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김치호,김태윤,박인호,안재준,Kim, Chiho,Kim, Tae Yoon,Park, Inho,Ahn, Jae Joon 한국데이터정보과학회 2015 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.26 No.6
In order to effectively understand the perception of businesses and consumers, the Bank of Korea has released Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), a composite indicator of business survey index (BSI) and consumer survey index (CSI), since 2102. The usefulness of ESI has been widely recognized. However, there exists a margin for improvement in terms of its predictive power. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of ESI and improved the ESI by complementing its defaults. Our results of empirical analysis proved that dynamic optimal weight navigation process using the sliding window method is very useful in determining the optimal weights of configurations item of ESI based on economic situation. 경기상황에 대한 기업과 소비자들의 인식을 효과적으로 파악하기 위해 기업경기실사지수 (BSI)와 소비자동향지수 (CSI)를 편제하고 있는 한국은행은 2012년부터 이 두 지수를 합성한 경제심리지수 (ESI)를 추가로 개발하여 발표하고 있다. ESI는 그 유용성을 인정받고 있으나 지수의 예측력 측면에서 개선의 여지가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 ESI에 대해 유용성 평가 작업을 실시하고 그 결과를 토대로 현행 ESI의 편제방식의 개선 또는 보완 방법을 모색하였다. 실증분석 결과 ESI 구성요소의 최적 가중치 탐색과정에서 슬라이딩 윈도우 방법을 이용한 동적 최적 가중치 탐색은 기존 ESI의 구성방식을 보완하거나 또는 경제상황을 고려하여 ESI 구성항목들의 가중치를 부여하고자 할 때 매우 유용한 방법이라고 판단할 수 있었다.
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경제현상과 경제분석, 그리고 통계학적 응용성 - 계량경제학의 발전과 과제를 중심으로 -
김치호,Kim, Chiho 한국통계학회 2015 응용통계연구 Vol.28 No.6
이 리뷰논문은 경제분석체계의 발전과정을 계량경제학을 중심으로 살펴보고 불확실성이 더해지는 최근 경제현상의 통계학적 응용성을 모색한 것이다. 지난 반세기 동안 경제학의 분석체계는 발전을 거듭하며 현실 경제문제를 실효적으로 분석하고 예측해왔다. 그 중심에 이론통계학의 추론을 기반으로 하는 계량경제학의 절대적인 기여가 있었다. 최근 들어서는 IT발전, 인터넷과 SNS의 확산 등으로 계량경제학과 통계학의 새로운 연구 환경이 조성되고 있다. 앞으로 경제현상의 복잡다기화와 변동성 증대에 비례하여 분석체계도 정치화되며 발전할 것으로 보이지만, 급변하는 경제환경 변화를 적실하게 분석해내지 못하는 한계를 지적하는 시각도 있다. 한걸음 더 나아가 주류 경제학의 패러다임을 넘어 복잡계, 경제물리학과 같은 접근방법을 적극적으로 적용해야한다는 주장도 나오고 있는데, 이 또한 통계학에게는 도전이 되고 있다. This paper reviews the developments of econometric analysis and seeks a statistical applicability to current economic phenomena. During the last half century, economic analysis has progressed continuously, analyzing and predicting a broad variety of economic phenomena. In the center of this progress lies the remarkable contribution of econometrics and mathematical statistics. New economic research environment has been recently created via developments of IT and the spread of internet and SNSs. Economic phenomena has become increasingly complicated along with more volatile and sophisticated economic analysis. In that context, it can be suggested that there is a need to move beyond current economic paradigms and adapt new approaches such as complex theory and econophysics, all of which posits as a challenge for econometrics and statistics.
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김치호 ( Chiho Kim ),문병은 ( Byeongeun Moon ),이상윤 ( Sangyoon Lee ),김종구 ( Jonggu Kim ),윤용철 ( Yongcheol Yoon ),김현태 ( Hyeontae Kim ) 한국농공학회 2011 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2011 No.-
국가단위의 온실가스 배출량 산정이 최근 국제적으로 중요한 과제이며, 국가 단위 뿐만 아니라, 소규모의 지자체 또는 마을 단위의 탄소배출량 산정도 거시적 탄소순환을 해석하는데 중요한 요소이다. 특히, 최근 국가적으로 추진되고 있는 녹색마을 또는 에너지 자립마을의 구축을 위해서 본 연구에서는 단위마을내 탄소순환 해석을 위한 구성(요소)별 마을의 탄소 유ㆍ출입량을 산정하기 위한 기준을 만들고, 설정된 기준에 의하여 탄소순환해석을 위한 구성을 설정하고, 각 구성에서 단위 면적당 탄소유입량(고정량), 배출량을 분석하였다. 녹색마을에 있어서 탄소순환 해석을 위한 구성(요소)은 논, 밭, 축사 및 가축, 시설 및 원예, 임야, 초지, 농가, 농기계, 호수 및 강 등으로 분류하였다. 본 연구에서 대상으로 한 녹색마을은 전라북도 김제시 공덕면 황산리 중촌마을로서, 이번 연구에서는 공덕면 단위마을로 하여 구성(요소)별 탄소의 유출입을 산정하였다. 구성(요소)별 탄소의 유출입량은 기존의 문헌을 참고하였으며, 녹색 단위마을의 기초 자료는 김제시청과 공덕면사무소 방문 조사하였으며, 기타 통계자료는 김제시청 홈페이지를 활용하였다. 그 결과, 임야는 침엽수림, 활엽수림, 혼효림으로 구분하여 조사하였으며, 공덕면의 임야 면적은 침엽수림 521.40ha, 활엽수림 0ha, 혼효림 10.64ha 이고, 이에 따른 탄소 저장량은 침엽수림 19178.62 ton/year, 혼효림 772.52 ton/year, CO₂흡수량은 침엽수림 3806.23 ton/year, 혼효림 55.33 ton/year, 탄소 흡수량은 침엽수림 1042.80 ton/year, 혼효림 14.89 ton/year 조사되었다. 또한 초지는 42.51ha, 이에 따른 탄소 흡수량은 7.2267 ton C/year 으로 나타났으며, 논의 경지면적은 1,844 ha 이고, 총 탄소 배출량은 15895.28 ton C/ha/year, 밭작물의 재배 면적은 과채류 16.5 ha, 엽채류 6.2 ha, 근채류 4.3 ha, 조미채소 39.4 ha, 과일류 15 ha, 총 81.4 ha 이고, 이에 따른 총 탄소 발생량은 10910.53 ton C/ha/year 로 조사되었다. 축사는 젖소와 돼지로 구분하여 조사하였고, 공덕면의 젖소 사육 두는 0마리로 젖소 자체의 탄소 발생량은 제외하고, 젖소 농가에 의한 탄소 잔류량을 분석하였다. 이에 따른 탄소 유입량은 204.03 ton C/year, 탄소 배출량은 187.04 ton C/year, 탄소 잔류량은 16.99 ton C/year 이다. 공덕면의 돼지 사육 두는 22,426마리이고 돼지와 돼지 농가에 따른 탄소유입량은 37098.81 ton C/year, 탄소 배출량은 21005.77 ton C/year, 탄소 잔류량은 16093.04 ton C/year로 조사되었다. 농가의 수는 659호이고, 농가 인구는 1,779명이다. 이에 따른 탄소 배출량은 1022.03 ton C, 이산화탄소 배출량은 3747.46 ton CO₂이다. 이와 같이 단위마을 내 탄소순환 해석을 위해 구성(요소)별 탄소 유ㆍ출입을 통하여 탄소의 순환해석이 가능하며, 또한 단위마을 규모를 확대, 축소시키면서 탄소량의 정량화를 통해서 좀 더 정확한 수치의 정량화가 가능할 것으로 판단된다.
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김치호(Chiho Kim),김승원(Seungwon Kim) 한국경제연구원 2002 규제연구 Vol.11 No.2
There are various concepts and definitions with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate. Along with the reality that a variety of methodologies and econometric techniques are applied in empirical research, a comprehensive approach that reviews and analyzes the pros and cons of various models would seem to render more reliable results. From such point of view, this research first critically reviewed the theory of equilibrium exchange rate and evaluated previous studies, then estimated Korea's equilibrium exchange rate by applying three approaches, i) purchasing power parity method, ii) cointegration equation which explores the long-run equilibrium exchange rate relationship, and iii) macroeconomic model consisting of simultaneous equation for the period between the early 1980s and recent times. Based on the estimation results, the degree and duration of detachment between the actual and equilibrium exchange rates (exchange rate misalignment), and the effect of exchange rate on the national economy were comprehensively evaluated. Following are the main findings of this study. First, comparison of the estimated levels of equilibrium exchange rates between the three approaches, other than a large detachment between the periods before and after the currency crisis in 1997 showed that the estimated results of the three methods do not show any significant discrepancy for most of the sample periods. Therefore, it can be concluded that the level of equilibrium exchange rates estimated in this research is highly credible. Second, by determining whether the actual exchange rates immediately prior to the crisis were overvalued, it was found that the actual exchange rates began to fall below the equilibrium exchange rates of all three methods beginning in 1995 and overvaluation of \/US$ exchange rates continued until the second or third quarter of 1997. In particular, the overvaluation of \/US$ exchange rates was shown to be notably severe in 1996. Third, while the sudden increase of nominal exchange rates immediately after the crisis led to the actual exchange rates significantly exceeding the equilibrium exchange rates, the gap began to be mitigated in the second quarter of 1998, and the misalignment ratio of 2000 was significantly lower than the average of the past ten years. Fourth, comparison of the three methods used to estimate equilibrium exchange rates showed that the PPP model is useful in evaluating the long-run real purchasing power of Korean Won, while the error correction model assuming long-term equilibrium among the actual exchange rates and other related variables is useful in effectively explaining the short -tenn movements of exchange rates. Also the macroeconomic model consisting of the simultaneous equations is shown to be effective in explaining the overvaluation of exchange rates immediately prior to the crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the results of the three methods when operating an exchange rate policy. Finally, in respect of operating the exchange rate policy, since the actual exchange rate is largely affected by supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and expectations of market participants, it is quite common that in the short-run the actual exchange rate fluctuates around the equilibrium exchange rate determined by basic economic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to overlook a reasonable level of gap between the actual and equilibrium exchange rates. However, as learned from the currency crisis, if the gap is severe and prolonged for a long period, the effect such detachment has on the national economy can be serious and thus appropriate countermeasure policies should be utilized to mitigate adverse effect exchange rate detachment may have on the real economic activities.
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김치호(Chiho Kim),김승원(Seungwon Kim) 한국경제연구원 2002 규제연구 Vol.11 No.1
There are various concepts and definitions with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate. Along with the reality that a variety of methodologies and econometric techniques are applied in empirical research, a comprehensive approach that reviews and analyzes the pros and cons of various models would seem to render more reliable results. From such point of view, this research first critically reviewed the theory of equilibrium exchange rate and evaluated previous studies, then estimated Korea's equilibrium exchange rate by applying three approaches, i) purchasing power parity method, ii) cointegration equation which explores the long-run equilibrium exchange rate relationship, and iii) macroeconomic model consisting of simultaneous equation for the period between the early 1980s and recent times. Based on the estimation results, the degree and duration of detachment between the actual and equilibrium exchange rates (exchange rate misalignment), and the effect of exchange rate on the national economy were comprehensively evaluated. Following are the main findings of this study. First, comparison of the estimated levels of equilibrium exchange rates between the three approaches, other than a large detachment between the periods before and after the currency crisis in 1997 showed that the estimated results of the three methods do not show any significant discrepancy for most of the sample periods. Therefore, it can be concluded that the level of equilibrium exchange rates estimated in this research is highly credible. Second, by determining whether the actual exchange rates immediately prior to the crisis were overvalued, it was found that the actual exchange rates began to fall below the equilibrium exchange rates of all three methods beginning in 1995 and overvaluation of \/US$ exchange rates continued until the second or third quarter of 1997. In particular, the overvaluation of \/US$ exchange rates was shown to be notably severe in 1996. Third, while the sudden increase of nominal exchange rates immediately after the crisis led to the actual exchange rates significantly exceeding the equilibrium exchange rates, the gap began to be mitigated in the second quarter of 1998, and the misalignment ratio of 2000 was significantly lower than the average of the past ten years. Fourth, comparison of the three methods used to estimate equilibrium exchange rates showed that the PPP model is useful in evaluating the long-run real purchasing power of Korean Won, while the error correction model assuming long-term equilibrium among the actual exchange rates and other related variables is useful in effectively explaining the short -tenn movements of exchange rates. Also the macroeconomic model consisting of the simultaneous equations is shown to be effective in explaining the overvaluation of exchange rates immediately prior to the crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the results of the three methods when operating an exchange rate policy. Finally, in respect of operating the exchange rate policy, since the actual exchange rate is largely affected by supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and expectations of market participants, it is quite common that in the short-run the actual exchange rate fluctuates around the equilibrium exchange rate determined by basic economic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to overlook a reasonable level of gap between the actual and equilibrium exchange rates. However, as learned from the currency crisis, if the gap is severe and prolonged for a long period, the effect such detachment has on the national economy can be serious and thus appropriate countermeasure policies should be utilized to mitigate adverse effect exchange rate detachment may have on the real economic activities.
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Sol-Gel법을 이용한 Cu<sub>x</sub>Co<sub>3-x</sub>O<sub>4</sub> 산소 발생 촉매의 합성 및 전기화학 특성 분석
박유세,정창욱,김치호,구태우,석창규,권일영,김양도,Park, Yoo Sei,Jung, Changwook,Kim, Chiho,Koo, Taewoo,Seok, Changgyu,Kwon, Ilyeong,Kim, Yangdo 한국재료학회 2019 한국재료학회지 Vol.29 No.2
Transition metal oxide is widely used as a water electrolysis catalyst to substitute for a noble metal catalyst such as $IrO_2$ and $RuO_2$. In this study, the sol-gel method is used to synthesize the $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER),. The CuxCo3-xO4 is synthesized at various calcination temperatures from $250^{\circ}C$ to $400^{\circ}C$ for 4 h. The $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ synthesized at $300^{\circ}C$ has a perfect spinel structure without residues of the precursor and secondary phases, such as CuO. The particle size of $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ increases with an increase in calcination temperature. Amongst all the samples studied, $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$, which is synthesized at 300?, has the highest activity for the OER. Its onset potential for the OER is 370 mV and the overpotential at $10mA/cm^2$ is 438 mV. The tafel slope of $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ synthesized at $300^{\circ}C$ has a low value of 58 mV/dec. These results are mainly explained by the increase in the available active surface area of the $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ catalyst.
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