Fiscal Policies of Korea through the Global Financial Crisis

Seok-Kyun Hur,Seong-Tae Kim 한국경제연구학회 2012 Korea and the World Economy Vol.13 No.3

This paper examines the expansionary fiscal policies taken in Korea during the recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and evaluates their effectiveness in the recovery process. In light of the historical trend of fiscal consolidation, the fiscal stimulus package during the GFC is unprecedented both in terms of timing and magnitude. The existing literature has split decisions on the efficacy of fiscal policies in Korea. In contrast, this paper, adopting three different empirical strategies, reports evidences, though limited, that the massive fiscal expansion during the GFC sustained the Korean economy after the currency depreciation has lost its influence on trade balance.

Government Interventions in the Competitive Loan Market in Presence of Costs in Collateral Provision

( Seok Kyun Hur ),( Jae Hoon Kim ) 한국국제경제학회 2014 한국국제경제학회 동계학술대회 Vol.2014 No.1

This paper is purposed to examine whether and how government interventions in the loan market can resolve a market failure caused by information asymmetry. In reality, the government takes various corrective measures in order to alleviate distortions in loan allocation. Dividing them into three canonical types (subsidization of funding cost (indirect lending), provision of public payment guarantee and that of direct lending), our paper compares those ways of government intervention in enhancing efficiency based on a partial equilibrium model.

Determination of Interest Rates, Collateral and Capital Buffer

Seok-Kyun Hur 한국재무학회 2013 財務硏究 Vol.26 No.1

정부부채와 금융시장의 관계

허석균 ( Seok Kyun Hur ) 한국경제학회 2012 經濟學硏究 Vol.60 No.4

This paper aims to explore the consequences of government deficit on the financial market. In an incomplete market, the increased government bond, which is generally accepted as a risk-free asset, tends to enhance the hedging capacity of consumers and may induce them to take a greater position of the private risky asset. The paper, based on a stochastic general equilibrium model with two overlapping generations, delivers theoretical discussions on this issue. It identifies a threshold, below(above) which increase in the government debt is likely to enlarge(shrink) the market for private capital.

공적연금이 거시경제에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 / 지정토론 / 일반토론

허석균 ( Seok Kyun Hur ),남광희,홍기석,신관호,김명직,안종길 한국금융연구원 2007 한국경제의 분석 Vol.13 No.3

This paper aims at evaluating the impacts of a public pension program on a macro economy with emphasis on the financial markets. Our paper distinguishes itself from the existing literature in that it analyzes macroeconomic consequences of a funded pension system in presence of two assets-risky and risk-free ones. For the purpose, the paper solves numerically a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the population of 12-overlapping generations and reveals that increased risk exposure of the public pension fund may crowd out the aggregate risky asset holding, which in turn is defined to be physical capital accumulation. Of course, we cannot exclude the possibility that several simplifying assumptions, on which our model is built, may lead to this result and we agree that the future research should be directed towards overcoming those restrictions. Nevertheless, our result holds its own value in reminding the consequences of the portfolio strategies of the public pension fund on the aggregate economy.

적립식 공적연금과 자산시장 간의 관계

허석균(Seok Kyun Hur) 한국경제발전학회 2016 경제발전연구 Vol.22 No.4

This study is a theoretical attempt to assess the long-run the effects of funded public pension on the asset market and the aggregate economy with varying institutional arrangements and portfolio strategies. For the purpose, I build a two-generation stochastic overlapping generation model and examine how the size, the portfolio strategy and the replacement ratio influence the asset market and the aggregate economy under a defined benefit funded scheme. National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea currently maintains the partial funded structure and will be exhausted its fund in a few decades. In the meantime, NPS has increased its asset allocations on the risky asset and foreign assets for long-term sustainability The toy model of this paper is designed to accommodate those features. Thus, it could be used for predicting consequences of NPS on the Korean economy and suggesting an optimal portfolio policy.

Public Inquiry and Fiscal Discipline - An Assessment on Performance of the Preliminary Feasibility Study in Korea -

허석균(Seok Kyun Hur),박창균(Chang Gyun Park) 한국경제발전학회 2016 經濟發展硏究 Vol.22 No.4

예비타당성조사제도는 1999년 처음 도입된 이후 지속적으로 진화하여 이제는 대규모 재정지출이 수반되는 사회간접자본 건설에 대한 의사결정 과정에서 반드시 거쳐야 하는 사회적 제도로서 굳건하게 자리 잡았다. 본 연구에서는 공적조사 제도로서 예비타당성조사가 예산 관련 의사결정의 독립성과 객관성 확보에 어떤 영향을 주었는지를 점검하기 위하여 1999년부터 2013년까지 15년의 기간 동안 성과에 대한 정성적·정량적 평가를 시도하였다. 연구 대상 15년의 기간 동안 예비타당성조사 대상이 되었던 재정지출사업의 35%가 타당성이 없는 것으로 판정되어 예산배정이 거부되었는데 이는 약 102조원의 예산이 절감되었음을 의미한다. 더하여 예비타당성조사는 정치적 압력과 같은 외부적 위험 요인의 영향으로부터 예산관련 의사결정을 보호함으로써 재정규율의 확립에 기여하였던 것으로 평가된다. 특히 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 직후 경기 침체에 대응하기 위하여 적극적 재정팽창을 옹호하던 주장에 대응하여 타당성이 없는 사회간접자본에 대한 지출을 막음으로써 재정건전성 유지에 크게 기여하였던 것으로 나타났다. 더욱이 경제적 타당성이 다소 미흡함에도 불구하고 지역균형발전 등 제반 사회적 요인을 종합적으로 고려하여 사업의 전체적 타당성이 있다고 최종 결론을 내린 경우를 대상으로 한 분석에서 그러한 결정이 외부적 또는 정치적 요인에 영향을 받았다는 증거를 발견할 수 없었던 바, 이는 예비타당성제도가 상당히 독립적으로 운영되어 왔음을 시사한다. Since its introduction in 1999, the preliminary feasibility study (PFS) has been evolved to firmly establish itself as a social institution in Korea. It now serves the society as a focal point for public inquiry into budgetary expenditure programs on social overhead capital. We examine the performance of the PFS for the last 15 years focusing on its role as the bulwark of objective and independent budgetary decision makings. Thirty-five percent of large scale government expenditure projects evaluated by PFS were announced to be fiscally unjustifiable and abandoned. That is, more than 102 trillion KRW were saved due to rigorous screening by the PFS between 1999 and 2012, amounting to thirty-eight percent of total project costs of all projects examined by PFS during the same period. In addition, the PFS has contributed to enhancing fiscal discipline by insulating budgetary decision making process from external risk factors such as political pressure. The global financial crisis in 2008 provided a good opportunity for advocates of fiscal expansionism to extend their territory. Accordingly, both the number and total size of government expenditure projects proposed by the government ministries have been sharply increased. However, the PFS played an important role in keeping fiscal soundness by preventing inefficient or unnecessary project from being executed even in the face of unfavorable atmosphere prevailed during the turbulent times after the global financial crisis(JEL classification: H43, H54, H61).

금융기관의 중소기업대출 행태

허석균(Seok-Kyun Hur) 한국경제발전학회 2015 經濟發展硏究 Vol.21 No.2

본 연구는 중소기업관련대출현황 파악을 목적으로 대출금리, 연체율 및 대출액 총량자료와 대출행태지수 등을 이용하여 단순상관관계 및 VAR 모형을 이용한 분석을 실시한 결과를 정리한 것이다. 이에 따르면 여러 중소기업금 융지원프로그램들이 본격적인 경기대응수단으로 사용되었다고 보기는 어렵지만 적어도 경기침체기에는 적극적인 경기대응수단으로 사용된 것으로 보인다. 또한 중소기업관련 정책자금집행은 예상대로 중소기업대출액 전체규모를 늘리는 것으로 나타났다. 추정결과에 따르면 정책자금의 증가가 동일한 비율로 중소기업대출액을 증가시키지 않을 가능성이 있기는 하지만 전체중소기업대 출에서 정책자금비중이 상대적으로 크지 않다는 점을 감안하면, 구축효과가 있다고 그리 크지 않은 것으로 보인다. 그리고 정책금리의 조정이나 총액한 도대출의 상향조정이 일시적으로 대출금리를 인하시키는 효과를 가지나 중소 기업에 대한 대출을 확대시키는 데까지 이르지는 못하는 것으로 나타났다 (JEL: G21, G28). This study is purposed to comprehend the patterns of bank lending to SMEs in Korea by utilizing several aggregate data including lending rates, delinquency rates, loan outstanding and lending behavior survey indices. Simple correlations and OLS and VAR estimations using those data sets report the following patterns of bank lending to SMEs. First, government loan programs seem to be used for a counter-cyclical measure and the pattern is significant in a recession. Second, the government loan programs tend to increase the total loan amount to SMEs, which indicate that crowding-out of the government loan programs is not substantial if any. Third, changes in the polcy rate and the bank intermediated lending support facility seem to lower the lending rates but could not lead to expanding the SME loans.

우리나라 재정정책의 유효성에 관한 연구

허석균,Hur, Seok-Kyun 한국개발연구원 2007 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.29 No.2

본 연구는 재정수입 및 지출 그리고 국민소득의 세 변수를 구조적 벡터자기회귀(Structural VAR) 모형에 대입하여 재정의 경기조절기능을 분석하고자 하는 시도에서 비롯하였다. 이를 위해 우선 교란항에 다양한 형태의 선험적 제약을 부여하여 재정승수를 추정한 후 그 결과를 제약식별로 비교 검토한다. 다음으로는 3-변수모형을 확장하여 외부경제로부터의 충격을 반영하는 변수를 추가한 4-변수 SVAR을 분석한다. 이는 다른 나라와 비교하여 우리나라 경제의 해외부문 의존도가 큰 것을 감안한 까닭이다. 1979년부터 2000년까지의 한국은행의 "조사통계월보" 자료를 이용하여 3-변수 SVAR을 실증분석한 결과에 따르면, 추정된 재정승수의 규모와 지속기간이 매우 작거나 짧을 뿐 아니라 추정값의 통계적 유의성도 그리 높지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 해외부문을 포함한 4-변수 SVAR 모형을 계산한 결과도, 추정된 재정승수의 통계적 유의성이 일부의 경우에서 다소 높아짐에도 불구하고, 3-변수 SVAR 모형의 결과와 대체적으로 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 해외부문으로부터의 외생적 충격의 고려 여부와는 상관없이 재정정책의 유효성이 우리나라에서는 통계적으로 유의한 수준에서 확인되지 않는 것으로 보인다. 하지만 이 결과를 받아들임에 있어 사용된 "조사통계월보" 자료 및 분석모형의 한계에 대해서도 고려하여야 할 것이다. This paper mainly estimates a trajectory of GDP induced by variations in fiscal expenditure and taxation policy using three variable structural VAR models. By assigning different combinations of identifying restrictions on the disturbances and measuring the corresponding fiscal multipliers, we compare how robust the estimated values of fiscal multipliers are with respect to the restrictions. Then, considering the dependency of Korean economy on the foreign sector, we extend the three variable SVARs to four variable ones by adding a variable reflecting external shocks. Empirical analyses into the Korean quarterly data (from 1979 to 2000) with the three variable SVARs reveal that the size and the significance of the estimated fiscal multipliers in Korea are very small and low or they decay very fast. Results from the four variable SVARs confirm these results while the significance of the effectiveness of fiscal policy is enhanced in some cases.

Bone mineral density among Korean females aged 20-50 years: influence of age at menarche (The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2008-2011)

( Ha Kyun Chang ),( Sung-jong Lee ),( Yong Seok Lee ),( Hae-nam Lee ),( Keun Ho Lee ),( Dong Choon Park ),( Chan Joo Kim ),( Tae Chul Park ),( Jong Sup Park ),( Soo Young Hur ) 대한산부인과학회 2016 대한산부인과학회 학술대회 Vol.102 No.-

목적: To investigate any correlation between bone mineral density (BMD) and age at menarche in Korean females using data from the fourth and fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV-V; 2008-2011). 방법: In total, 37,753 individuals participated in health examination surveys between 2008 and 2011. After excluding males (n = 23,301), those without BMD data (n = 2,654), those aged ≥ 50 or <20 (n = 6162), and those who underwent early menopause (at age < 50; n = 384), 5,032 females were eligible. Age, body mass index (BMI), height, weight, and age at menarche were assessed. 결과: Simple regression analyses indicated that age (per year), exercise (per 1 day/week), BMI (per 1 kg/m2), familial osteoporosis history (yes), parity (n = 1), and menarche age (per 1 year) were associated with BMD of the entire femur, femur neck, and lumbar spine. There was a negative correlation between age at menarche and BMD of the entire femur and the lumbar. In multiple regression analyses, after adjusting for age, parity, BMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, and familial osteoporosis history, menarche age (per 1 year) was associated with a low BMD of the entire femur and lumbar spine (p=0.028 and <0.001, respectively). 결론: Age at menarche was associated with BMD in premenopausal Korean females, aged 20-50 years. As females who experience late menarche may be prone to develop less dense bones, remedies to preserve BMD and prevent bone loss should be initiated as early as possible.