실시간 홍수예측을 위한 확산형 모형에 관한 연구

배덕효 國立 昌原大學校 産業技術硏究所 1996 産技硏論文集 Vol.10 No.-

The subjective research attempts to develop a state-space form of diffusion-wave channel routing model that can be applicable on a natural channel for the real-time flow forecasting and to test the model performances with various different model options such as deterministic or stochastic, linear or nonlinear routing. The selected area is the main Han River starting from the Paldang Dam site to the Indogyo station passing through the city of Seoul. It is concluded that the developed model is feasible and produces reliable forecast system on the study area.

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Kim, Jeong‐,Bae,Im, Eun‐,Soon,Bae, Deg‐,Hyo Wiley 2020 International Journal of Climatology Vol. No.

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>This study assesses the potential changes in regional hydroclimates over South Korea in response to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming above preindustrial levels based on multimodel ensemble projections forced by a representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario. The meteorological inputs, which are derived from five global climate models after removing systematic bias using quantile mapping, are fed into a distributed hydrological model, the variable infiltration capacity model, to estimate the hydrologic responses to different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in future periods. The changes in seasonal mean precipitation differ between monsoon and intermonsoon seasons. An increase in summer precipitation and a decrease in winter precipitation commonly occur under 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming, resulting in intensified precipitation seasonality. However, changes in spring and fall precipitation show opposite change signals or relatively little robustness (as measured by model agreement) in response to different degrees of warming. Spatial and seasonal changes in precipitation are directly transferred to runoff patterns, increasing the disparity between wet and dry seasons. Global warming also leads to changes in the distributions of daily precipitation and streamflow, and the projected changes systematically involve an increase in high‐intensity precipitation and a decrease in relatively low‐intensity precipitation. This behaviour tends to be amplified under 2.0°C in comparison to 1.5°C of global warming, with potential implications for increased water stress under a much warmer climate. More importantly, under 2.0°C of global warming, the magnitude of extremes such as the annual maximum day flow in Korean basins is likely to be enhanced. This study demonstrates that changes in precipitation characteristics can explicitly modulate runoff and subsequently streamflow patterns, suggesting positive benefits of half a degree less warming in terms of the frequency and intensity of extreme streamflow.</P>

Monthly dam inflow forecasts using weather forecasting information and neuro-fuzzy technique

BAE, DEG-HYO,JEONG, DAE MYUNG,KIM, GWANGSEOB Informa UK (TaylorFrancis) 2007 Hydrological sciences journal Vol.52 No.1

Long-term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Jung, Il-Won,Chang, Heejun John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2008 Hydrological processes Vol.22 No.14

<P>The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long-term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south-western regions of the study area during the study period. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south-western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</P>

A PRELIMINARY STUDY FOR THE COUPLED ATMOSPHERS-STREAMFLOW MODELING IN KOREA

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Chung, Jun-Seok,Kwon, Won-Tae Korea Water Resources Association 2000 Water engineering research Vol.1 No.1

This study presents some results of a preliminary study for the coupled precipitation and river flow prediction system. The model system in based on three numerical models, Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation model for generating atmospheric variables. Soil-Plant-Snow model for computing interactions within soil-canopy-snow system as well as the energy and water exchange between the atmosphere and underlying surfaces, and TOPMODEL for simulating stream flow, subsurface flow, and water tabled depth in an watershed. The selected study area is the 2,703 $\alpha_4$ $\km_2$ Soyang River basin with outlet at Soyang dam site. In addition to providing the results of rainfall and stream flow predictions, some results of DEM and GIS application are presented. It is obvious that the accurate river flow predictions are highly dependant on the accurate predictation predictions.

Rainfall Estimation for Hydrologic Applications

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Georgakakos, K.P.,Rajagopal, R. Korea Water Resources Association 1996 Korean journal of hydrosciences Vol.7 No.-

The subject of the paper is the selection of the number and location of raingauge stations among existing ones for the computation of mean areal precipitation and for use as input of real-time flow prediction models. The weighted average method developed by National Weather Service was used to compute MAP over the Boone River basin in Iowa with a 40 year daily data set. Two different searching methods were used to find local optimal solutions. An operational rainfall-runoff model was used to determine the optimal location and number of stations for flow prediction.

Uncertainty estimation of the SURR model parameters and input data for the Imjin River basin using the GLUE method

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Trinh, Ha Linh,Nguyen, Hoang Minh Elsevier 2018 JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH Vol.20 No.-

<P>This study investigated the flow simulation uncertainty caused by the model parameters and input data for the Imjin River basin using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and the Sejong University rainfall-runoff (SURR) model for four events during 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Based on the nonsystematic errors caused by the rainfall interpolation process, the input uncertainty was estimated and compared with the model parameter uncertainty for the regions with different data information situations. The reasons for the high or low uncertainty of the model parameters and input were also analyzed. Two indices were used to examine the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation: the ratio of the number of observations falling inside the uncertainty interval (p - factor) and the width of the uncertainty interval (r - factor). The results indicated that the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation of the northern area (Gunnam station) was significantly higher than that of the southern areas (Jeonkok and Jeogseong stations) for both model parameter and input uncertainty. In the southern areas, the parameter uncertainty was higher than the input uncertainty. However, the northern area exhibited the opposite trend, with the former being lower than the latter. Additionally, the uncertainty was also shown in the time of the hydrograph. The uncertainty at the peak flow was higher than that at the beginning or the end of each event.</P>

실시간 앙상블 가뭄전망정보 생산 체계 구축 및 평가

배덕효(Deg-Hyo Bae),안중배(Joong-Bae Ahn),김현경(Hyun-Kyung Kim),김헌애(Heon-Ae Kim),손경환(Kyung-Hwan Son),조세라(Se-Ra Cho),정의석(Ui-Seok Jung) 한국기상학회 2013 대기 Vol.23 No.1

기후변화에 의한 건설시공환경 변화 분석

배덕효(Bae Deg Hyo),이병주(Lee Byong Ju),정일원(Jung Il Won) 대한토목학회 2008 대한토목학회논문집 D Vol.28 No.4D

본 연구는 과거 기상관측자료와 IPCC SRES A2 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 기후변화가 건설시공환경 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 과거기간은 전국 57개 기상관측소의 30년(1975~2004년)기간, 미래기간에 2025s(2011~2040년)와 2065s(2051~2080년)기간의 일강수량과 일평균기온자료를 이용하였다. 관측소별로 연강수량과 연 평균기온에 대한 경향성분석을 수행한 결과 대부분의 관측소에서 연강수량과 연평균기온이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 기후 변화와 시공환경간의 관계지표로 공사별 작업가능일수와 극치호우사상 발생일수를 선정하였다. 관계지표에 대해 선형회귀분석과 Mann-Kendall test를 이용하여 경향성 분석을 수행한 결과, 연별 작업가능일수와 극치호우사상 발생일수는 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, A2 시나리오 상황에서 작업가능일수와 극치호우사상 발생일수의 변화를 분석한 결과 관측자료를 이용한 결과와 유사한 결과를 보였다. 결과적으로 기후변화로 인해 작업가능일수의 증가와 더불어 집중호우로 인한 건설현업에서의 직ㆍ간접적 피해도 증가할 것으로 전망되었다. The objective of this study is the evaluation of the impact on the construction condition due to historical observation data and IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario. For this purpose, daily precipitation and daily mean temperature data which have been observed over the past 30 years by Korea Meteorological Administration are collected and applied. Also, A2 scenarios during 2011~2040 and 2051~2080 are used for this analysis. According to the results of trend analyses on annual precipitation and annual mean temperature, they are on the increase mostly. The available working day and the day occurred an extreme event are used as con-elation indices between climate factor and construction condition. For the past observation data, Linear regression and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the trend on the con-elation index. As a result, both working day and extreme event occurrence day are increased. Likewise, for the future, variation analysis showed the similar result to that of the past and the occurrence frequency of extreme events is increased obviously. Therefore, we can project to increase flood damage potential on the construction site by climate change.

도시유역에서의 레이더 강수 추정

배덕효(Deg-Hyo Bae) 대한토목학회 2005 대한토목학회지 Vol.53 No.9