights in member states like Myanmar or Cambodia ASEAN"s involvement is inevitable. But these behaviour is contrary to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs. This is a ASEAN"s dilemma. To overcome this dilemma, Thailand proposed “constructive engagement” or “flexible engagement” and Philippine supported these ideas. But most of the ASEAN members opposed this proposal because of the possibilities of violating national sovereignty. As a compromise, in 1988 ASEAN adapted the less intrusive principle called “enhanced interaction”. This means that ASEAN members recognize not only modifying but the importance of preserving the principle of non-interference. Since this compromise, ASEAN members have begun to interpret this principle in a more flexible way, and ASEAN"s flexible engagement in human right issues has been increased. Futhermore in 2009 ASEAN Summit decided to establishing “AICHR(ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights)” and in recent years civil society such as APA(ASEAN Peoples" Assembly) has been greatly developed. And so the possibilities to overcome the dilemma of non-interference principle is increased.
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