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확률·통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안
박소순 한국방재학회 2009 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.9 No.6
Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for its infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation technique is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation. 최근 인적재난 발생의 불확실성에 대한 유연한 대처를 위해 확률·통계적 재난위험성 평가 및 위험관리 기술에 대한 필요성이 고조되고 있어 관련기술을 인적재난에 적용하기 위한 연구를 수행하였다. 먼저 재난위험성 평가 기법의 실효성, 경제성 및 지속가능한 시스템 구현을 위한 선제조건을 검토하였다. 이로부터 재난의 피해규모-발생확률 분포함수의 이론적 검토를 통해 확률·통계적인 재난위험 지표를 도출하고 재난안전(위험)도 평가에 활용함으로서 보다 간편한 정량적 재난위험도 평가기법을 개발하였기에 이를 소개한다. 또한 이를 활용하여 우리나라와 일본의 화재에 대한 확률·통계적 시스템의 안전유지 성능을 비교·분석하고 그 결과를 안전지수로 제시하였다. 향후 기존의 재난위험 평가기술과 융화·발전시켜 국내실정에 맞는 미래 재난 추정 및 예측 모델의 최적화 방안을 마련함으로써 지속적인 위험도 분석결과에 기반을 둔 합리적인 통합재난관리 방안 마련이 가능 할 것으로 기대된다.
316L 스테인리스 용접부의 피로균열진전 거동 및 열화특성
박소순,남기우,안석환,도재윤,박인덕 대한기계학회 2002 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2002 No.3
Recently, by the passing of a year, there have been many accidents in an movable atomic power plant. Therefore a measure to counter to prevent emergency accidents is in need. In this study, we investigated the fatigue crack propagation of 316L stainless steel weldments usually used for vessels of an atomic power plant. As the results of this investigation, it can be use as a basic investigation data to predict the fatigue crack life. And we tried to investigate deterioration property of 316L stainless steel weldments by the Ultrasonic Parameter, such as Ultrasonic Velocity, attenuation factor and Time-Frequency analysis.
316L 스테인리스강 용접부의 피로균열진전 거동 및 초음파 시험에 의한 열화특성 평가
박소순(So-Soon Park),남기우(Ki-Woo Nam),안석환(Seok-Hwan Ahn),박인덕(In-Duck Park) 대한기계학회 2002 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2002 No.8
316L stainless steel had been used as the structural material for energy environmental facilities, because austenite stainless steels like 316L have superior mechanical properties of which toughness, ductility, corrosion resistant and etc. However, those welded structures are receiving severe damage due to increasing of the aged degradation. Most studies until now have been carried out against fatigue behaviors of weldments, and were not well studied on nondestructive evaluation methods. In this study, the fatigue crack propagation behavior of 316L stainless steel weldment usually used for vessels of the nuclear power plant was investigated. Also, the degradation characteristics of 316L stainless steel weldments were evaluated by the ultrasonic parameter such as ultrasonic velocity, attenuation factor and time-frequency analysis. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for the prediction of the fatigue crack life of weldments structures without disjointing or stopping service of structures in service.
STS316L 용접부의 피로거동 및 초음파시럼에 의한 열화특성 평가
남기우,박소순,안석환,도재윤,박인덕 한국비파괴검사학회 2003 한국비파괴검사학회지 Vol.23 No.2
STS316L은 인성, 연성, 부식저항성 등 우수한 기계적 성질 때문에 에너지환경설비 등 구조물에 널리 이용되고 있다. 그러나, 용접구조물은 가혹한 환경하에서 경년열화가 심각하다. 지금까지의 연구들은 주로 용접부의 피로균열진전거동에 관하여 수행되었고, 피로균열진전속도식의 재료상수와 비파괴적 평가의 상관성에 관한 연구는 거의 없었다. 본 연구는 STS316L 용접부의 피로균열진전 거동을 조사하고, 초음파 파라미터로 열화특성을 평가하고 시간-주파수 분석으로 해석을 하였다. 본 연구 결과는 용접구조물의 사용기간 중 피로수명 등을 예측하기 위한 기초 데이터로서 사용될 수 있다. STS316L had been used as the structural material for energy environmental facilities, because austenite stainless steels like 316L have superior mechanical properties of which toughness, ductility, corrosion resistant and etc. However, those welded structures are receiving severe damage due to increasing of the aged degradation. Most studies until now have been carried out against fatigue bahaviors of weldments, and were not well studied on nondestructive evaluation methods. In this study, the fatigue crack propagation behavior of STS316L weldment usually used for vessels of the nuclear power plant was investigated. Also, the degradation characterstics of 316L stainless steel weldments were evaluated by the ultrasonic parameter such as ultrasonic velocity, attenuation factor and time-frequency analysis. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for the prediction of the fatigue crack life of weldments structures without disjointing or stopping service of structures in service.