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Building a Peace Regime in Korea: An American View
Leon V. Sigal 통일연구원 2006 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.15 No.1
Mutual deterrence makes the risk of deliberate aggression on the Korean Peninsula quite low, but the very steps that both sides have taken to deter pre-meditated war have increased the risk of inadvertent war. For a peace treaty to be militarily meaningful, the force postures and war plans on both sides that pose an excessive risk of pre-emptive war have to be altered. That will require mutual and reciprocal, though not necessarily identical steps by both sides to defuse the volatile standoff at the DMZ. That is a demanding task, and one that is unlikely to succeed without fostering a conducive political environment first. One way to foster that environment is a series of peace agreements, as distinct from a peace treaty, that establishes a new three.way peace mechanism and develops some politically useful, though militarily less meaningful, confidencebuilding measures. Such peace agreements, in which the United States is a signatory, are a way to give the DPRK a form of diplomatic recognition, thereby facilitating a resolution of the current nuclear crisis. The September 19, 2006 joint statement gives impetus to this effort when it says “the directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum.” Mutual deterrence makes the risk of deliberate aggression on the Korean Peninsula quite low, but the very steps that both sides have taken to deter pre-meditated war have increased the risk of inadvertent war. For a peace treaty to be militarily meaningful, the force postures and war plans on both sides that pose an excessive risk of pre-emptive war have to be altered. That will require mutual and reciprocal, though not necessarily identical steps by both sides to defuse the volatile standoff at the DMZ. That is a demanding task, and one that is unlikely to succeed without fostering a conducive political environment first. One way to foster that environment is a series of peace agreements, as distinct from a peace treaty, that establishes a new three.way peace mechanism and develops some politically useful, though militarily less meaningful, confidencebuilding measures. Such peace agreements, in which the United States is a signatory, are a way to give the DPRK a form of diplomatic recognition, thereby facilitating a resolution of the current nuclear crisis. The September 19, 2006 joint statement gives impetus to this effort when it says “the directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum.”
U.S.-China Competition Need Not Entrap South Korea in A New Cold War
Leon V. Sigal 통일연구원 2021 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.30 No.1
Political and economic rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, but a new Cold War is not inevitable. Competitive cooperation in the political, economic, and even military realm can mitigate rivalry somewhat. The risk of war is still low, even in the potential flashpoint of the Taiwan Strait, held in check by deterrence, conventional as well as nuclear. Yet deterrence alone will not suffice. It needs to be supplemented by reassurance in the form of competitive cooperation especially in the nuclear realm. Caught between its U.S. ally and its Chinese neighbor, South Korea has an interest in trying to encourage competitive cooperation, where possible.